Jophiel wrote:
Aripyanfar wrote:
Right now "The Bank Of" China has decided to downgrade your credit score, and has put a new, lower maximum on your credit card with them. You are going to have to wait a long time, and be a responsible repayer of debts before China is going to raise your credit max again.
Actually, the US has been paying its interest just fine which, in terms of debt, is really what the debtor cares about.
Not entirely. He also cares about the value of the currency the debt is in relative to his own. As the total quantity of debt increases, this concern becomes self fulfilling. In order to entice others to buy the bonds, you have to offer a higher interest rate. This (combined with other related factors) causes inflation, which affects the relative value of the bonds when they mature. This makes the next round of lenders demand even higher interest rates. Rinse and repeat and you end out in an inflationary spiral.
High public debt, no matter how you deal with it, risks creation of said inflation problem. While that *can* potentially help you get out of debt (cause you don't have to pay off as much as you borrowed relatively speaking), that only works
if you stop spending more than you can afford at some point. So far, there's no sign of this coming from the Dems. One can only presume that their eventual solution will have to be massive tax increases (gee! If only someone had seen that coming...).
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These are bonds so China can't "call them in" or anything; they mature when they're set to mature and if you want your money earlier, you have to sell them to someone else who'll wait for them to mature.
Again. It's not really the selling of the bonds that is the problem, but the lack of people willing to buy them. This factor only highlights that. If you know you have to wait X amount of years for the bond to mature, you're going to be really really hesitant to invest if you're unsure that what you'll get out the other side is going to be worth more than what you pay in today.
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The situation with China is more political than fiscal; China is trying to "punish" the US for weapon sales to Taiwan and meeting with the Dali Lama but, at the same time, China's economy is wholly dependent upon the US so they can't do anything to legitimately hurt us.
Sure. Maybe. But it's not like we're doing that stuff to any greater degree today than 5 years ago, or 5 years before that... What has "changed"? I'd argue that the politics are the excuse for the economic decisions and not the other way around, but obviously we'd both just be speculating either way.