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#77 Jun 08 2011 at 8:20 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Posted: 2011-06-08 09:15:29

Get a job.
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#78 Jun 08 2011 at 9:54 AM Rating: Decent
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Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


On the other hand, failing to run a deficit is essentially a waste of taxation, even if you call it saving.

I am of course talking without context to our massive debt.

Edited, Jun 8th 2011 8:55am by Kachi
#79 Jun 08 2011 at 10:50 AM Rating: Good
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Kachi wrote:
Quote:

Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


On the other hand, failing to run a deficit is essentially a waste of taxation, even if you call it saving.

I am of course talking without context to our massive debt.

Edited, Jun 8th 2011 8:55am by Kachi


No, the optimal number is +/- 0. Debt means you are losing taxpayer funds to outside investors/nation, and a surplus (beyond a certain level) means your taxes are too high for the services provided. You'd only want a high value of debt if you were planning on massive QE or if you had a planned insolvency to be used as diplomatic leverage, but that's a technique on the border between lunacy and genius. Then again, a similar situation happened naught but a few years ago, albeit on a non-governmental level.
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#80 Jun 08 2011 at 12:13 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Posted: 2011-06-08 09:15:29

Get a job.


Hah! Was wondering if anyone would notice that. I agreed to cover my boss on call for one freaking night. Apparently, people are still working in Bangalore at 5:30AM PDT and expect their problems fixed... pronto!
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#81 Jun 08 2011 at 12:18 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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gbaji wrote:
bsphil wrote:
gbaji wrote:
bsphil wrote:
gbaji wrote:
So. Hypothetically, if I increased the budget to equal the entire US GDP, it would be fine as long as I increased the taxes to 100% on everything? If not, then isn't your "simple" rule not really enough?
Well that was a stupid hypothetical. Did you really see the need to bring it up?
Answer the question. It should be self-evident why it's relevant. Do you agree that there would be a problem if both government spending and revenue were equal to 100% of GDP? Think it through.
Do you think spending that high is in any way even plausible?


Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


Which in turn leads us to conclude that there is a difference between running a deficit because we cut taxes and running one because we increased spending. As I said earlier, one trends us lower while the other trends us higher. It's not as simple as just looking at the deficit and arguing to close it. And it's absolutely not as simple as just saying that if you increase spending you should increase taxes to pay for it. There are negatives to doing that regardless of deficit effects. And I believe that focusing solely on the deficit while ignoring that bigger picture is a mistake.

Clear enough now?
It sounds like you're assuming that liberals always want to increase government spending.

If the economy were in great shape I'd like to see spending go down and taxes go up - that's how you actually deal with a deficit. But, you don't do that when (in your own words from another thread) the economy hasn't even begun to recover.

Timelordwho wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Quote:

Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


On the other hand, failing to run a deficit is essentially a waste of taxation, even if you call it saving.

I am of course talking without context to our massive debt.

Edited, Jun 8th 2011 8:55am by Kachi


No, the optimal number is +/- 0. Debt means you are losing taxpayer funds to outside investors/nation, and a surplus (beyond a certain level) means your taxes are too high for the services provided. You'd only want a high value of debt if you were planning on massive QE or if you had a planned insolvency to be used as diplomatic leverage, but that's a technique on the border between lunacy and genius. Then again, a similar situation happened naught but a few years ago, albeit on a non-governmental level.
Always hitting 0 is foolish though, especially when the economy runs in ~5 year cycles. Deficit spending is fine if you're going to counterbalance it with a surplus when the economy picks back up. Unfortunately we never really had a recovery for the working class the last decade.



Edited, Jun 8th 2011 1:26pm by bsphil
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#82 Jun 08 2011 at 12:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Timelordwho wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Quote:

Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


On the other hand, failing to run a deficit is essentially a waste of taxation, even if you call it saving.

I am of course talking without context to our massive debt.

Edited, Jun 8th 2011 8:55am by Kachi


No, the optimal number is +/- 0.


Correct. However, it's more or less impossible to hit that number perfectly and it's better to err on the side of a deficit than the other way around.

Quote:
Debt means you are losing taxpayer funds to outside investors/nation, and a surplus (beyond a certain level) means your taxes are too high for the services provided.


But which is "worse"? Assume you can't accurately hit that +/- 0 figure. It's better to run a deficit than a surplus. Why? Because a surplus is "idle money". It's nearly the only way an economy can actually have truly idle money. It's money that isn't invested and earning interest and/or being used to hire people, and buy goods and services, growing the economy, etc. Barring some rare economic conditions, you will lose much more money from an idle surplus than the cost of the interest on the same amount of deficit.


It's the reason why even though Bush ran deficits for every year of his term, debt as a percentage of GDP only rose slightly and stabilized in the 36% range. Obviously, it has to be a relatively small amount (less than 2% of GDP, or around $300B in the case of the US), but the economy will outgrow the debt you're adding, making it still a net positive.
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#83 Jun 08 2011 at 12:29 PM Rating: Excellent
bsphil wrote:
It sounds like you're assuming that liberals always want to increase government spending.

If the economy were in great shape I'd like to see spending go down and taxes go up - that's how you actually deal with a deficit. But, you don't do that when (in your own words from another thread) the economy hasn't even begun to recover.

The only way most liberals want to see spending go down is to decrease funds to intelligence & military organizations. On ineffective & inefficient social programs/wealth redistribution payments, the majority would like to see spending increase. The United States federal government only has a debt burden because it has taken on so much extra-constitutionally that it can't fund it all through tax revenue. I am not suggesting that it doesn't have the fortitude to try, but that it is impossible to fund all of the programs that the federal government embarks on through tax revenue. The only way to eliminate the burden is to normalize taxation, removing most if not all of the exemptions, exceptions & exclusions from the tax code, eliminate the large majority of the social programs that exists today, and decrease spending, and the size of government, by something on the order of 30-35%.
#84 Jun 08 2011 at 12:33 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
It's better to run a deficit than a surplus.
Incorrect. A surplus can be refunded with the only loss being lost interest over a single year. A deficit means you'll have to take more money later and pay out interest, usually over multiple years.
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#85 Jun 08 2011 at 12:39 PM Rating: Decent
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MoebiusLord wrote:
bsphil wrote:
It sounds like you're assuming that liberals always want to increase government spending.

If the economy were in great shape I'd like to see spending go down and taxes go up - that's how you actually deal with a deficit. But, you don't do that when (in your own words from another thread) the economy hasn't even begun to recover.

The only way most liberals want to see spending go down is to decrease funds to intelligence & military organizations. On ineffective & inefficient social programs/wealth redistribution payments, the majority would like to see spending increase. The United States federal government only has a debt burden because it has taken on so much extra-constitutionally that it can't fund it all through tax revenue. I am not suggesting that it doesn't have the fortitude to try, but that it is impossible to fund all of the programs that the federal government embarks on through tax revenue. The only way to eliminate the burden is to normalize taxation, removing most if not all of the exemptions, exceptions & exclusions from the tax code, eliminate the large majority of the social programs that exists today, and decrease spending, and the size of government, by something on the order of 30-35%.
In some cases if it's a good social program the spending should automatically decrease in strong economic times because there would be less need for it. But we'd need an actual middle/working class recovery for that. Also, and this may just be a misinterpretation of what you mean, but you're looking at all social programs as "spending" or "costs". Putting money into education (for example) is an investment - there are benefits to having a better educated society/workforce/etc. Unfortunately, although I'd call it the most important investment overall, it takes the longest to see the benefits, making it so much easier to cut in the short term.
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
If no one debated with me, then I wouldn't post here anymore.
Take the hint guys, please take the hint.
gbaji wrote:
I'm not getting my news from anywhere Joph.
#86 Jun 08 2011 at 12:41 PM Rating: Good
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bsphil wrote:
It sounds like you're assuming that liberals always want to increase government spending.


They don't?

Quote:
If the economy were in great shape I'd like to see spending go down and taxes go up - that's how you actually deal with a deficit. But, you don't do that when (in your own words from another thread) the economy hasn't even begun to recover.


But, as I said in that same thread, the economy hasn't begun to recover because we've spent (and are still spending) too much money. Debt and deficits are too high and everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop (taxes going up). No one's going to aggressively invest their assets if they think taxes will go up. It's a self-creating problem. If you do raise taxes, those with the ability to do so (which, not coincidentally are those most likely to be targeted by those taxes), will find ways to shuffle their money into other markets and avoid most or all of the taxes. The net effect is still a slow economy and no additional revenue even though we raised the tax rates.


The solution is to commit to not raising taxes. Make that promise and make it look like you'll keep it, and those with the money will invest it in the US economy again. But to do that you must cut spending back to where it was a few years ago. Failing to do that leaves us with no option but to raise taxes. People with money know this and wont commit that money, and we'll be left in the mud spinning our tires.

Quote:
Always hitting 0 is foolish though, especially when the economy runs in ~5 year cycles. Deficit spending is fine if you're going to counterbalance it with a surplus when the economy picks back up. Unfortunately we never really had a recovery for the working class the last decade.


Partly true. Deficit spending is fine as long as the economic growth keeps pace or outgrows the resulting debt. You don't need to *ever* run a surplus to "pay back" the money you borrowed. In principle, it's not much different than household debt. As long as the percentage of debt to income stays constant, then the relative amount of interest stays constant. The big difference is that the idle money problem is reversed between household and government economic models. Money paid in interest on household debt is money that you aren't putting into your bank account, or investment portfolio, or whatever. But the government's money is a subset of the money in the economy as a whole. If the options are "increase revenue" and "borrow money", borrowing money is better since an increase in government revenue means a decrease of money in the private economy, and a decrease in the economic benefits that money would otherwise generate.
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#87 Jun 08 2011 at 12:49 PM Rating: Excellent
bsphil wrote:
In some cases if it's a good social program the spending should automatically decrease in strong economic times because there would be less need for it. But we'd need an actual middle/working class recovery for that. Also, and this may just be a misinterpretation of what you mean, but you're looking at all social programs as "spending" or "costs". Putting money into education (for example) is an investment - there are benefits to having a better educated society/workforce/etc. Unfortunately, although I'd call it the most important investment overall, it takes the longest to see the benefits, making it so much easier to cut in the short term.

You and I start from opposing sides of the government coin, though. You believe that social programs (even education) are in the purview of the federal government, I believe they are not. There is no good reason to federalize education spending in a republic. There is no good reason to federalize any social spending in a republic. There are reasons, and they have been expanded upon at great length by people with a vested interest in the increase of spending on those programs, but none of them are good reasons. These things should all fall under the authority of the individual states. Once you return to that model, you can do whatever the hell you want in your state, just don't presume to require me and my state to do the same.
#88 Jun 08 2011 at 1:18 PM Rating: Good
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Uglysasquatch wrote:
Quote:
It's better to run a deficit than a surplus.
Incorrect. A surplus can be refunded with the only loss being lost interest over a single year.


That's not the only cost. I mean, I suppose you could call it "interest", but each dollar rolling around in the free market has more than just a few percent relative effect. That interest is simply the economic value result to the money itself. But along the way, it created other positive economic effects. It's like saying that the only positive effect from you having a job is the money you earn.

Quote:
A deficit means you'll have to take more money later and pay out interest, usually over multiple years.


Yup. Still not equal to the positive effects of leaving that money in the economy instead of having it sit idle in a government account.
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#89 Jun 08 2011 at 1:19 PM Rating: Good
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You're right, it's not equal. It's worse.
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#90 Jun 08 2011 at 1:36 PM Rating: Excellent
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All the above prattle aside, Cain admitted himself that he has zero foreign policy experience and little knowledge about those spheres. He's promised to "read up" on it but I'm not sure what he brings to the table. Romney will probably have the "Economic Wunderboy" thing sewn up, so what do we need the CEO of a regional pizza chain for?
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#91 Jun 08 2011 at 1:39 PM Rating: Good
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Obviously for a ******** congressional pizza party.
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#92 Jun 08 2011 at 1:54 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
All the above prattle aside, Cain admitted himself that he has zero foreign policy experience and little knowledge about those spheres. He's promised to "read up" on it but I'm not sure what he brings to the table. Romney will probably have the "Economic Wunderboy" thing sewn up, so what do we need the CEO of a regional pizza chain for?
He also vowed that all bills will be three pages and under in length, so anyone can read them and debate what President Cain is talking about over dinner as a family.

He might have been joking, though. But dinner would likely be pizza.
#93 Jun 08 2011 at 1:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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LockeColeMA wrote:
He also vowed that all bills will be three pages and under in length, so anyone can read them and debate what President Cain is talking about over dinner as a family.

He might have been joking, though.

I haven't been getting my copy of the Herman Cain newsletter (it's with my PC Gamer magazines) so... are you serious?
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#94 Jun 08 2011 at 3:12 PM Rating: Decent
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Timelordwho wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Quote:

Continue the thought process. If it's implausible at 100%, don't you think maybe there's some negative prior to that point? So perhaps there's an economic benefit to having a government which only consumes 20% of GDP rather than 25%, or 30%, or 50%? Thus, we should concern ourselves, not just with whether spending and revenue are "balanced" but also with how "high" those numbers are relative to GDP.


On the other hand, failing to run a deficit is essentially a waste of taxation, even if you call it saving.

I am of course talking without context to our massive debt.

Edited, Jun 8th 2011 8:55am by Kachi


No, the optimal number is +/- 0. Debt means you are losing taxpayer funds to outside investors/nation, and a surplus (beyond a certain level) means your taxes are too high for the services provided. You'd only want a high value of debt if you were planning on massive QE or if you had a planned insolvency to be used as diplomatic leverage, but that's a technique on the border between lunacy and genius. Then again, a similar situation happened naught but a few years ago, albeit on a non-governmental level.


Debt doesn't necessarily have to be to outside nations though, and there's nothing necessarily wrong with having to pay on outside interest accruals provided the societal investment yields greater returns. I see your point, though.

MoebiusLord wrote:

You and I start from opposing sides of the government coin, though. You believe that social programs (even education) are in the purview of the federal government, I believe they are not. There is no good reason to federalize education spending in a republic. There is no good reason to federalize any social spending in a republic. There are reasons, and they have been expanded upon at great length by people with a vested interest in the increase of spending on those programs, but none of them are good reasons. These things should all fall under the authority of the individual states. Once you return to that model, you can do whatever the hell you want in your state, just don't presume to require me and my state to do the same.


I tend to think that providing equitable education to children is a good reason to federalize education, and if the states could be trusted to uphold that standard I'm not necessarily opposed to decentralization, but I really don't see a need or advantage in it.

But we probably just have irreconcilable values about the importance of freedom versus the value of collective benefit.

lolgaxe wrote:
Obviously for a ******** congressional pizza party.


Have you ever eaten Godfather's pizza? More like a wretchin' congressional pizza party.
#95 Jun 08 2011 at 3:45 PM Rating: Good
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Kachi wrote:
Timelordwho wrote:
You'd only want a high value of debt if you were planning on massive QE or if you had a planned insolvency to be used as diplomatic leverage, but that's a technique on the border between lunacy and genius.


Debt doesn't necessarily have to be to outside nations though, and there's nothing necessarily wrong with having to pay on outside interest accruals provided the societal investment yields greater returns. I see your point, though.


He's tossing a strawman in there though. No one's arguing in favor of "high debt". The issue is small amounts of deficit versus small amounts of surplus. So, if you have a $15T GDP, and you think you're going to spend somewhere around 20% of that, but your combined accuracy in terms of predicting the real resulting spending and revenue is +/- 5%, you need to allow for up to a $300B dollar difference between spending and revenue. You'll want to aim for a $150B deficit, knowing that it might be lower than that, or it might be up to double that, but you wont have a surplus.

We're still talking about an amount that is just 0-2% of GDP. It's not the strawman "huge debt" he's talking about. It's relatively tiny amounts of debt. And at those levels, it is better to run a deficit than a surplus. Obviously, it's not good to run a deficit that's 8-10% of GDP (like we have for the last couple years). But no one's advocating that.

Quote:
I tend to think that providing equitable education to children is a good reason to federalize education, and if the states could be trusted to uphold that standard I'm not necessarily opposed to decentralization, but I really don't see a need or advantage in it.


Education is one of the things which is mostly paid for at the state and local level though, so this is really an irrelevant argument. The bigger ticket items at the federal level are social security, medicare, medicaid, income security, disability, etc. Those are followed by a bunch of smaller discretionary stuff like education, infrastructure, subsidies, etc. It all adds up, of course. But if you want to argue for why the federal government is necessary to provide something, you should really talk about social security or medicare. Those are by far the biggest ticket items.

Quote:
But we probably just have irreconcilable values about the importance of freedom versus the value of collective benefit.


That's probably true (compared to me as well). I believe, and I'll got out on a limb and guess that Moe does as well, that the only collective benefits worth sacrificing any freedom for are those which are necessary for the protection of our freedoms in the first place. We don't need to provide retirement and health care for our citizens at the federal level. It's completely unnecessary. It might be a nice thing to do, but we don't have to do it at all.


We shouldn't give up freedom for "nice things" though.
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#96 Jun 08 2011 at 4:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
LockeColeMA wrote:
He also vowed that all bills will be three pages and under in length, so anyone can read them and debate what President Cain is talking about over dinner as a family.

He might have been joking, though.

I haven't been getting my copy of the Herman Cain newsletter (it's with my PC Gamer magazines) so... are you serious?

Herman Cain wrote:
Don't try to pass a 2,700 page bill. And even they didn't read it! You and I didn't have time to read it. We were too busy trying to live, send our kids to school. That's why I am only going to allow small bills -- three pages. You'll have time to read that one over the dinner table.


In the video of him, the audience laughs and he smiles, hence it likely being a joke.

Edit:

He isn't comfortable appointing Muslims to any positions either. That's not a joke though - obviously it was gotcha journalism.
Quote:
KEYES: You came under a bit of controversy this week for some of the comments made about Muslims in general. Would you be comfortable appointing a Muslim, either in your cabinet or as a federal judge?

CAIN: No, I will not. And here’s why. There is this creeping attempt, there is this attempt to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government. It does not belong in our government. This is what happened in Europe. And little by little, to try and be politically correct, they made this little change, they made this little change. And now they’ve got a social problem that they don’t know what to do with hardly.


Edited, Jun 8th 2011 6:03pm by LockeColeMA
#97 Jun 08 2011 at 5:49 PM Rating: Decent
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That right there is a bit ambiguous. Sure, there shouldn't be any religious "law" in our government but a person's faith shouldn't be relevant. We've got Christians, Jews and whatnot; why not Muslims? Unless you're under the delusion that all Muslims are intent on infiltrating and breaking the West, though that already seems to be part of the GOP dogma.
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#98 Jun 08 2011 at 6:38 PM Rating: Good
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Yeah, France banning the burka was sooo PC gone wild!
#99 Jun 08 2011 at 6:49 PM Rating: Excellent
LockeColeMA wrote:

Quote:
KEYES: You came under a bit of controversy this week for some of the comments made about Muslims in general. Would you be comfortable appointing a Muslim, either in your cabinet or as a federal judge?

CAIN: No, I will not. And here’s why. There is this creeping attempt, there is this attempt to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government. It does not belong in our government. This is what happened in Europe. And little by little, to try and be politically correct, they made this little change, they made this little change. And now they’ve got a social problem that they don’t know what to do with hardly.


That's got to be one of the stupidest things I've read. If any religion is creeping into our laws, it's Christianity.
#100 Jun 08 2011 at 7:11 PM Rating: Decent
Once you go black...
#101 Jun 08 2011 at 7:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
That right there is a bit ambiguous. Sure, there shouldn't be any religious "law" in our government but a person's faith shouldn't be relevant. We've got Christians, Jews and whatnot; why not Muslims? Unless you're under the delusion that all Muslims are intent on infiltrating and breaking the West, though that already seems to be part of the GOP dogma.

Actually, making appointment based on religion is unconstitutional. So, yeah, there's that.
US Constitution, Article 6 wrote:
The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust under the United States.
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