I just passed skill level 210 in blacksmithing. At every step along the way, I found that the materials were worth more than the finished goods. As the other poster indicated, Copper and Rough Stone sell well in the AH. If I remember right, stacks of copper ars were going for about 40s and rough stone for 25-30s. 4 bars for a return of 67c on a pair of pants is less than 3.5s for the 20 bars you need to make 5 pairs. To make money, I'd sell the bars. I kept trying to level-up to make bigger and better stuff. I found that it was almost always cheaper to buy armor at the AH than to make it myself. As you progress, the products you make require gems, rare earths and leather. Some even require leather armor as an ingredient. I chose the "Weaponsmith" specialty at level 200. Now I'm trying to come up with (I think the numbers are right) the following in addition to what the supply vendor sells:
88 Iron
56 Mithril
16 Gold
12 Moonstones
8 Shadowgems
8 Citrines
2 Black Pearls
28 Heavy Leather
4 Thick Leather
20 Heavy Grinding Stones
4 Solid Grinding Stones
The weapons I make out of this stuff (I think) get given away for free to earn the specialization. You have to buy the plans to make the stuff too. This stuff is probably worth about 30 or so gold. I sure hope it pays off in the end!