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#52 Oct 07 2010 at 7:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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China is doing something similar in order to keep pace (not as drastic though). Here's the pickle they are in though. They know that in order to keep expanding their economy, they'll have to adopt more capitalism internally. But to do this requires that they allow the creation of a true middle class in China, which means that they'll have to drop the portion left to the state significantly over the same time period. Thus, during this process, they wont "grow" relative to the US in terms of military/influence. They'll lose ground because their current level is maintained by systems they'll have to abandon if they move forward with the process.




Sorry for the derail but in another thread, I thought you said the middle class was useless, and it was the rich who expanded the economy. So what is the point of the rich (government) giving power (money) to people if in the most capitalist of markets (the USA) cutting taxes on the middle class and keeping(and/or raising) taxes on the richest isn't going to work and will cause the economy to shrink.

Why would the strongest economy in the world right now (read today Oct.7/2010 not *************** 2006). make a middle class, if the middle class doesn't expand an economy.

Contradictory much, oh it must be because they are communist and the people don't have the same illusion of freedoms we do in the "democratic" societies in which we live.
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#53 Oct 07 2010 at 8:12 PM Rating: Decent
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Skipping over the bulk of this thread...

Why the fuck is Taiwan so important, anyways? It's like, The USA versus Long Island. Who cares?
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#54 Oct 07 2010 at 8:33 PM Rating: Good
Debalic wrote:
Why the fuck is Taiwan so important, anyways? It's like, The USA versus Long Island. Who cares?
aside from being ~10x that size, having a long history of rebellion/oppression from multiple sources, and general nationalism concerns on both sides:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan

#55 Oct 07 2010 at 9:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
Skipping over the bulk of this thread...

Why the fuck is Taiwan so important, anyways? It's like, The USA versus Long Island. Who cares?


The same reason the health of a canary is important in coal mining.
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#56 Oct 07 2010 at 11:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Yodabunny wrote:
They're in a position to invade Taiwan.

No argument. That's why I said earlier "it certainly has enough of a green water navy to ruin Taiwan's day."

If and when China decides to invade Taiwan in force, Taiwan is probably screwed. I doubt many people in the US are willing to get nuked on Taiwan's behalf.


China's navy is large, but its not really effective yet. Their submarine fleet is just now starting to catch up to the soveit era russian designs, and they are still years behind us in underwater submarine stealth. If you can hear an enemy submarine, you can kill it. Right now we can easily detect all of China's subs, though how much of that is deliberate on their part to keep us off guard is unknown. They have reportedly just launched or are in process of launching a new sub with advanced noise reduction features, but no one has seen it yet. Their existing submarines do tend to suffer more than their fair share of "Oh ****, SURFACE NOW!!!!" accidents though.

They are also working on carriers. Mostly re-engineering old unsuccessful soviet era designs that they have bought, but again there are rumors they are in mid design stages of a carrier similar to the Nimitz class in size, scope and capabilities. Even with a working design that doesn't become an issue for us until probably around 2017.

They also have apperently developed a working hypersonic anti ship missile. there is footage of what appears to be a successful test of a weapon the soviets were trying to perfect at the fall, but never got working. Nuclear payload, it might be fast enough to hit a carrier group. But any launch of one of those would trigger a nuclear war regardless.

With our carrier fleet, the Aegis cruisers, assuming the conflict didn't go nuclear we would probably decimate the chinese fleet in short order. Same with their present air force. They are working on a 4.5th generation fighter, but they don't have it in production yet. So mostly Mig 29 variants to contend with there.

The problem we have is that the US Navy and Air force have a huge technological advantage currently, but we lack numbers, or manufacturing capacity to turn out additional ships quickly. Part of that is manpower, recruitment levels are low still, but alot of that is budget and focus on increased individual ship capability at the expense of numbers. 1 ship may be able to outfight 20 of the enemy ships, but if they sink your one ship, you now have a 20 ship hole...

The Ford class carriers need to be built, and they need to be built sooner rather than later to free up manpower and maintenance resources from the oldest of the Nimitz and Enterprise class carriers. Those carriers should be decommissioned and offered for sale to England and Australia. The CG(x) program needs to be funded and at least 10 ships constructed to fill the air coverage gap in the carrier battle groups. The DD(x) program needs to be funded for more than 2 ships. The Seawolf class attack submarine program should have been extended by another 3 ships instead of the virginia class. And damnit we need a battleship just for the surface bombardment! $5k shell is alot cheaper than $1m crusie missile for the same effect. New ship, Railgun armed, nuclear powered, able to keep up with the carrier fleet, load it up with a huge number of anti aircraft missile batteries and park it in the middle of the carrier group most of the time.

There have been some good moves though. The littoral combat ship program and the WASP class landing carriers with the V-22 Osprey marine assault force were definitly needed. And retrofitting the older Ohio class submarines phased out by SALT treaty provisions to underwater cruise missile carriers was brilliant.

We just really need more of everything to make a sea invasion a sure thing, especially if any other countries threw in with china.

Now in an invasion scenario, China doesn't have sufficeint transportation capability to land the bulk of their military on our shores, and we don't have enough to try invading them on their own turf. In either scenario, things would litterally go nuclear almost immidiatly.

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#57 Oct 07 2010 at 11:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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Pumpkin Lörd Kaolian wrote:
They have reportedly just launched or are in process of launching a new sub with advanced noise reduction features, but no one has seen it yet.

So wait. Are we supposed to be worried then or not?
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#58 Oct 08 2010 at 12:24 AM Rating: Good
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They also have apperently developed a working hypersonic anti ship missile. there is footage of what appears to be a successful test of a weapon the soviets were trying to perfect at the fall, but never got working. Nuclear payload, it might be fast enough to hit a carrier group. But any launch of one of those would trigger a nuclear war regardless.


According to my sources they can easily be kitted out for conventional payloads.

Also, orbital defense systems or smart drone sub-fleets would be a much better use of our funds than the beefing up our naval presence in terms of both flexible battlefield superiority and viability in multiple conflict types.
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#59 Oct 08 2010 at 12:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
Pumpkin Lörd Kaolian wrote:
They have reportedly just launched or are in process of launching a new sub with advanced noise reduction features, but no one has seen it yet.

So wait. Are we supposed to be worried then or not?


Dunno yet. Intel probably does, and they are pushing through plans to replace the Ohio class SSBN's with... something here in a few years, but there doesn't really seem to be any panic at this point. Most of the chinese boats to date we have seen aren't as big around as our typical missile sub, which means they are much less likely to have any sort of long range ICBM launch capability. I don't care how good your rocket scientists are, with present technology there is only so short you can make an effective ICBM, and I like to think we have pretty good rocket scientists. What would worry me is china developing an effective silent attack submarine. There is a huuuge amount of institutional knowledge that you need to know before you can really begin making effective submarines, and in some of the pictures you can see of recent chinese designs, they still seem to be making mistakes in propulsion designs. Which suprises me given how much visibility US and or older Soviet propellor designs have been in pictures recently, and propellor design is the holy grail of sub noise reduction, well That and the rubber coatings. They seem to have the acoustic coating process down, which they probably got from the Russians, but they don't seem to have the layout down. their subs seem stubby and on the small side, which I suspect means they aren't as certain of their propulsion systems as they would like to be. They should have fairly decent reactor designs simply extrapolating from soviet designs they almost have to have aquired by now.

Most of their existing fleet is destroyers and smaller ships.


The Chinese fleet Active or presently under construction (simplified this chart for formatting, so some of the numbers are a bit off)

Submarines
Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines 7
Nuclear Attack Submarines 12
Conventional Ballistic Missile Submarines 1
Conventional Attack Submarines 47
Total Submarines 67

Principal Surface Combatants
Aircraft Carriers 3 (unconfirmed)
Destroyers 26
Frigates 52
Total Principal Surface Combatants 81

Coastal Warfare Vessels (small boats)
Missile Boats 252
Torpedo Boats 170
Gun Boats 260
Submarine Chasers 95

Total Coastal Warfare Vessels ~800
Amphibious Warfare Vessels
Landing Platforms 2
Landing Ships 83
Landing Craft 480
Total Amphibious Warfare Vessels 564

Mine Warfare Vessels
Mine Warfare Ships 69
Mine Warfare Drones 30
Total Mine Warfare Vessels 99

Give or take...

By comparison, the US fleet:

Submarines
Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines 14 + 4 Cruise missile launching subs.
Nuclear Attack Submarines 69
Total Submarines 87

Principal Surface Combatants
Aircraft Carriers 14
Cruisers 22
Destroyers: 60ish
Frigates 30
Total Principal Surface Combatants 126

Coastal Warfare Vessels (small boats)
No clue, but alot of them
Total Coastal Warfare Vessels ???

Amphibious Warfare Vessels
Landing Platforms 19 (assault carriers and the like)
Landing Ships about 800 of them.
Landing Craft who knows?
Total Amphibious Warfare Vessels 819+

The US fleet is split between two Oceans usually, but in an engagement where a major Sea battle would occur, the US should have a major edge in all important aspects. Frigates can't fight carrier groups and live. Plus class for class most of the chinese ships are much smaller than ours on a tonnage basis
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#60 Oct 08 2010 at 6:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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Pumpkin Lörd Kaolian wrote:
Dunno yet. Intel probably does, and they are pushing through plans to replace the Ohio class SSBN's with...

In the words of Foghorn Leghorn, "Ah, now, that there was what they call a joke now, son".
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#61 Oct 08 2010 at 6:55 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Modern use of air superiority has largely made that model obsolete though.

Hehehe.


Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Yes. Whomever wins air superiority wins that conflict.

I'm amused at your insistence that the US would have sufficient air superiority in that event is all.


Then make that point instead of suggesting that air superiority doesn't actually nullify numerical superiority on the ground. Do you have to go to a special school to learn how to obfuscate your point?
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#62 Oct 08 2010 at 7:38 PM Rating: Good
One other thing to keep in mind is that if China starts throwing its weight around, India's probably going to find it to be in their best interests to push back. (Depending on how China is throwing its weight around, obviously. India's going to care about fuck-all about it if they go after Taiwan.)
#63 Oct 08 2010 at 7:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Do you have to go to a special school to learn how to obfuscate your point?

Maybe. I suppose I did go to school and you're unable to follow along so I'm willing to admit that my education may make it difficult for you to keep up.

See? We've found common ground!
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#64 Oct 09 2010 at 12:09 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Yes. Whomever wins air superiority wins that conflict.

I'm amused at your insistence that the US would have sufficient air superiority in that event is all.

This just reminded me of the earlier mentioned Desert Storm. While Iraq did have the 3rd largest army, the key in air superiority involved totally disabling Iraq's air force. China easily would have bases in range, with the distance at 130km.
#65 Oct 09 2010 at 12:28 AM Rating: Good
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manicshock wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Yes. Whomever wins air superiority wins that conflict.

I'm amused at your insistence that the US would have sufficient air superiority in that event is all.

This just reminded me of the earlier mentioned Desert Storm. While Iraq did have the 3rd largest army, the key in air superiority involved totally disabling Iraq's air force. China easily would have bases in range, with the distance at 130km.
Speaking of Iraq and war, the US actually tried to use dolphins as underwater mine detectors. They spent quite a while training them, and when they released them into the ocean, they swam off.
#66 Oct 09 2010 at 1:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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LeWoVoc wrote:
Speaking of Iraq and war, the US actually tried to use dolphins as underwater mine detectors. They spent quite a while training them, and when they released them into the ocean, they swam off.


No, they really didn't. For examples, see here:
http://msgboard.snopes.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=48;t=000476;p=1
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9503310/
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#67 Oct 09 2010 at 2:09 AM Rating: Good
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Pumpkin Lörd Kaolian wrote:
LeWoVoc wrote:
Speaking of Iraq and war, the US actually tried to use dolphins as underwater mine detectors. They spent quite a while training them, and when they released them into the ocean, they swam off.


No, they really didn't. For examples, see here:
http://msgboard.snopes.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=48;t=000476;p=1
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9503310/
I stand corrected. I'm a bit embarrassed that I didn't bother to research that one at all. I'm fairly certain, though, that the Russians used dog-bombs to try and destroy tanks (which failed when the dogs went after Russian tanks), and Americans used bats during WWII. (Or tried to, rather)
#68 Oct 09 2010 at 5:20 AM Rating: Decent
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LeWoVoc wrote:
Pumpkin Lörd Kaolian wrote:
LeWoVoc wrote:
Speaking of Iraq and war, the US actually tried to use dolphins as underwater mine detectors. They spent quite a while training them, and when they released them into the ocean, they swam off.


No, they really didn't. For examples, see here:
http://msgboard.snopes.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=48;t=000476;p=1
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9503310/
I stand corrected. I'm a bit embarrassed that I didn't bother to research that one at all. I'm fairly certain, though, that the Russians used dog-bombs to try and destroy tanks (which failed when the dogs went after Russian tanks), and Americans used bats during WWII. (Or tried to, rather)

And the Japanese attached bombs to balloons and sent them over the Pacific by the thousands. So?
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#69 Oct 09 2010 at 5:33 AM Rating: Good
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Were they trying to kill kids?
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#70 Oct 09 2010 at 5:37 AM Rating: Good
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Uglysasquatch wrote:
Were they trying to kill kids?
Nope, they just thought a balloon would hit something important rather than just another field.
#71 Oct 09 2010 at 8:03 AM Rating: Good
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LeWoVoc wrote:
Uglysasquatch wrote:
Were they trying to kill kids?
Nope, they just thought a balloon would hit something important rather than just another field.
Or balloon boy.
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#72 Oct 09 2010 at 8:06 AM Rating: Decent
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haha that was awesome times, I still remember wolfs face going red when it came out as a hoax, his overly melodramatic reporting style looked so deliciously foolish that day!.
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#73 Oct 11 2010 at 3:06 PM Rating: Decent
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manicshock wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Yes. Whomever wins air superiority wins that conflict.

I'm amused at your insistence that the US would have sufficient air superiority in that event is all.

This just reminded me of the earlier mentioned Desert Storm. While Iraq did have the 3rd largest army, the key in air superiority involved totally disabling Iraq's air force.


You don't say? Do you suppose that was a unique method to gain air superiority used only against Iraq?



Quote:
China easily would have bases in range, with the distance at 130km.


Yes. And they fly older less capable planes, and it's questionable how well trained their pilots are. I don't think anyone's seriously questioning *if* the US could gain air superiority or at least situational air control over the region in question, but rather how long it would take to do so.
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#74 Oct 11 2010 at 5:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
manicshock wrote:
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Yes. Whomever wins air superiority wins that conflict.

I'm amused at your insistence that the US would have sufficient air superiority in that event is all.

This just reminded me of the earlier mentioned Desert Storm. While Iraq did have the 3rd largest army, the key in air superiority involved totally disabling Iraq's air force.


You don't say? Do you suppose that was a unique method to gain air superiority used only against Iraq?

Quote:
China easily would have bases in range, with the distance at 130km.


Yes. And they fly older less capable planes, and it's questionable how well trained their pilots are. I don't think anyone's seriously questioning *if* the US could gain air superiority or at least situational air control over the region in question, but rather how long it would take to do so.

The thing is, China is a lot larger than Iraq. Orders of magnitude so. They also have much better AA missile tech. Meaning that an aerial lockdown is significantly more expensive to pull off, and there are other arguably more effective strategies to pursue.
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#75 Oct 11 2010 at 6:22 PM Rating: Decent
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Timelordwho wrote:
The thing is, China is a lot larger than Iraq. Orders of magnitude so. They also have much better AA missile tech. Meaning that an aerial lockdown is significantly more expensive to pull off, and there are other arguably more effective strategies to pursue.


Yes. And we also don't have to gain full air superiority over the entire coast of China either. We only need to gain it over the area of Taiwan and make any sea or air routes into that country too hazardous to traverse. Assuming any reasonable amount of warning (and the massing of amphibious assault equipment needed to do this would be impossible to miss), the US could likely achieve sufficient air power to block landing of troops within a couple hours. It might take us weeks to knock out sufficient air defenses over nearly portions of China to go further than that, but then we don't have to in this scenario.


I already made this point. We don't have to invade China. We only have to stop them from invading and/or holding Taiwan. That's a far far easier thing to do, and they know this. China would not risk such a thing unless they knew they could be absolutely successful. That means being able to take Taiwan and ensuring that no one can take it back. They'd have to be able to capture Taiwan and turn it into a hostile airspace (capturing or installing sufficient AA systems) so as to deny that to the US. And they'd have very very little time to do that. If they can't put air defenses in place to defend Taiwan from the US, they'll lose the momentum. They'll be unable to fortify or supply what forces they have, and they will lose.



Honestly, it's a silly line of reasoning. I still maintain that China gets far far more out of Taiwan being independent than the other way around. Their protestations over Taiwan are largely face-saving. They know that the economic and technological value of Taiwan derives largely from its current state. If they were to take it by force, it would turn into just an island off their coast. All the business with Taiwan would cease. And that's largely economic posturing. I don't think you understand how many companies do business with Taiwan that they cannot legally do with China. Taiwan's value is because of that condition. Take it away and its not worth as much as it appears right now.
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#76 Oct 11 2010 at 6:48 PM Rating: Default
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I can't believe you seriously think anyone gives a **** about Taiwan, hell Taiwan doesn't care about Taiwan, it is already claimed by China. No one is going to go to war with China over **** **** Taiwan, hell they could take Korea and Nam too and I seriously doubt the West would bat an eye, other than to say finally we can move our **** back home.

No one gives a **** about 2nd and 3rd world countries other than to show a little grit in the chess game of world politics. Cold War is over Communism won deal with it, for some reason its only the back assward red necks of the US fuggin eh! that seem to think the social programs that were commonplace in Communism won't work in Democracy.

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