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Amnesty for illegalsFollow

#52 Jul 06 2010 at 7:59 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Except that what I actually said was that the counter argument against amnesty predicted that it would encourage more people to cross the border illegally and result in a larger number of illegals living in the US over time. I followed that up with an observation that their prediction came true. The existence of other factors is irrelevant to the correctness of the prediction, and may even have been taken into account.

Hehehe.... ok, then. Hey, Lindsay Lohan was sentenced to 90 days in jail so I predict the sun will rise tomorrow. I guess we'll know in about 8-10 hours how my prediction worked out.

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Really? How many have you actually heard say that?

Quite a few, actually. Hell, I've heard people ***** about it on this very forum but I'm more interested in people I've spoken to on a flesh 'n blood basis.
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#53 Jul 06 2010 at 8:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
And do I have to explain to you that failure to account for every possible variable doesn't equate a prediction to a correlation fallacy?

Failure to account for any except the one you like the most sure counts as a fallacy though.
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#54 Jul 06 2010 at 8:19 PM Rating: Decent
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Since some of you seem to have forgotten. This is what I actually said:

gbaji wrote:
The counter argument was that if we did grant amnesty, it would only serve to increase the incentive to use illegal entry into the US as a way of short cutting the immigration process resulting in an increase in illegal border crossings and an increase in the total number of people living here illegally.


This is the "action/result prediction". It's entirely about how the past amnesty would influence decisions made by future potential illegal immigrants and makes the reasonable assumption that all other factors aside it will make the decision to travel to and stay in the US illegally more attractive. How much more? Who knows. That wasn't the issue, only that it would be more attractive than if you hadn't granted an amnesty.


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Which ended out being exactly right. A dozen years after his amnesty, the number of illegals estimated in the US ballooned to 12 million.


For those following along, this was *not* part of the prediction. This is what happened. And what happened followed the prediction. No one said that if we had an amnesty that in 12 years we'd have 12 million more illegals in the US. They simply said that if we had an amnesty, we'd have more illegals in the country down the line.

Which was true. At some point, you have to give credit for the guys who predicted what would happen. More to the point, it's legitimate to criticize the folks who said it wouldn't happen. That's what tends to get lost in all of this. All the arguments that X would have happened anyway fail to address the issue of those who argued that X wouldn't happen at all.

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It failed pretty spectacularly at "fixing" the problem. Conservative opposition to amnesty isn't based on some knee jerk anti-immigrant bigotry. It's based on the fact that not only did it not work the last time we tried it, it made the problem worse.


And this is the bit that Joph decided (predictably) to focus purely on the "but there are bigots out there!" approach. Um... Not the point. Conservatives oppose amnesty because it didn't work the last time. The degree to which it didn't work is kinda irrelevant, isn't it?
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#55 Jul 06 2010 at 8:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Hehehe.... ok, then. Hey, Lindsay Lohan was sentenced to 90 days in jail so I predict the sun will rise tomorrow. I guess we'll know in about 8-10 hours how my prediction worked out.


Lol. Sure Joph. You failed at the "X is to Y, as "B is to ?" questions, didn't you? Are you seriously suggesting that the relationship between granting amnesty to illegal immigrants and future illegal immigration rates is similar to the relationship between Lohan being in jail and the sun rising?

You're not that dumb, so how about leaving the stupid analogies at home, ok?

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Really? How many have you actually heard say that?

Quite a few, actually. Hell, I've heard people ***** about it on this very forum but I'm more interested in people I've spoken to on a flesh 'n blood basis.


And they used the phrase "dirty Mexicans"?
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#56 Jul 06 2010 at 8:43 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:


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Really? How many have you actually heard say that?

Quite a few, actually. Hell, I've heard people ***** about it on this very forum but I'm more interested in people I've spoken to on a flesh 'n blood basis.


And they used the phrase "dirty Mexicans"?


Actually my ex's stepfather used that term when talking about anyone of Mexican descent, That is all but the one guy he work which, in the classic "I have this one friend who is..." response.

He live in Escondido and was a classic bigot and sexist, who didn't like anyone who wasn't a WASP. Women where to stay home and have children, who were never allow to cry in his presence.

He was a good cook though and made great pickle peppers. Since he didn't have but a small plot next to the trailer, and always had to have something pickle with his meals, most of the peppers came from the same friends garden, up towards Valley Center. His Chicken Paprika and dumplings are just about the only thing I missed about him.
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#57 Jul 06 2010 at 8:44 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
For those following along, this was *not* part of the prediction. This is what happened. And what happened followed the prediction. No one said that if we had an amnesty that in 12 years we'd have 12 million more illegals in the US. They simply said that if we had an amnesty, we'd have more illegals in the country down the line.

Which was true. At some point, you have to give credit for the guys who predicted what would happen.
I'm going to predict that even if we don't have an amnesty, we'll have more illegals in the country down the line.

Because that's also held true in the past.

So... conclusion: "amnesties are irrelevant as to whether or not we get more illegals in the country."

The solution to slowing down the increase in illegals is making our country less import-dependent and sealing the borders, as unpalatable as that sounds; or making the country less pleasant to be in than their home country, which is even less palatable to people who live here. (Or requiring everyone in the country to carry a form of ID, regardless of whether or not they're citizens, which gets complained about as an infringement on people's rights.)
#58 Jul 06 2010 at 8:54 PM Rating: Excellent
gbaji wrote:
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Really? How many have you actually heard say that?

Quite a few, actually. Hell, I've heard people ***** about it on this very forum but I'm more interested in people I've spoken to on a flesh 'n blood basis.


And they used the phrase "dirty Mexicans"?


While I would assume that Joph was editorializing the exact phrasing, I myself have heard people grumbling about Mexican immigrants (and they don't usually use the word "illegal," either, but I've seen a few put air quotes around the word immigrants), and blaming them directly for having to "press 1 for English." They mumble something about being in America, and learning to speak English, and seem to think that having to press an extra number is somehow personally offensive, and is in some way detracting from this country. And almost all of them seem to think that English is the official language of this country. Which is just sad, really.

As a matter of fact, a couple of people are so pissed off about it, they wrote a horrible song about it. (The comments are priceless, too.) Some other people are so vexed about it, they made a website called http://www.dontpressoneforenglish.com. And here's another website with a blog all about how the "press one for English" thing is a direct result of the illegal immigrants.

#59 Jul 06 2010 at 9:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
You failed at the "X is to Y, as "B is to ?" questions, didn't you?

Nope. Only difference is that when I do it, it's because I'm making a point and when you do it, it's because you don't know any better.

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And they used the phrase "dirty Mexicans"?

Is that really the hair you need to split to reconcile yourself with the racist inclinations of many in your party? Ok then...
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Belkira wrote:
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#60 Jul 07 2010 at 9:16 AM Rating: Decent
gbaji wrote:
Since some of you seem to have forgotten. This is what I actually said:


How hard are you going to ride that when over in the Steele thread you claim this is what he meant to say, instead of what he actually said.

That's your problem Gbaji, you can't even keep your own ****** talk points together.
#61 Jul 07 2010 at 10:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'd like to note that the sun rose today. Score another one for Mlle Lohan.
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Belkira wrote:
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#62 Jul 07 2010 at 10:28 PM Rating: Good
Yup, conservatives change with the times all right.

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* The Republican Party platform of 1956 called for "broadened coverage in unemployment insurance" and "better health protection for all our people." It vowed to "continue vigorously to support the United Nations."

It pledged support for "progressive programs" to expand workers' rights. It vowed an immigration policy that ensured that America would remain a "haven for oppresssed peoples."

* The Republican Party platform of 1960 hailed the GOP's success in extending unemployment insurance. The GOP counted as an achievement its efforts to raise the Federal minimum wage.

The platform hailed expanded Social Security coverage and pledged an aggressive Federal effort to help those struggling with health care costs (in those pre-Medicare days, the primary focus was on the elderly). It pledged to continue robust Federal intervention to preserve the environment.


#63 Jul 08 2010 at 7:29 AM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
I'd like to note that the sun rose today. Score another one for Mlle Lohan.


Holy ****, two days in a row.

Gasp! What does this mean for Gbaji?! Dun-dun-duh...
#64 Jul 08 2010 at 7:40 AM Rating: Decent
Mdenham,

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I'm going to predict that even if we don't have an amnesty, we'll have more illegals in the country down the line.



and I'm going to predict that if we provide amnesty we're going to see this recession turn into a depression real quickly. Fortunatley for me people are always going to need insurance.


#65 Jul 08 2010 at 9:13 AM Rating: Decent
knoxxsouthy wrote:
Fortunatley for me people are always going to need insurance.


And fortunatly for us, fewer and fewer every day.
#66 Jul 08 2010 at 9:38 AM Rating: Excellent
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I was reading an article about the irrigation debate which stated that we currently have ~12 million illegal immigrants in the country. According to Gbaji, between 1984 and 1996, we skyrocketed to 12 million illegal immigrants because of Reagan's amnesty.

You know what this means, don't you? Clinton stopped any illegal immigration growth!
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Belkira wrote:
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#67 Jul 08 2010 at 4:21 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
I was reading an article about the irrigation debate which stated that we currently have ~12 million illegal immigrants in the country. According to Gbaji, between 1984 and 1996, we skyrocketed to 12 million illegal immigrants because of Reagan's amnesty.


Except that the Reagan Amnesty occurred in 1986, not 1984. My "a dozen" years was an estimate, since I didn't feel like calculating the precise number of years and the value at some undetermined endpoint. I do recall that around 2000, most estimates were saying 12 million illegals in the US. Today, those same sources are saying 15 million, with some going as high as 20 million.

Kinda depends on which numbers you're looking at. The Census says about 8 million, but everyone agrees that the census is under counting illegals by as much as half, and some say more than that. Who's number do you use? Some say it's 12 million today. Some were saying 12 million in 2004. Some were saying 12 million in 2000. I suppose I could pick a high number for 2000, and you could pick a low number for 2010, and then proclaim that no additional illegals entered the country during that time period, but that would just be playing with the numbers, wouldn't it?

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You know what this means, don't you? Clinton stopped any illegal immigration growth!


Yeah... Um. NO. Unless you're suggesting that Clinton wasn't in office between 1992 and 1998, that is?


The larger point is that anyone who isn't a total idiot will acknowledge that the granting of amnesty by Regan created an additional incentive for illegals to enter and stay in the country. How much is clearly subject to debate, but in the context of preventing undocumented aliens from living in the country, the amnesty was clearly the wrong thing to do.
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#68 Jul 08 2010 at 7:04 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Yeah... Um. NO. Unless you're suggesting that Clinton wasn't in office between 1992 and 1998, that is?

'Grats on not understanding a joke?
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#69 Jul 08 2010 at 10:34 PM Rating: Good
Remember Joph, many poor conservatives have stunted sarcasm and satire detection meters. That's why a lot of them believe that The Colbert Report is Comedy Central being Fair and Balanced against The Daily Show.
#70 Jul 11 2010 at 2:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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I don't care about the jobs issue. If an immigrant takes your job, try harder, or go do something else. We're capitolists damn it! I don't care about the race issue: I don't think we should be allowing ANY illegal immigration regardless of race or nationality. What I do care about is the security, tax and infrastructure issues.

You want to let more people into the country? Great, pass a law, change immigration standards (the democrats have enough votes they could make that stick if they really wanted) and let more people in. But do it so they go through a legal process, are registered for taxation purposes, and so we have a bit of information about who we are letting in. triple homicide conviction escaped prisoner? no, I don't think we need to let you in the country.

These people setting up illegal immigation highways into the country are just begging for someone to slip a few Al qaeda operatives through. They have already tried it before, didn't go so well that time, but who knows how many attempts did work out?

Really, there should be a method for someone to buy their citizinship here. Those illgeal immigrants you hear about who enter the country, make it big and then get caught? let em stay. charge them a fee, make them take the test and whatnot, but we should be rewarding those people and getting rid of the ones who are a drain on the system.

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#71 Jul 11 2010 at 4:49 PM Rating: Good
I'm a illegal, been one for almost 7 years now. No i'm not Mexican, i'm Guyanese. I would love for Obama to reform immigration, reasons...So i can get basics rights like having a drivers license and have the option to go to college these basics rights most American take for granted would make my life so much easier. And for those of you wondering i do work on the books and i pay taxes, i have a tax id number, i get to pay taxes but i don't get basics rights. Sucks don't it.
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