To a far far better response:
Allegory wrote:
gbaji wrote:
That's not really misinformation about the bill so much as most people not knowing anything about the CBO. You ask them if the CBO found that the bill would increase or decrease the deficit, and they don't know what the CBO is, but they darn well know that the bill will increase the deficit, what do you think they're going to say?
You're making an assumption in stating that most people do not know about the CBO, but I'll grant that to you. So in return, allow me to speculate that most people do not know the specific costs of the bill, could not even ballpark them, and have not done any crunching themselves to attempt to figure out if it would increase the deficit.
Ok. I'll accept that assumption as well.
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Regardless of what the bill actually achieves, most people judging it for themselves would be entirely blindly guessing. They have no facts. You're assuming that people with typically no mathematical or economic background and knowing pretty much none of the data are more likely to make a correct assessment of the cost of the bill than an organization set up to do exactly that.
I disagree. You don't have to be an expert in math, or even have access to the exact numbers and facts and do any math at all to figure out that if you expand the benefits provided by the health care system, it will have to cost more. The only math skills you need are "more stuff costs more money", which pretty much everyone can figure out.
When you then realize that the government is trying to insist that it can provide that "more stuff", without raising any taxes, it also does not take any particular mathematical skills to figure out that this means we'll end out with a deficit. No amount of the CBO scoring it differently will sway people from the common sense conclusions they've already adopted. It's like a doctor insisting that you can jump off that 100 foot cliff and not suffer a scratch. What he's saying flies so firmly in the face of your own experiences that you don't believe him, no matter how much of an "expert" he is.
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The CBO can be wrong, but they're not more likely to be wrong than a random passerby on the street. If you honestly believe the contrary, that literally--without hyperbole--a random person from this poll is more suited to assessing the cost of the bill, then you are incredibly stupid. I'm going to assume you were using hyperbole.
You're misstating the issue though. It's not about a random bystander being better suited to assessing the cost of the bill, but that a random bystander will be better suited to assessing whether the bill will cost more than the government is claiming. That requires no special skill. It requires only that one have lived long enough to see a pretty clear pattern of pretty much every program the government ever creates costing more than it says it will when it passes the law creating the program in the first place. I don't have to know *why* it will, and those who put their faith in CBO scorings can argue against it, but if we were to place odds on it in Vegas, which side would the house favor?
To most people, the CBO is just some government organization that is wrong about how much things will cost most of the time. They don't need to be more capable of deriving an exact number to be able to consistently guess that the number the CBO gives them is likely to be wrong.
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gbaji wrote:
One might argue that this means that 81% of the public is better at figuring out whether something is going to cost them more money than the CBO is. In fact, I will argue this (and have!).
That's a very, very bad argument.
Historically, it's a very very good argument. The CBOs track record, especially with large social spending programs, is pretty nearly 100% wrong in the "it cost a hell of a lot more than they said it would" direction. I know why this is, and anyone who understands how the CBO scores bills knows why this is, but even those who don't know are still likely to see the pattern.
The CBO is a "garbage in - garbage out" operation. They don't estimate the economic effects of things over time. They simply do math on the numbers given to them. How many years of estimate? How much assumed revenue each year during that time period? How much yearly costs each year over that time period? It's a bit more involved than that, but not a whole lot. And anyone who can do the same math the guys at the CBO do can reverse the math and derive the assumptions they need to provide in order to get the score they want. It's not rocket science even.
And in this particular case, even if we toss out the incredibly unlikely economic growth assumptions used, there are two absolutely huge and glaring assumptions which should trigger anyone's BS-o-meter:
1. They assessed for a 10 year period of time, assuming revenue for the whole 10 years, but with costs only phasing in after 4 years. Thus, to get a bill that is just barely balanced, they have to collect 66% more years of revenue than they are paying in costs. I don't need to do more than simple math to realize that while the first 10 years may be balanced, the next 10 wont be. But since the CBO only scored for 10 years, it comes back as balanced. GIGO!
2. They assume that insurance purchase mandates will pass constitutional muster. Most of us started out knowing this likely wouldn't fly, and it's increasingly looking like the courts are going to agree with us. Without the revenue from 10s of millions of healthy people who don't cost much to insure, the bill cannot cover its costs and will not be balanced even for the first 10 years, much much less the next 10.
The point being that the knee-jerk ignorant persons reaction is right. Again. And the educated persons reliance on official organizations to tell them what will happen is wrong. Again. Shocking!
Edited, Dec 16th 2010 3:06pm by gbaji