Ok, even before the Global Financial Crisis the USA had a huge trade deficit with China (and Japan?). Now that the US economy is in the tank and heavily indebted, obviously you are trying on many fronts to dig yourself out. Obviously China has long held a trade advantage over the rest of the world by artificially keeping its currency low. Whatever the morals of that, I have to say that this has probably helped take China from a third world nation to the developed nation it is teetering right on the brink of becoming today.
The US government is obviously feeling desperate if it is taking such an anti-free market step as to legalise the option of imposing tariffs on Chinese and Japanese goods and services.
Between it's GDP and more importantly its population China has just reached parity with the USA economically. Japan has has economic problems since the 1980s, after being an economic powerhouse in the decades previous to that.
Japan and China loathe each other with all their might, so much bad blood between them historically. China is taking tentative steps out of a firm anti-capitalist, anti-American ideology. Japan and the USA have WW2 between them, but also the successful McCarthy program that rebuilt and enriched Japan.
China is hell bent on regaining the democratic nation island of Taiwan, and the USA has committed itself to defend Taiwan from China. If the US goes ahead with trade tariffs, and an economic war erupts between the three nations... is this something the world can really afford right now? Could it escalate further into violence? I think China feels its ability to provide for its people is still too fragile to accept outsiders interfering with its export successes and continued large economic growth. Far too much of its population are still rural or urban peasants.
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Trade war with China?Follow
Imposing tariffs on china will not fix anything, protectionism was abandoned for a reason, and China will gladly just move on to the next country and leave the US to wallow in its self created sink hole. If it does escalate into a military ordeal (doubtful) what the Hell can the US do against china? Bend over?. Would be stupid to war with china, 200 million troops, with another 1.4 billion to pull from. Then again, nothing like a GOOD war to revive economies (afghanistan and iraq do not equate to good wars. Last good war that made good money was WW2)
Edited, Oct 7th 2010 8:41am by rdmcandie
Edited, Oct 7th 2010 8:41am by rdmcandie
HEY GOOGLE. **** OFF YOU. **** YOUR ******** SEARCH ENGINE IN ITS ******* ****** BINARY ***. ALL DAY LONG.
Wonder Gem rdmcandie wrote:
If it does escalate into a military ordeal (doubtful) what the Hell can the US do against china? Bend over?. Would be stupid to war with china, 200 million troops, with another 1.4 billion to pull from.
Excluding the possibility of nuclear war, I think the U.S. has enough military assets (read: not people) to prevent most of those 200 million troops from ever reaching U.S. mainland. The issue would be U.S. interests abroad, if anything. Also, any war between China and the U.S. would almost certainly escalate into WW3. And hey, the last WW dug us out of the depression.
Imposing tariffs on Chinese imports wouldn't help our economy, because manufacturers would just move the production to another low-wage country. As far as the currency control issue, last I'd heard China was beginning to allow the Yuan to float a bit more, due in no small part to Geithner throwing a hissy fit about it.
The fact of the matter is that those jobs aren't coming back to the US regardless of what silly trade policies we put into place.
The fact of the matter is that those jobs aren't coming back to the US regardless of what silly trade policies we put into place.
Jophiel wrote:
I managed to be both retarded and entertaining.
BrownDuck wrote:
Excluding the possibility of nuclear war, I think the U.S. has enough military assets (read: not people) to prevent most of those 200 million troops from ever reaching U.S. mainland. The issue would be U.S. interests abroad, if anything.
Yup. China lacks a blue water navy to project its power to the US but it certainly has enough of a green water navy to ruin Taiwan's day.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Jophiel wrote:
China lacks a blue water navy to project its power to the US
What they do have is a MASSIVE manufacturing base and they're pretty much impenetrable defensively. They're also not restricted by human rights issues, they could drop off 100k troops, leaving them to fend for themselves while the ships return for the next batch with no repercussions.
The US couldn't hope to replace equipment/ships at anything close to the rate China could and people are effectively disposable for them. A war between China and the US would be bloody indeed.
It's like Zerg vs Protos.
What has kept China from invading Taiwan thus far?
Alma wrote:
I lost my post
Elinda wrote:
What has kept China from invading Taiwan thus far?
All of China's equipment is Made in Taiwan.
Shaowstrike (Retired - FFXI)
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Cost, fear of reprisal. No one wants another world war, with the US backing Taiwan that's what it would become.
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Scholar
1,150 posts
Shaowstrike wrote:
Elinda wrote:
What has kept China from invading Taiwan thus far?
All of China's equipment is Made in Taiwan.
Ba-dum, CHING!
Yodabunny wrote:
Cost, fear of reprisal. No one wants another world war, with the US backing Taiwan that's what it would become.
Is it because the US is less intimidating because of our relatively weak economy, or is there something else?
...or has nothing changed except someone spekUlating in a forum post?
Alma wrote:
I lost my post
Where some countries have cornered specific markets China has managed to corner the entire manufacturing industry. Their economy is booming like a base drum while the rest of the world is either stagnant or in decline, with the exception of the Aussies who are also booming due to China's proximity and Australia's crazy amount of natural resources.
Ultimately China and Australia are the cause of just about every trade deficit in the world, EVERYONE pays China on a regular basis.
As if that wasn't enough, China has artificially kept their currency low for decades. They have now relaxed some of those restrictions turning them into an economical juggernaut, effectively overnight. So now we have a communist country that has done a very good job of brainwashing their population into becoming slaves of the "greater good" with a bank account bigger than the entire developed world and a ridiculously massive military that has the rest of the world by the balls.
Ultimately China and Australia are the cause of just about every trade deficit in the world, EVERYONE pays China on a regular basis.
As if that wasn't enough, China has artificially kept their currency low for decades. They have now relaxed some of those restrictions turning them into an economical juggernaut, effectively overnight. So now we have a communist country that has done a very good job of brainwashing their population into becoming slaves of the "greater good" with a bank account bigger than the entire developed world and a ridiculously massive military that has the rest of the world by the balls.
US Military Report, Aug 2010 wrote:
Cross-Strait economic and cultural ties continued to make important progress in 2009. Despite these positive trends, China’s military build-up opposite the island continued unabated. The [People's Liberation Army] is developing the capability to deter Taiwan independence or influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay or deny any possible U.S. support for the island in case of conflict. The balance of cross-Strait military forces
continues to shift in the mainland’s favor.
continues to shift in the mainland’s favor.
I guess maybe it's simply that China is getting it's **** together both militarily and economically and therefore, they may feel it's time to reclaim what, they feel, is rightfully theirs (Taiwan).
I had remembered seeing something somewhere not too long ago that I thought had made a similar comment, maybe...in fact maybe it was when this report was released. I just couldn't couldn't recall enough and was having a hard time finding anything. As it was I just now found this reference to the report through some obscure blog. Man, I think my early days of abusing drugs is starting to catch up to me.
Alma wrote:
I lost my post
Yodabunny wrote:
What they do have is a MASSIVE manufacturing base and they're pretty much impenetrable defensively. They're also not restricted by human rights issues, they could drop off 100k troops, leaving them to fend for themselves while the ships return for the next batch with no repercussions.
It takes less time to make a missile than it does another ship. Not that we'd be invading China either but China isn't in any position to invade any place they can't walk to.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Jophiel wrote:
It takes less time to make a missile than it does another ship. Not that we'd be invading China either but China isn't in any position to invade any place they can't walk to.
They're in a position to invade Taiwan. The US could no more invade China than China could invade the US. Either invasion force would be decimated in short order. However, China has much better access, geographically, to Taiwan than the US does. It would be a very bloody war.
China has the tools to increase it's capabilities at a much faster rate than the US can. Since China's only real military fault is long distance transportation of its military I would hazard a guess that the US couldn't break Chinese defences simply due to the sheer mass of troops China has.
In initial engagements I would agree with you no one is going anywhere fast. The US has a long way to travel but has better/more assets and transports, China has more troops, fewer transports, but are much closer to the initial battle area (Taiwan). In a protracted war the US wouldn't stand a chance unless alliances were made because China would ramp up its industrial machine and churn out more long range capability. You'd almost have to hit their neighbors and starve them out. That brings us to another world war.
I am optimistic it will work out. I believe the Chinese government has little to gain in Taiwan and could loose everything if the people rise up. I also think the people in government are comfortable and like the way things are now and won't risk that.
What about trade? Well, as China and India continue to industrialize (along with Brazil and others: the developing world has been growing through this current "global" economic slowdown), they will consume more stuff. This will cause prices of stuff (oil, metals, everything) to rise. Transportation will be particularly hard hit*. Combined with rising wages in China/India**, it will be too expensive to make and ship as much from there to here.
And in, say, 50 to 100 years trade from China to the US and back will look more like trade is now between, say, the US and Europe.
This will be an enormous hit to first world economies: standards of living, measured by conventional methods, will decline sharply. However, it will be an enormous positive for discovering things: there will be (roughly) 3x as many researchers trying to cure cancer and 3x as large a market for new drugs (or disney movies...or software).
Just look at the reverse: what if the US were to de-industrialize? Would not Europe be better off? Of course not! Although it was probably frightening when the US grew, the US has become a close ally of Europe in many ways. And although it is hard to see now, I am certain all new industrialized nations will join this group soon.
*Why? Look at prices before the current downturn: yes everything was more expensive, but fuel was particularly hard hit.
** Ah you ask why not move our production to another low wage nation? Well, where do you think China will be getting things made? Some things will, but when China and India industrialize, it will represent 40% of world population moving into a category occupied by roughly 20% now. That is a huge shift. Roughly speaking, there will not be anyone left to do what China is doing now since there will be fewer in the developing world then in the developed, and until now it has been 4:1.
What about trade? Well, as China and India continue to industrialize (along with Brazil and others: the developing world has been growing through this current "global" economic slowdown), they will consume more stuff. This will cause prices of stuff (oil, metals, everything) to rise. Transportation will be particularly hard hit*. Combined with rising wages in China/India**, it will be too expensive to make and ship as much from there to here.
And in, say, 50 to 100 years trade from China to the US and back will look more like trade is now between, say, the US and Europe.
This will be an enormous hit to first world economies: standards of living, measured by conventional methods, will decline sharply. However, it will be an enormous positive for discovering things: there will be (roughly) 3x as many researchers trying to cure cancer and 3x as large a market for new drugs (or disney movies...or software).
Just look at the reverse: what if the US were to de-industrialize? Would not Europe be better off? Of course not! Although it was probably frightening when the US grew, the US has become a close ally of Europe in many ways. And although it is hard to see now, I am certain all new industrialized nations will join this group soon.
*Why? Look at prices before the current downturn: yes everything was more expensive, but fuel was particularly hard hit.
** Ah you ask why not move our production to another low wage nation? Well, where do you think China will be getting things made? Some things will, but when China and India industrialize, it will represent 40% of world population moving into a category occupied by roughly 20% now. That is a huge shift. Roughly speaking, there will not be anyone left to do what China is doing now since there will be fewer in the developing world then in the developed, and until now it has been 4:1.
Quote:
I guess maybe it's simply that China is getting it's sh*t together both militarily and economically and therefore, they may feel it's time to reclaim what, they feel, is rightfully theirs (Taiwan).
Its a simliar play of strength that saw russia head into Georgia a few summers back and the arab nations funding that lebanese/israli conflict a few years back. At the moment the US looks really weak, they do not have the troop numbers to fight in a third major conflict, they do not have the economic stability to pressure other countries, and worldwide confidence in US backed events is dwindling. The powers of the world are simply flexing their muscles and newer countries are filling in some of the void left by the US. (Such as Germany, and Canada).
This isn't a new trend it has steadily been increasing ever since regenomics drove the country to **** 2 decades ago. As for a chinese - american war I highly doubt china gives a damn about crossing the ocean to take out the USA. The war will likely be fought in Asia as China expands out ward. Likely it will be fought in africa as well, as China is currently investing buttloads of money into countries with high resource value.
Presently China is the big *****, they are statistically the strongest economically, strongest militarily, it is inevitable that eventually China will make a move and outside nuclear war or a world vs china event there isn't much anyone can do to stop them, and at this point in time Id imagine big countries like Russia will side with China and split whats in Asia.
But I seriously doubt it would ever escalate to that point.
HEY GOOGLE. **** OFF YOU. **** YOUR ******** SEARCH ENGINE IN ITS ******* ****** BINARY ***. ALL DAY LONG.
Yodabunny wrote:
China has the tools to increase it's capabilities at a much faster rate than the US can.
We've got @#%^ing laser weapons now. Pew pew.
Edited, Oct 7th 2010 1:20pm by BrownDuck
Wonder Gem rdmcandie wrote:
But I seriously doubt it would ever escalate to that point.
It will, it just won't be anytime soon and it'll be born out of smaller justified conflicts. There are a lot of people in China, they need land and resources, they'll find a way to expand and since there's no free land left in the world that means a war.
BrownDuck wrote:
We've got @#%^ing laser weapons now. Pew pew.
The optics are made in China.
Yodabunny wrote:
BrownDuck wrote:
We've got @#%^ing laser weapons now. Pew pew.
The optics are made in China.
So are the batteries.
Shaowstrike (Retired - FFXI)
91PUP/BLM 86SMN/BST 76DRK
Cooking/Fishing 100
"We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary."
— James D. Nicoll
91PUP/BLM 86SMN/BST 76DRK
Cooking/Fishing 100
"We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary."
— James D. Nicoll
Yodabunny wrote:
They're in a position to invade Taiwan.
No argument. That's why I said earlier "it certainly has enough of a green water navy to ruin Taiwan's day."
If and when China decides to invade Taiwan in force, Taiwan is probably screwed. I doubt many people in the US are willing to get nuked on Taiwan's behalf.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Jophiel wrote:
If and when China decides to invade Taiwan in force, Taiwan is probably screwed. I doubt many people in the US are willing to get nuked on Taiwan's behalf.
Agreed. The US will probably make a show of condemning the action, but there's really nothing in it for the US so that'll be about as far as it goes.
Quote:
Agreed. The US will probably make a show of condemning the action, but there's really nothing in it for the US can do so that'll be about as far as it goes.
ftfy
HEY GOOGLE. **** OFF YOU. **** YOUR ******** SEARCH ENGINE IN ITS ******* ****** BINARY ***. ALL DAY LONG.
I seriously doubt anyone, including China, wants WW3. I think there's a teeny tiny minuscule chance that WW3 might happen by accident, wars occasionally have started by accident in the past.
What I think there is more chance of is a Cold War between China and the US starting over an escalating trade war happening if tariffs are imposed at this time. China is feeling both strong, and weak. It's preparing for hard times. As a nation it has hit economically parity with the US, but on average each Chinese citizen has less than an American because there is more of them.
China doesn't work on 5 year election cycles, it has 25-year and 50-year plans. China is preparing for the majority of its people to move from the peasantry into the middle class. It is preparing for a time it is unable to feed middle-class families from its own farms in the future, by buying up vast tracts of fertile farm-land in Australia and Africa. China simply doesn't have the geographical room for every family to own a car unless it starts stacking roads 3 and 5 decks high. China has problems of its own, and it doesn't want anyone making life more difficult for it, and it is aware it now has the strength to push back economically if it gets pushed.
The US was the world economic powerhouse, everyone wanted American dollars, and relied on American investment. Now nations around the world, especially, but not restricted to, wider Asia, are conscious that they currently get more investment from China than the US. When they want to spread their cash risk, they buy as many Euros and Chinese Renmimbi (RMB) as they do US dollars. If the US starts playing economic and financial games with China, things could get ugly for the US quickly. China doesn't need the US consumer any more.
What I think there is more chance of is a Cold War between China and the US starting over an escalating trade war happening if tariffs are imposed at this time. China is feeling both strong, and weak. It's preparing for hard times. As a nation it has hit economically parity with the US, but on average each Chinese citizen has less than an American because there is more of them.
China doesn't work on 5 year election cycles, it has 25-year and 50-year plans. China is preparing for the majority of its people to move from the peasantry into the middle class. It is preparing for a time it is unable to feed middle-class families from its own farms in the future, by buying up vast tracts of fertile farm-land in Australia and Africa. China simply doesn't have the geographical room for every family to own a car unless it starts stacking roads 3 and 5 decks high. China has problems of its own, and it doesn't want anyone making life more difficult for it, and it is aware it now has the strength to push back economically if it gets pushed.
The US was the world economic powerhouse, everyone wanted American dollars, and relied on American investment. Now nations around the world, especially, but not restricted to, wider Asia, are conscious that they currently get more investment from China than the US. When they want to spread their cash risk, they buy as many Euros and Chinese Renmimbi (RMB) as they do US dollars. If the US starts playing economic and financial games with China, things could get ugly for the US quickly. China doesn't need the US consumer any more.
Aripyanfar wrote:
China doesn't need the US consumer any more.
Hahahahaha.
False.
Jophiel wrote:
I managed to be both retarded and entertaining.
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