So, how about Egypt and Tunisia?Follow

The Tunisia ouster affects my family personally, because my sister works for an organization in NY with close ties to the "former" leader. Her boss has been personally invited to "run" for positions (ie, president Ben Ali offered to give her positions in his government) over the years, but she always refused because she personally disagreed with his rule even though they were friends and she profited from her contacts within the established government. Since the ouster, the country is incredibly destabilized, her credibility is nil due to her association with the former leader, and as a result my sister is facing unemployment. Maybe she'll take my advice and apply for a State Department job now (knowing Arabic is a pretty useful skill)

Anyway, now protests are popping up in Egypt. I sorta doubt they'll get much accomplished, as Egypt tends to crack down a bunch on their citizens, but it'll be interesting to see how it turns out. However, it seems to be the US-allied countries experiencing these populist rallies. A major issue for US interests in the region, I would think? Where does everyone see this going?

I have a hard time thinking I can solidify my numerous mental snippets into any intelligent comments. Observers are skeptical that the Egyptian protests will have the same effect as in Tunisia if only for the lack of a focus. Which is "good" in that I can't think of a real great outcome from a US perspective (no, that's not all that matters but the OP specifically mentioned it).

The current Egyptian government is good for the US and not so good for democracy. The new government if one was to form would potentially be democratic but likely anti-American. Go figure, huh?

That was short but I'm being interrupted a lot here.

Aaaand, Yemen joins the mix.

In other fun news (for Varus), the world's Muslim population will double in the next 20 years.

Probably the biggest fear in the Islamic world is the word Democracy. Most Islamic country's are Totalitarian. We may be seeing a giant change in the world here. No change to Democracy has been really bloodless. I expect that it may be nasty in many places when it happens.

The top four most populous Muslim-majority nations are all some form of democracy (Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria). Then came Egypt which is listed as a Presidental Republic but has more of an authoritarian bent and then I got bored.

I knew I was doing something wrong! >_<

The pyramid scheme was bound to come to a head at some point.

/rimshot

Let's see if someone finally claims Bir Tawil. It's been Terra nullius for far too long.

Good outcomes for the US:

The MB decides this is their time and co-opts the protests, Mubarak crushes them, and loses the ability to use them as the convenient bogey man they are now, but remains in power more dependent than ever on the US.

Mubarak falls, the unrest spreads to other areas in the region and the Green Revolution in Iran decides now is their time and succeeds in overthrowing that regime.

Both very unlikely.

Bad outcomes for the US:

The MB decides this is their time and co-opts the protests, Mubarak falls, they shut down Suez, we fairly immediately slay them and tens of thousands of civilians, but still end up with $6/gallon gasoline for the short term, along with further overextending the military.

Israel decides they can't deal with the uncertainty and picks a side and does something. For the most part, any time Israel acts outside of their national borders, it's bad for the US.

Replace "Israel" in the above with "Iran"

Protesters burn AUC to the ground, providing one less outlet for douche-bag American students to "study" abroad, foisting their banal entitled asses on kids trying to get an education.

That last one if probably the worst outcome.

Dude, he just totally burned your sister!

Except for in Australia.

The British colonisation of the continent of Australia certainly went in for a lot of Aborigine exterminations, as they were unhappy about being conquered. This is our great shame. However for the (mostly white) majority The gradual change from being run by Autocratic Governers General (Proxies for the British Monarch), to limited democratic parliaments, to further/wider democratic representation of one man, one vote (instead of lone landowner, one vote), to the first ever votes for women in the world, to the unification of the various colonies into the Nation of Australia, were all accomplished without revolution or fighting.

Instead they happened gradually through political discourse, rallying speeches, town meetings, and the willingness of the people in power in the end to see that it was common sense and fairness to let the majority have what they wanted in the way of voting and representation. Admittedly art of that was in coming behind the French and American revolutions of the 1700s, and seeing which way the winds were blowing. But Australia was first ever to vote a nation into existence, and give votes to women decades ahead of most of the rest of the world.

Wow, brain really deteriorating. I shouldn't post anything serious any more.

Edited, Feb 7th 2011 6:39am by Aripyanfar

President of Egypt says he won't run for reelection come September. Odds are the protesters won't be happy until he steps down now, though.