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Americans wrong about income distributionFollow

#1 Sep 28 2010 at 4:25 PM Rating: Good
No surprise there.

They also systematically underestimate the wealth the rich have.

Further, they all think about alike. Even when asked for the ideal distributions of wealth, they are very, very similar.

Link:

http://www.good.is/post/americans-are-horribly-misinformed-about-who-has-money/

Ergo: redistribution of wealth from taxes? Not only is that what we all *want*, it would mostly likely only lead to the world we already *think* we live in.

#2 Sep 28 2010 at 4:34 PM Rating: Good
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I couldn't gauge how the chart described "wealth." What did "wealth" include? Possessions? Income? government subsidies? It's great food for thought, but before I react to outrage ****, I like to make sure it's the good stuff, ya'know?
#3 Sep 28 2010 at 4:38 PM Rating: Decent
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LockeColeMA wrote:
What did "wealth" include? Possessions? Income? government subsidies?

The result is fairly similar for any of the three.
#4 Sep 28 2010 at 4:42 PM Rating: Good
LockeColeMA wrote:
What did "wealth" include? Possessions? Income? government subsidies?


Hookers and blow, actually.

#5 Sep 28 2010 at 4:47 PM Rating: Good
LockeColeMA wrote:
I couldn't gauge how the chart described "wealth." What did "wealth" include? Possessions? Income? government subsidies? It's great food for thought, but before I react to outrage ****, I like to make sure it's the good stuff, ya'know?


Income is what you make in a year. I'm sure the graph is similar for income. Wealth includes the value of anything you own, such as cash, property, stocks, etc.
#6 Sep 28 2010 at 4:54 PM Rating: Default
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In addition to the whole "how are they calculating wealth?" question, I found this interesting:

Quote:
What’s interesting here is the extent to which the public vastly overestimates the prosperity of lower-income Americans. The public thinks the 4th quintile has more money than the median quintile actually has. And the public thinks the 5th quintile has vastly more wealth than it really has.

You can easily see how this could have a giant distorting effect on our politics. Poor Americans are simply much, much, much needier than people realize and this is naturally going to lead to an undue slighting of their interests.


I suspect that's completely backwards. The vast majority of Americans aren't likely to overestimate the prosperity of lower-income Americans, since most of them *are* lower-income Americans (or were at some point). It's not like someone making 50k a year can't easily imagine what it's like to make 15k. Most of us went through a stage of our lives in which we did make little or no money.

A vastly more likely explanation is that most Americans grossly underestimate the prosperity of wealthy Americans. They don't have any experience with it and don't understand the volume of wealth involved. They think in terms of income. If I make 50k and am middle class, then someone making 200k is "wealthy", right? But wealth is about accumulation of wealth, not just income. That small business owner making 200k may have several million dollars in wealth accumulated into the value of his business. The guy making 50k a year has almost no wealth. He might own a car, and have some equity in a home, but nothing approaching the wealth of the 200k guy.

Obviously, someone making 25k/year, renting, and who doesn't own a car has virtually zero wealth. I suspect a lot of this is just a reflection of people not really understanding what "wealth" is and a lack of understanding about what the "wealthy" do with their wealth.
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#7 Sep 28 2010 at 5:15 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:


I suspect that's completely backwards. The vast majority of Americans aren't likely to overestimate the prosperity of lower-income Americans, since most of them *are* lower-income Americans (or were at some point). It's not like someone making 50k a year can't easily imagine what it's like to make 15k.


/facepalm

Imagining what it is like is not equal to how many of them there are :)

I get my information from facts, but if you prefer to just make crap up, I guess you have a reputation to uphold here.

Part of what keeps this place the assylum :)

#8 Sep 28 2010 at 5:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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#9 Sep 28 2010 at 5:43 PM Rating: Default
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yossarian wrote:
gbaji wrote:


I suspect that's completely backwards. The vast majority of Americans aren't likely to overestimate the prosperity of lower-income Americans, since most of them *are* lower-income Americans (or were at some point). It's not like someone making 50k a year can't easily imagine what it's like to make 15k.


/facepalm

Imagining what it is like is not equal to how many of them there are :)


Except that the chart is comparing assumptions about how much "wealth" the rich have versus how much people think they have. The conclusion that a discrepancy between those is because most Americans are overestimating how much wealth poor people have seems unsupported.

The comparison of "how many there are" is somewhat irrelevant. The numbers are broken up into quintiles. The conclusion I disagreed with wasn't that people didn't realize how many people are "poor", but that they thought that poor people had more relative wealth. Which I find completely absurd.

Quote:
I get my information from facts, but if you prefer to just make crap up, I guess you have a reputation to uphold here.


I wasn't disputing the facts. I was questioning a conclusion about those facts. There is nothing in that study which says *why* people think that the distribution is different than it is, yet there's a quote in the article making what I find to be an absurd explanation. It's vastly more likely that most Americans don't understand how much wealth the rich have than that they somehow think that poor people are less poor than they really are.

It's not hard to do the math either. In order for a wealthy person to live solely off their wealth, they'd need a couple million dollars just to live at the same earnings level as an employed person making 50k a year. All the employed person sees is someone living in his neighborhood at about the same living level as him and may have no clue that said person is a millionaire. Yet, the guy working to earn 50k a year might have 10-20k in assets, while the guy living on his investments right next door has several hundred times that much.

It's not hard at all to see that much of the wealth in the US is "hidden" in this way. It's all around us, but most of us don't see it. I could go on and talk about the vast amounts of wealth held by corporations, much of which is tied up in day to day operations of said corporations. Add up the total salaries of the employees, and it's a tiny fraction of the whole. We just don't see how much wealth is required for us to have those jobs and those salaries. That's why I'm not surprised at all that the perception is much lower than the reality. But it's *not* because we overestimate the wealth of the poor. It's because as a whole we have no clue how much wealth is floating around us, affecting us every single day, but that isn't directly related to the most common measurement of wealth: Income.

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Part of what keeps this place the assylum :)


Yes. I suppose it is! ;)

Edited, Sep 28th 2010 4:45pm by gbaji
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#10 Sep 28 2010 at 5:55 PM Rating: Good
ITT: Gbaji is full of ****.


Newsflash: not hardly.
#11 Sep 28 2010 at 6:15 PM Rating: Default
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ITT: Gbaji is full of sh*t.



yossarian wrote:
They also systematically underestimate the wealth the rich have.


Strange that yossarian made the same assumption I did. It's the conclusion any sane person should come to when looking at that data. Which is why it's strange that the article never says this, and the expert quoted in the article comes to a completely different conclusion.

You have an odd definition for "full of sh*t".
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#12 Sep 29 2010 at 9:05 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The numbers are broken up into quintiles. The conclusion I disagreed with wasn't that people didn't realize how many people are "poor", but that they thought that poor people had more relative wealth. Which I find completely absurd.


Then you didn't actually read the real life surveyed data as given to you in that bar chart, or you didn't understand the bar chart.
#13 Sep 29 2010 at 10:13 AM Rating: Excellent
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Disclaimer: I'm Canadian, so my numbers may not be equivalent but they should be close.

It's funny when I see people start arguing about things like this and using numbers like 50k vs 250k as their examples.

Most people do not make 50k a year. I currently make 43k a year, which is well above average (which I think is around 33-35k). That's middle class. Making 50k a year would drastically increase my wealth generation. 7k a year is HUGE for lower income people, it's the difference between being able to buy a house at some point or renting for the rest of your life. It's college for your kids. It's paying cash for a used car instead of financing and giving your money to a bank.

The financial gap keeps increasing because having money makes it easier to keep money. If a low income family buys a house they pay a mortgage for 25 years effectively paying double the cost of the home in order to buy it. If a higher income person buys a house they pay it off in 10 years or pay cash outright, paying little more than the actual value of the home while the poor person covers the rich person's retirement investment income.

Taxing a lower income person more than a higher income person just because the higher income person already has money is about the most absurd taxation model ever created.
#14 Sep 29 2010 at 4:28 PM Rating: Decent
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Aripyanfar wrote:
gbaji wrote:
The numbers are broken up into quintiles. The conclusion I disagreed with wasn't that people didn't realize how many people are "poor", but that they thought that poor people had more relative wealth. Which I find completely absurd.


Then you didn't actually read the real life surveyed data as given to you in that bar chart, or you didn't understand the bar chart.


I'm unsure what point you're trying to make here. The data is clear. There is a discrepancy between how wealth is actually divided and how people *think* is is divided (and even how they think it *should* be divided). My disagreement isn't with the data. It's with the conclusion in the section I quoted which stated that this is because people overestimate the relative wealth held by the bottom couple quintiles of the population (bottom 40%). To me, it's far more likely that people are grossly underestimating the amount of wealth held by the top 20% instead. So much so that when they draw a relative estimate, they can't help but place it at a more "reasonable" ratio (in their minds). People know that the wealthy have a larger percentage of the wealth, but most people can't actually grasp how much more.

That's where the skew comes from. I don't think that people think poor people are wealthier than they are. That just doesn't make sense. We all know that the bottom quintile is lucky to have a thousand dollars of net worth at any given time, and the 4th might have 10k tops (a old car and some furniture in their rented house). Compared to the wealth of the top quintile, and even the second and third quintiles, that's such a small relative amount that it's not even going to show up on a graph like the one they're using.

I'm kinda curious what you're trying to say here. What do you think those numbers mean?
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#15 Sep 30 2010 at 12:37 PM Rating: Good
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#16 Sep 30 2010 at 4:55 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
I'm kinda curious what you're trying to say here. What do you think those numbers mean?


It is clear people of all political persuasions feel there should be far, far less inequality then what exists - and they imagine we are closer to that point then we are.

They affirm the inherent value of human life and dignity.

In short, they are anti-gbajis.



I could go into how gbaji is technically wrong when he says things like "which stated that this is because people overestimate the relative wealth held by the bottom couple quintiles of the population (bottom 40%). To me, it's far more likely that people are grossly underestimating the amount of wealth held by the top 20% instead."

I have hope for gbaji's math skills. I think he can fix that statement. What I have no hope for in him is what the data overwhelmingly show exists in so many others.
#17 Oct 01 2010 at 9:10 AM Rating: Good
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This is an interview with economist Robert Reich about our economic disparity. It's kind of interesting.
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#18 Oct 01 2010 at 10:36 AM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:
This is an interview with economist Robert Reich about our economic disparity. It's kind of interesting.


I found listening to the interview with Robert Reich, much more informative then reading the transcript. A lot of what he is saying about the disparity between the income of the top 1% and the middle class, is reflected in how he talks about the subject.

Sadly he believes that it will take a few more years until Americans realize the problem with our economy is cause by having such a wide gap between the income earn by the middle and working class and that of the rich top 1%.
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#19 Oct 01 2010 at 1:52 PM Rating: Default
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yossarian wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I'm kinda curious what you're trying to say here. What do you think those numbers mean?


It is clear people of all political persuasions feel there should be far, far less inequality then what exists - and they imagine we are closer to that point then we are.


Except that income inequality is what creates economic prosperity. Most people don't understand this, which is what is really reflected in that data.

Quote:
They affirm the inherent value of human life and dignity.


No they don't. They reflect assumptions they've been taught to make by their teachers and the guy on the TV screen. It has nothing at all to do with human life or dignity.

Quote:

I could go into how gbaji is technically wrong when he says things like "which stated that this is because people overestimate the relative wealth held by the bottom couple quintiles of the population (bottom 40%). To me, it's far more likely that people are grossly underestimating the amount of wealth held by the top 20% instead."

I have hope for gbaji's math skills. I think he can fix that statement. What I have no hope for in him is what the data overwhelmingly show exists in so many others.


What math did I mess up? Each quintile defines a range that is 20% of the whole. I'm using the terms and numbers that are used in the linked page. Care to clarify what you're talking about?
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#20 Oct 01 2010 at 2:04 PM Rating: Default
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Elinda wrote:
This is an interview with economist Robert Reich about our economic disparity. It's kind of interesting.


He's also leading his horse quite well. His conclusion is that economic downturns are precipitated by high income inequality (top 1% having too much of the wealth). And he's right, if we restrict our discussion that to market crash type events. But he also attempts to argue that economic growth is low when wealth inequality is high, yet he points to one of the lower points as being during the late 70s (only 9% of wealth in the top 1%), which was one of the most anemic decades economically on record in the last century.

His conclusion is just flat out wrong. High income concentration at the top leads to volatility and increased chance of big swings and adjustments. But this is true in both directions. It leads to greater economic growth *and* it increases the odds of a crash. There is no data to support the assertion that it causes anemic economic growth though. Quite the opposite. Even just reading his own interview should make this clear. He talks about the income concentration at the top growing between 1880 and 1928, but that was also a period of massive economic prosperity. The same thing occurred during the post war period. It wasn't during FDRs term and the implementation of the New Deal that economic recovery occurred. The real recovery occurred after the war was over when wealth once again started concentrating at the top. Same thing again for the period between 1980 and 2007. Huge prosperity increases occurred again, coinciding with an increase in the concentration of wealth at the top.


If we're to look at correlations, we can see that the longest periods of depression/recession occurred during time periods when people who think like him attempted to manipulate the economy to prevent wealth concentration. The 1930s and 40s, the period in which his idol Mr Eccles was running the show was completely anemic economically. We employed similar economic policies through the late 60s and 70s. If we can draw any conclusions, it's that trying to prevent wealth concentration only slows down economic growth. It may not cause a recession, but it also kills jobs and opportunities.

Edited, Oct 1st 2010 1:05pm by gbaji
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#21 Oct 01 2010 at 3:41 PM Rating: Excellent
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Slowing things down a bit can be a good thing. The more growth the more volatile the market is overall. You need to strike a balance between the two.
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#22 Oct 01 2010 at 5:39 PM Rating: Default
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Sir Xsarus wrote:
Slowing things down a bit can be a good thing. The more growth the more volatile the market is overall. You need to strike a balance between the two.


Sure. But that's not what he said. He specifically claimed that increased wealth concentration at the top was correlated with anemic growth. That is clearly not only false, but it's exactly the opposite of what it's actually correlated with.

If he wanted to make an argument that with higher concentrations of wealth at the top come both faster growth *and* increased risk, he should have. And I don't think many would disagree with him. But instead, he choose to attempt to fit the square peg of truth into the round hole of the economic polices he wants in place.


The broader, and perhaps more relevant point to this is that the same factors which create that volatility and market crashes are *also* what helps markets recover from them over time. Unfortunately, what the left seems to want to do is every time a market crash occurs, they blame capitalism and the rich for it (and there's a kernel of truth there) and impose restrictions on their actions. But the net result of that is to prevent (or slow down) recovery from the crash.

An analogy would be like driving a car at 80mph and missing your exit on the freeway. After 5 minutes, you notice you're going the wrong way. You could just turn the car around and be back where you were in 5 minutes and continue on your journey. But instead you blame the fact that you were driving so fast for why you missed the exit in the first place and decide to slow down to 20mph while heading back. While that may be safer, and it'll reduce the chances of missing an exit, it'll also make it take longer to get back on course.
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#23 Oct 01 2010 at 7:09 PM Rating: Default
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Let me give you a second thought on this:

Sir Xsarus wrote:
Slowing things down a bit can be a good thing. The more growth the more volatile the market is overall. You need to strike a balance between the two.


Not when you just had a market crash. Slowing down growth when heading into a bubble might be a good idea (but is often very very difficult to implement). Slowing down growth when you're in an artificial trench due to market overreaction after a crash is the worst thing you can do. You end out "stuck" at the bottom point. Which is what happened during the great depression, and is what is happening right now.
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#24 Oct 01 2010 at 7:38 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
Except that income inequality is what creates economic prosperity.
Great! Let's just re-establish feudalism then and ensure that the income inequality exists at all times.

Honesty + sarcasm = this post. Income inequality itself is not what creates economic prosperity, but I'd have no problem with feudalism.
#25 Oct 01 2010 at 8:18 PM Rating: Decent
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MDenham wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Except that income inequality is what creates economic prosperity.
Great! Let's just re-establish feudalism then and ensure that the income inequality exists at all times.

Honesty + sarcasm = this post. Income inequality itself is not what creates economic prosperity, but I'd have no problem with feudalism.


In an industrial economy utilizing capitalism (like ours), my statement about income inequality is valid. Obviously, for land based feudalisms, income inequality has nothing to do with prosperity, but that's because of the zero sum nature of those economies. If the land owner takes a larger share of the bounty of the land, it doesn't tend to increase the bounty next year. It just makes him richer relative to those who work the land.

Which is precisely why Marx and Engles got it wrong. They applied the same zero sum assumptions to industrial capitalism as land based feudalism (and who could blame them, that was all they knew) and therefore made grossly incorrect assessments of the problems of income distribution in an industrial world. Sadly, some people still continue to parrot those false assumptions despite a century and a half of incredibly solid evidence showing just how horribly wrong they were. At the end of the day, standard of living isn't based on relative income distribution. It's based on how much you actually have. And in an industrial based capitalism the benefits to the working class in terms of new products, higher quality products, and lower priced products has provided them with vast improvements in that standard despite their relative wealth decreasing compared to "the rich".


We're obsessed with the wrong things. Relative wealth is irrelevant. It hasn't been a reliable measurement of standard of living for 150 years. When will people stop trying to use it anyway?
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#26 Oct 01 2010 at 11:16 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Let me give you a second thought on this:

Sir Xsarus wrote:
Slowing things down a bit can be a good thing. The more growth the more volatile the market is overall. You need to strike a balance between the two.


Not when you just had a market crash. Slowing down growth when heading into a bubble might be a good idea (but is often very very difficult to implement). Slowing down growth when you're in an artificial trench due to market overreaction after a crash is the worst thing you can do. You end out "stuck" at the bottom point. Which is what happened during the great depression, and is what is happening right now.
Sure, but I wasn't making a point about this crash, I was addressing your post which was just talking generally. Maybe you didn't mean to come across that way, but that's not really my problem. My point is also not about slowing or speeding the market up at specific times, but that it's not bad to create an environment of somewhat throttled growth, as that leads to more stability. You don't want to throttle it too much of course. The idea that any throttling of growth is bad is silly.

Edited, Oct 2nd 2010 12:17am by Xsarus
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