Forum Settings
       
1 2 3 Next »
Reply To Thread

The End of an OdysseyFollow

#52 Jul 11 2011 at 7:56 AM Rating: Excellent
Skelly Poker Since 2008
*****
16,781 posts
Majivo wrote:
Your entire argument is "we can't prove what would've happened without the space program". You yourself said it's impossible to prove or disprove a "what if" sort of scenario. You then defend the space program based on exactly that sort of scenario. It doesn't follow.
Huh?

What was done is not the same as what might have been done. Also it holds more value.
____________________________
Alma wrote:
I lost my post
#53 Jul 11 2011 at 8:21 AM Rating: Excellent
Avatar
******
29,919 posts
Majivo wrote:
Your entire argument is "we can't prove what would've happened without the space program". You yourself said it's impossible to prove or disprove a "what if" sort of scenario. You then defend the space program based on exactly that sort of scenario. It doesn't follow.

Right, so you're just ignoring all that then and going with the "lets poke things with a stick instead of presenting any kind of counterargument and see what happens approach" then. Got it.

to reiterate,
1. The space program HAS accompleshed X, Y, Z.
2. X, y, Z were accompleshed to meet specific tehcnical goals 1, 2 and 3, which had, at the time of discovery very few potential applications otherwise, and in all probability would not have been looked at outside of a space program continuiuty because the need for that technology would not have existed outside the context of space exploration.
3. Many space program technologies were adapted for other uses only after they were discovered. Given the significant cost of research and development on several of those technologies, they would not have been funded without a specific end goal, and their alternative uses again, were not known until after they were discovered.
4. Congress will give you major funding for a rocket or an atomic weapon. They won't give you major funding to develop something that might someday become an LCD panel.
5. If we play the what if game using probabilities and known research and cultural patterns, and what influence the space program had on other polities, we can make educated guesses, which, while still impossible to prove, have a likelyhood of occurance factor. We know that mismanagement of the Soviet moon rocket program and the Buran shuttle eventually brought about the financial strain that caused the soviet union to collapse, amongst other factors for example. This is a known, demonstrable effect, and if we were to somehow remove that budget strain from their equation, it is likely the soviet union would not have collapsed when it did.

There are dozens of examples for how the space program has shaped the world, ion our case for the better. Aside from the cancellation of a major supercollider, there are very few proposed major research projects the space program scavenged funding from over the course of its existance. Those that demonstrated a better return on investment got funding.

Edited, Jul 11th 2011 7:22am by Kaolian
____________________________
Arch Duke Kaolian Drachensborn, lvl 95 Ranger, Unrest Server
Tech support forum | FAQ (Support) | Mobile Zam: http://m.zam.com (Premium only)
Forum Rules
#54 Jul 11 2011 at 9:48 AM Rating: Good
****
6,471 posts
I don't disagree with the fact that we've accomplished much through the space program. Would we have all those developments without it? Well that's kind of impossible to say, since there are a bunch of different hypotheticals to examine. Say, for example, that we didn't attempt to land on the moon first, but still dumped our efforts into military research and technology. We might have some similar outcomes. Perhaps other motivations may have resulted in the same developments, perhaps not. Who's to say?

What does matter, is that nostalgia shouldn't be governing how we handle the space shuttle program, nor any other space-related goals. It's a different era, with a completely different context. The same rules don't apply anymore.

Our current space travel approach was simply not cutting it. I'd rather that they go back to the drawing board, then to let it limp along aimlessly as it has been. It needs efficiency, and the only way to ensure that is with a clear focus and a comprehensive plan.
#55 Jul 11 2011 at 10:21 AM Rating: Good
Skelly Poker Since 2008
*****
16,781 posts
Eske Esquire wrote:
I don't disagree with the fact that we've accomplished much through the space program. Would we have all those developments without it? Well that's kind of impossible to say, since there are a bunch of different hypotheticals to examine. Say, for example, that we didn't attempt to land on the moon first, but still dumped our efforts into military research and technology. We might have some similar outcomes. Perhaps other motivations may have resulted in the same developments, perhaps not. Who's to say?

What does matter, is that nostalgia shouldn't be governing how we handle the space shuttle program, nor any other space-related goals. It's a different era, with a completely different context. The same rules don't apply anymore.

Our current space travel approach was simply not cutting it. I'd rather that they go back to the drawing board, then to let it limp along aimlessly as it has been. It needs efficiency, and the only way to ensure that is with a clear focus and a comprehensive plan.

I'm not sure why this thread turned into a trip down memory lane for some. No federally run program should be governed by nostalgia. What does that even mean?

____________________________
Alma wrote:
I lost my post
#56 Jul 11 2011 at 10:31 AM Rating: Good
****
6,471 posts
Elinda wrote:
No federally run program should be governed by nostalgia. What does that even mean?


Bush's "We're going back to the moon!" plan comes to mind.
#57 Jul 11 2011 at 2:09 PM Rating: Good
Nadenu wrote:
Seriously, I'm one of those that doesn't want to see our space program go away either. Maybe for me it's just the romantic views I have of it [..]


Smiley: nod

Going to space would be kinda awesome.
#58 Jul 11 2011 at 2:11 PM Rating: Good
*******
50,767 posts

Now we are a family again.
____________________________
George Carlin wrote:
I think it’s the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately.
#59REDACTED, Posted: Jul 11 2011 at 2:12 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Shouldn't have been wasting money on it in the first place.
#60 Jul 11 2011 at 8:15 PM Rating: Good
Encyclopedia
******
35,568 posts
Eske Esquire wrote:
I don't disagree with the fact that we've accomplished much through the space program. Would we have all those developments without it? Well that's kind of impossible to say, since there are a bunch of different hypotheticals to examine. Say, for example, that we didn't attempt to land on the moon first, but still dumped our efforts into military research and technology. We might have some similar outcomes. Perhaps other motivations may have resulted in the same developments, perhaps not. Who's to say?


Who's to say isn't really a very strong argument though. Kao is right. I suspect that most people just don't understand that many of the most important technological advances made in the last half century (longer most likely) didn't come about because someone decided to research that specific thing. They started with what appeared to be an unrelated need (or even set of needs), and then after developing a whole bunch of things to accomplish that, then had other people come along and think of different applications for the various things that were developed along the way.

Technology research isn't linear. In most cases, it branches out into new things out of earlier developments which no one thought were significant along the way. One day, someone looks at a set of developments, shuffles them around in his head and thinks "Hey! With this, that, and the other thing, we could do.... <new thing no one thought of>". It happens all the time. No one planned to make home computers. But they developed the technology to make them (yup, related to the space program and cold war as well), and then one day someone thought "Hey! We can use these components, put them together in X way, and make a computer that can fit on someone's desk!". No one saw it coming. For other reasons, the components became more modular and smaller and energy efficient until it was possible. It was not a goal at any point.


I just think that it's a mistake to think that all we have to do is let people think of what they want to make and it'll happen. We have to allow as much "random" research as possible to happen to maximize the rate at which truly new and game-changing technologies will appear. And funding research which pushes the envelope of what is possible does seem to provide the best chances of those new things occurring.

The space program created so many new tech opportunities exactly because it pushed that envelope. They had to figure out how to make materials for which there was no other earthly reason to make. They had to figure out how to make things lighter and stronger due to the weight and G-force needs of space travel. They had to develop automated systems which were not needed anywhere else. They needed to develop tooling to tolerances well beyond what anything else required. All of these things saw applications in other areas.


Might we have developed those if we'd spent that money elsewhere? Maybe. But it's hard to argue a maybe against a known yes. Now, to be fair, the current direction NASA has been heading isn't so promising in terms of new tech development. Re-using existing tech to just make cheap robotic launches to do various things in space doesn't push the envelope much. Pushing for a 100% reusable manned orbiter would. Pushing for construction of space-2-space cargo-haulers would. Pushing for using the ISS to do more than just hang around in orbit would. We're wasting a huge opportunity with that thing to be honest. One of the biggest obstacles to near-earth space travel is a platform from which to launch and refuel craft (manned or not). Yet we still continue to largely ignore it.


There are a lot of wasted opportunities if we stop pushing for manned exploration of space. Of all the things we spend money on, IMO we've gotten by far the biggest return from our space program.

Quote:
What does matter, is that nostalgia shouldn't be governing how we handle the space shuttle program, nor any other space-related goals. It's a different era, with a completely different context. The same rules don't apply anymore.


Agreed. But we should have replaced the shuttle with something better. Had we made that a priority, we'd have accomplished it. And having accomplished it, we wouldn't just have a new nifty way of getting people to/from the ISS or low-orbit, but we'd be able to leverage all the advancements which would have to be made along the way towards developing such a thing. Who knows, someone might have come up with something really radical which might just revolutionize flight as we know it along the way. But we don't know what that might be, because we're not spending the time and money to research it. If we're satisfied with sending cargo and people up on 40+ year old rocket designs, then we wont ever find out, will we?

Quote:
Our current space travel approach was simply not cutting it. I'd rather that they go back to the drawing board, then to let it limp along aimlessly as it has been. It needs efficiency, and the only way to ensure that is with a clear focus and a comprehensive plan.


Absolutely. But that would have come much better if we'd gone in the other direction and demanded some tangible and difficult goal to be met. Instead, we've gotten sorta limp-wristed objectives, calls for less expensive missions, and a whole lot of nothing exciting accomplished. Some things have been neato (ion drive tests for example), but I just think that abandoning the manned mission parts of space travel will ***** us in the long run. We really should have gone in the opposite direction IMO.
____________________________
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
#61 Jul 11 2011 at 8:22 PM Rating: Decent
Encyclopedia
******
35,568 posts
Let me put this another way in terms of tech development. In many cases we don't know what can be done until we have developed the technology to do it. Then, once it's there, someone thinks of how to use it in a novel way that changes the world.

Because of that, you *can't* just replace such far reaching and difficult research funding with directed funding. You don't know what's possible, so how can you allocate funding for it? It's the same argument I've made about cell phones in the past. If we'd decided in 1980 to fund research into a communication system which would allow every person in the world to communicate with anyone else anywhere else in the world, we'd have the worlds most extensive public pay phone system right now.

No one would have thought of cell phones. Ever. Not if they'd started out researching a phone system. There were too many components that simply didn't exist even as ideas at that time. That's why research can't just be directed so narrowly.
____________________________
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
#62 Jul 11 2011 at 8:44 PM Rating: Excellent
****
6,471 posts
gbaji wrote:
Absolutely. But that would have come much better if we'd gone in the other direction and demanded some tangible and difficult goal to be met. Instead, we've gotten sorta limp-wristed objectives, calls for less expensive missions, and a whole lot of nothing exciting accomplished. Some things have been neato (ion drive tests for example), but I just think that abandoning the manned mission parts of space travel will ***** us in the long run. We really should have gone in the opposite direction IMO.


Yeah, I more-or-less agree. I've nothing against the space program, honestly. They've been hamstrung, and left without a cohesive vision. I don't think that's their fault.

My hope is that this'll be the chance to reevaluate, and come back with something stronger. I could certainly be wrong. A lot of it hinges on how the budding commercial sector develops. There should be some interesting developments coming out in the next 2 years to that regard.

Guess we'll see.

Edited, Jul 11th 2011 10:45pm by Eske
#63 Jul 12 2011 at 12:47 AM Rating: Excellent
Avatar
******
29,919 posts
Astronaut Ice Cream.

I rest my case.
____________________________
Arch Duke Kaolian Drachensborn, lvl 95 Ranger, Unrest Server
Tech support forum | FAQ (Support) | Mobile Zam: http://m.zam.com (Premium only)
Forum Rules
#64 Jul 12 2011 at 3:17 PM Rating: Excellent
Liberal Conspiracy
*******
TILT
That shit sucks. You buy it once when you're six years old and at the museum and talk your parents into it and, hopefully, you don't eat it again unless you're actually in space.
____________________________
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#65 Jul 14 2011 at 3:24 PM Rating: Default
-REDACTED-
Scholar
***
1,150 posts
1 2 3 Next »
Reply To Thread

Colors Smileys Quote OriginalQuote Checked Help

 

Recent Visitors: 167 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (167)