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#27 Sep 22 2010 at 2:38 PM Rating: Decent
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With Geithner and Emanuel, it looks like Obama's staff is making an exodus *to* Illinois.
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#28 Sep 22 2010 at 3:10 PM Rating: Default
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LockeColeMA wrote:
varusword75 wrote:
Locked,

Sorry little buddy but two poor quarters at the end of an unpopular presidents tenure does not mean recession.


Which is all fine and dandy, as that's not the indicator the NBER uses, although most other groups do.


So we're still in a recession then? Which is it? Are you saying that we can't use the "2 consecutive quarters" calculation to determine if Obama's candidacy and policies had any effect on entering a recession, but we must use it when determining if we're still in economic dodo under Obama today?

That seems remarkably selective to me...


Funny word games aside, there are still some serious economic problems out there right now. And while both sides will play said word games to try to gain advantage politically, I suspect that most people care more about the reality of unemployment, sluggish growth, teetering markets, and the looming threat posed by current deficit levels.
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#29 Sep 22 2010 at 3:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Funny word games aside, there are still some serious economic problems out there right now. And while both sides will play said word games to try to gain advantage politically, I suspect that most people care more about the reality of unemployment, sluggish growth, teetering markets, and the looming threat posed by current deficit levels.
This. 100% this.

Although, this is a sign things are getting better. Whether that's because the economy hit rock bottom or whether it's because of policies put in place isn't as important as the fact that it's improving.

Edited, Sep 22nd 2010 6:17pm by Uglysasquatch
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#30 Sep 22 2010 at 3:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Are you saying that we can't use the "2 consecutive quarters" calculation to determine if Obama's candidacy and policies had any effect on entering a recession

Locke aside, you could certainly use it to determine when the recession officially started. Trying to pin it on Obama's candidacy is another matter entirely.
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#31 Sep 22 2010 at 3:31 PM Rating: Excellent
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Whether that's because the economy hit rock bottom or whether it's because of policies put in place
I'm pretty sure we could have been much, much worse off given that many countries (including us) have ended up much worse post-bubble pop in the past.


The more interesting question is what economic indicator levels should be considered "normal", and not "artificially-high-disaster-waiting-to-happen".
#32 Sep 22 2010 at 3:32 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Are you saying that we can't use the "2 consecutive quarters" calculation to determine if Obama's candidacy and policies had any effect on entering a recession

Locke aside, you could certainly use it to determine when the recession officially started. Trying to pin it on Obama's candidacy is another matter entirely.


It seemed like he was trying to argue that the recession really started before that time period, so it couldn't have had anything to do with Obama. I don't personally buy the "Obama caused it!" argument either, but this just seemed like a strange way to counter argue the point.

It's kinda hard to try to untangle the impacts from an industry which might be concerned about the rising popularity of Obama during that time period, and concern about the failing banks going on at the same time period, and I think any attempts to do so really only reflect the bias of the person making the claim. Both were going on at the same time. What effect either had is questionable at best.


IMO, the more relevant argument from a conservative point of view is to point at the actions of the Democrat controlled congress during the time in question. One can specifically look at their politicizing of TARP during the campaign, and their transformation of said plan from what Secretary Paulson originally intended to what ultimately became law. I would argue that had much much more impact on perceptions in the business community as to how the Democrats were going to handle the financial crisis than anything else. And it wasn't a good impression.

When the recession started or ended is less important than the health and recovery process which gets us out and back to a vibrant economy. The biggest problem for the Dems is that their policies are seen to have been irrelevant at best in terms of GDP (ie: recession measurement), and to have made the general economic outlook worse over time. All the other stuff which people care about a hell of a lot more than a GDP measurement can pretty easily be laid at the feet of the Dems politically.
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#33 Sep 22 2010 at 3:38 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
All the other stuff which people care about a hell of a lot more than a GDP measurement can pretty easily be laid at the feet of the Dems politically.

I finally got another real full-time job. Thanks Dems!
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#34 Sep 22 2010 at 3:50 PM Rating: Good
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I don't personally buy the "Obama caused it!" argument either
because it's absolutely ridiculous?

Varus is the only one that can make the "Bill Clinton caused all this!" people look rational.

Debalic wrote:
gbaji wrote:
All the other stuff which people care about a hell of a lot more than a GDP measurement can pretty easily be laid at the feet of the Dems politically.

I finally got another real full-time job. Thanks Dems!

lol



I'm reminded of how news organizations had a period were they would look at stock tickers during daytime speeches and try fruitlessly to connect the dots to politics while completely ignoring actual business information (mergers, IPOs, FDA reports, market research reports, etc). Even more amusing was when different networks would come up with completely contradictory explanations of the same numbers.
#35 Sep 22 2010 at 4:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
It's kinda hard to try to untangle the impacts from an industry which might be concerned about the rising popularity of Obama during that time period, and concern about the failing banks going on at the same time period, and I think any attempts to do so really only reflect the bias of the person making the claim. Both were going on at the same time. What effect either had is questionable at best.

Not that there's anything near equal validity to the claims, of course.
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#36 Sep 22 2010 at 4:15 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
It's kinda hard to try to untangle the impacts from an industry which might be concerned about the rising popularity of Obama during that time period, and concern about the failing banks going on at the same time period, and I think any attempts to do so really only reflect the bias of the person making the claim. Both were going on at the same time. What effect either had is questionable at best.

Not that there's anything near equal validity to the claims, of course.


I didn't say there was. It's like looking at the course a sailboat takes, and without measuring the wind or the current, attempting to assess to which degree which one of those factors had on the resulting heading and speed. We can all speculate that any of a number of factors (not just the two mentioned) had an impact on the economic outcome, but it's silly to attempt to weigh them.
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#37 Sep 22 2010 at 4:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
It's like looking at the course a sailboat takes, and without measuring the wind or the current, attempting to assess to which degree which one of those factors had on the resulting heading and speed.

Right. Of course you can reasonably guess that a storm in the area had more effect on it than, say, the number of spider monkeys in the Cincinnati Zoo.

Obama's candidacy was the spider monkeys.
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#38 Sep 22 2010 at 4:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
gbaji wrote:
All the other stuff which people care about a hell of a lot more than a GDP measurement can pretty easily be laid at the feet of the Dems politically.

I finally got another real full-time job. Thanks Dems!


My husband quit his dead-end job and got a much better one the following week. Thanks Dems!
#39 Sep 22 2010 at 4:53 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
It's like looking at the course a sailboat takes, and without measuring the wind or the current, attempting to assess to which degree which one of those factors had on the resulting heading and speed.

Right. Of course you can reasonably guess that a storm in the area had more effect on it than, say, the number of spider monkeys in the Cincinnati Zoo.

Obama's candidacy was the spider monkeys.

We should rule America by law of chaos theory. Dr. Malcolm for President!
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we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#40 Sep 22 2010 at 7:59 PM Rating: Excellent
So Gbaji & all you other right wingers, how much better would the economy be if all the money these companies are spending on political activism were spent on creating new jobs?
#41 Sep 22 2010 at 9:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, the advertising agencies would be kind of miffed about losing all their jobs I suppose...

I'm all for it though. Limit campaign ad spending, set up laws giving all candidates and issues an equil set amount of initial ad space in newspapers, TV, other publications, then let them buy more after that up to the limit if they want, but get rid of the deep pocket corporate interests.
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#42 Sep 22 2010 at 10:39 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, the advertising agencies would be kind of miffed about losing all their jobs I suppose...
There is always more snake oil to hock
#43 Sep 22 2010 at 10:47 PM Rating: Good
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varusword75 wrote:
Didn't you hear the economy is fixed

It was under warranty.
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#44 Sep 23 2010 at 6:10 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
LockeColeMA wrote:
varusword75 wrote:
Locked,

Sorry little buddy but two poor quarters at the end of an unpopular presidents tenure does not mean recession.


Which is all fine and dandy, as that's not the indicator the NBER uses, although most other groups do.


So we're still in a recession then? Which is it? Are you saying that we can't use the "2 consecutive quarters" calculation to determine if Obama's candidacy and policies had any effect on entering a recession, but we must use it when determining if we're still in economic dodo under Obama today?


/eyebrow

I have no idea what you're saying, but I'm guessing you somehow misinterpreted what I said by filtering it through a political lens. Surprise surprise. Varus's insanity aside, he said that two poor quarters is not a recession. I meant that, since we're talking about the NBER report, that's true in this case. We still were in a recession, though, even though they didn't use the same, more general, criteria that most economic groups do.

I couldn't care less who was president at the time, as we all know Varus is nuts. Point is, according to the NBER report we were in a recession until July 2009. Varus disputed this, but just went on to show he doesn't understand what a recession is - generally, or in the terms of the NBER.
#45 Sep 23 2010 at 1:29 PM Rating: Default
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Technogeek wrote:
So Gbaji & all you other right wingers, how much better would the economy be if all the money these companies are spending on political activism were spent on creating new jobs?


How much money would that be, exactly? Is it more or less money than that spent by say public employee unions? So... If I don't like what a company supports politically, I can choose to not buy their products and therefore limit their influence on politics. But if I don't like what the Teachers Union supports politically, what can I do exactly? Not pay my taxes?


BTW. This is what I mean when I say that companies are subject to market forces and governments are not. One of those things is something we *should* be upset about (tax dollars effectively being used for political activism). The other just isn't. It's not surprising that most people get it backwards though.
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#46 Sep 23 2010 at 1:37 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
Technogeek wrote:
So Gbaji & all you other right wingers, how much better would the economy be if all the money these companies are spending on political activism were spent on creating new jobs?


How much money would that be, exactly? Is it more or less money than that spent by say public employee unions? So... If I don't like what a company supports politically, I can choose to not buy their products and therefore limit their influence on politics. But if I don't like what the Teachers Union supports politically, what can I do exactly? Not pay my taxes?


BTW. This is what I mean when I say that companies are subject to market forces and governments are not. One of those things is something we *should* be upset about (tax dollars effectively being used for political activism). The other just isn't. It's not surprising that most people get it backwards though.


Way to not actually answer the question. I also knew you or Varus would drag up Unions. I view unions as just another big business that should be spending it's peoples money on the people in the union, not on political activism.

The point is, Big business, the people really making the big money, do not give one red damn about the economy. They will be rich whether the economy is good or bad.

The right wing like to say "What's good for business is good for America" I say ******** to that. "What's good for business is good for business".
#47 Sep 23 2010 at 2:10 PM Rating: Default
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Technogeek wrote:
Way to not actually answer the question.


It was an unfair question. It starts with the premise that private companies have some kind of obligation to spend their money on what you want them to spend it on, and further that spending money on "political activism" is somehow automatically at ends with spending it "creating more jobs". If a company can make more money by hiring more people, it will. That decision isn't capricious, or political. If, by lobbying government, it can prevent laws from being passed which will hurt their bottom line, and thus allow them to hire more people, they'll do it. Said activism benefits both the company *and* the people they employ.


Quote:
I also knew you or Varus would drag up Unions. I view unions as just another big business that should be spending it's peoples money on the people in the union, not on political activism.


And yet, you mentioned companies. You singled them out as though somehow them getting involved in politics is "wrong", but not anyone else. I could just as easily argue that all those non-profit "community organizations" which take money from donations and then spend it on political activism could instead spend that money on soup kitchens and loans to small businesses to help the community members directly. Yet I don't see you complaining about them, either.

Quote:
The point is, Big business, the people really making the big money, do not give one red damn about the economy. They will be rich whether the economy is good or bad.


Except that they become rich by providing a good or service to the public, which the public freely chooses to use. They overwhelmingly do this via employment. Thus, their profit motive helps all of us. It helps the people they employ, and it helps the consumers by providing them a better product. And if the company does things which the public doesn't like, the public can boycott them. Can we boycott the government? I'm much much more concerned about government power and influence than private companies getting wealthy.

What does a union do? It increases the cost of labor, thus increasing the cost of the goods and services they provide. And they do this with a virtual monopoly in the areas where they exist. Public employee unions don't have *any* competition at all. And they're funded by taxpayer dollars. And the unions get a piece of that. And they spend it lobbying for even more support for the union.

If we're going to talk about political activism which is negative in effect, what the hell can be said about a process where a group of politicians increase funding for some public sector jobs, which in turn enriches the union, which then turns around and spends that increased money supporting the issues and campaigns of the very politicians who just gave them that money? It's about as corrupt as can be, yet almost no one talks about it.

When a private corporation lobbies the government, the end result is almost always going to be positive for everyone else. When public unions do, it's almost always going to be negative. So yeah. It's relevant to point this out.

Quote:
The right wing like to say "What's good for business is good for America" I say bullsh*t to that. "What's good for business is good for business".


But what's good for business is good for America, so we still end out in the same place. Are you trying to argue that a law which decreases corporate profits will somehow magically result in increased hiring by that corporation? How exactly do you think that works? When you make the people who hire people less wealthy, you really only hurt the people they might have hired. Do you honestly think it works some other way? If so, how about you explain why?

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 1:14pm by gbaji
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#48 Sep 23 2010 at 2:13 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
When a private corporation lobbies the government, the end result is almost always going to be positive for everyone else.

Unless it's the pharmaceutical industry. Or the banking industry. Or the insurance industry. Or the energy industry. Or the agribusiness industry. Or...
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#49 Sep 23 2010 at 2:19 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
When a private corporation lobbies the government, the end result is almost always going to be positive for everyone else.

Unless it's the pharmaceutical industry. Or the banking industry. Or the insurance industry. Or the energy industry. Or the agribusiness industry. Or...


On the whole, we're better off if those industries are healthy and successful, than if they are not. With the possible exception of the pharmaceutical industry, all the others make money only if there are consumers willing to pay for their goods and services. Crashing the economy is not in their best interest.

And the pharma industry is an exception specifically because of the massive influence government has in the health care industry. So once again, we see that it's the intervention of government into business which create the potential for corruption. When government becomes a major consumer of a product, you're going to have problems.
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#50 Sep 23 2010 at 2:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
On the whole, we're better off if those industries are healthy and successful, than if they are not.

Hello, excluded middle! The reality is that if they can maximize profit by ******** over a number of people vs making less profit (which is not the same as going bankrupt) by helping those people, they'll choose the former.
Quote:
With the possible exception of the pharmaceutical industry, all the others make money only if there are consumers willing to pay for their goods and services.

Right! Provided you don't want to eat or turn on the lights or purchase a home or see a physician about that cancer problem, you just stick to the the business! That'll learn 'em!
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#51 Sep 23 2010 at 2:48 PM Rating: Good
It's not a one sided thing, whats good for consumers is good for big business as well. In fact, "trickle up" policies usually work better for the system overall, as the lower class generally has decreased ability to abuse any shift in power towards them.

Quote:
When a private corporation lobbies the government, the end result is almost always going to be positive for everyone else.

lolno, there are plenty of obvious examples like "safety" (worker/consumer), discrimination, contemporary peonage, and "environmental impact" where this is obviously not true. Additionally the benefit a company receives from policy changes (via lobbying or otherwise) is often only felt by the upper echelon of the company, not passed down to the consumers or employees. In practice "trickle down" policies just don't work.
Quote:
intervention of government into business which create the potential for corruption.
There is plenty of corruption without government intervention as well. Increasing government intervention via regulation may increase "corruption potential" in a vague sense just by adding more players, but not necessarily "corruption likelihood" as the more players there are and transparency there is the more eyes and checks there are to point out and deal with corruption.
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