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#402 Feb 03 2010 at 8:54 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
In other news: Fun chart detailing the deficits. Let's all ignore Varus crying because it was in the NYT and actually look at it. The largest single source of the current deficit was spending under Bush (and the Republican Congress). Not just the wars which were unfunded and pushed out of the budget using supplementary spending but also the massive (unpaid for) Medicare Prescription Part D program and the (also unpaid for) Bush tax cuts.


Oh come off it Joph. The starting point for Bush is a "projected surplus" based I can only assume off someone imagining that we'd just keep taxing at the same rate and not actually do anything else. It's one of the more absurd measurements you can use.

I also bolded the most significant point here. The bulk of the deficit run by Bush occurred as a result of his tax cuts. Yes. The prescription thingie added some. And the wars added some. And normal government spending increases in the non-discretionary budget areas added some (as it does every single year unless massive efforts are made to avoid it). But the bulk of the deficit was because Bush's federal government simply took a smaller piece of the countries economic pie. A significantly smaller piece...

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The second largest source of the current deficit is lost revenue from the recession, dating back to 2007. The third largest source was programs enacted by Bush and supported by Obama. Programs solely created in this administration make up a notable minority of the deficit.



Only if you start with the magical unicorn guess of an 800B surplus which Bush was supposed to have (and that's fanciful by anyone's standards). That presents a very false perception. The reality is that if you take away tax cuts which reduced total federal revenues, and look only at spending increases compared to actual economic losses causing revenue reduction and calculate that as a "intended deficit" versus "opps! We broke the economy! Deficit", you'll find that the deficits generated in 2009 stack up there with those in 2008, both of which dwarf anything Bush did early in his administration.


Surely we can agree that there's a difference between a few hundred billion dollar deficit delta resulting from lower taxes, and the same delta caused by economic collapse and the same delta caused by massive spending increases. The first condition is not nearly as bad as the other two even when the dollar amounts are identical. I'm sure you can noodle out why...
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#403 Feb 03 2010 at 9:41 PM Rating: Default
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And just because it's something I've harped on in the past and will do again: Individual yearly deficit numbers aren't really as relevant as the resulting "debt held by public as a percentage of GDP" number. That's what tells us how "big" our debt really is. For most of Clinton's administration, that number was in the high 40s, finally dropping in the last few years. During the Bush administration it stayed pretty consistently in the mid 30s. The very last year of his administration (2008), it jumped up to 40%. Some of that was increased spending (the first bailout thingie), but mostly it was due to economic contraction. In just his first year in office, with a Democrat controlled congress (the first time since the first two years of Clinton's administration when we also saw big jumps in this figure), Obama has managed to leap to a whopping 53% of GDP.


We could attribute that to economic contraction, and certainly some of it is. However, while revenues dropped about 400B from said contraction, spending (in dollars) increased 600B in 2009. Compared to a higher than normal, but still reasonable 250B increase in 2008 (a "normal" dollar increase for the last decade has been about 150B each year). Even if we ignore the economic factors as they relate to the budget, the spending increases in the last year would still have put us significantly in the red, not just in dollars/year, but in actual debt/gdp.


That's a big problem. We can sit here and point fingers about the how and why of the economic woes, but it might be a good start for the Democrats to not spend so darn much money. That's certainly making things much much worse. We can weather an economic downturn. Heck. We are weathering it. But the long term fallout from the spending this administration is doing is going to be hurting us economically long long after the immediate economic problems are gone.

Edited, Feb 3rd 2010 7:42pm by gbaji
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#404 Feb 03 2010 at 9:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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Short version from Gbaji: Racking up massive deficits are okay and perfectly defensible when the GOP does it, but not when the Democrats do it.

No surprises there.
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#405 Feb 03 2010 at 10:14 PM Rating: Good
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Gbaji wrote:

That's a big problem. We can sit here and point fingers about the how and why of the economic woes, but it might be a good start for the Democrats to not spend so darn much money. That's certainly making things much much worse. We can weather an economic downturn. Heck. We are weathering it. But the long term fallout from the spending this administration is doing is going to be hurting us economically long long after the immediate economic problems are gone.


You seem to be confusing the short term goal of avoiding an all out depression by financing certain areas that need to be stable with the mid to long term return to fiscal responsibility.

The piles of money being spent are going to fix mistakes that needed to be corrected. After they are fixed and there is reason to believe that the market will be fine on its own again (as opposed to the economy beforehand - which ran its course and ended up in the ground)- then, and only then, can you start to weather the storm back into the black side of things.

Think of it this way - the economy was like a run down car when it was handed over. You want the American public to try pushing instead of having it fixed.


Edited, Feb 3rd 2010 9:23pm by Tarub
#406 Feb 03 2010 at 10:18 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Short version from Gbaji: Racking up massive deficits are okay and perfectly defensible when the GOP does it, but not when the Democrats do it.


Lol. Nice use of inappropriate superlatives there Joph.

How about: Running modest deficits while gdp growth is sufficient to allow for stable debt/gdp ratio is a perfectly defensible economic strategy, especially if you are operating on an economic theory that says that lowering taxes will spur economic growth and most of that deficit is generated by lowering taxes.


It is *not* defensible to run deficits 3+ times higher than any produced in the previous decade (well, "ever"), while gdp growth is dropping, resulting in a significant jump in debt/gdp ratio. Doubly so when 5/7ths of that deficit is generated by spending increases without even a theory or suggestion as to how this might increase economic growth and allow the debt to settle.

Bush's economic policy was sustainable long term. Obama's is clearly not. Obama's policy seems pretty much to consist of "spend while the spendings good!". And we'll be paying for this spending for a very long time...

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No surprises there.


That you'd horribly miss-characterize the entire issue? Yeah. No surprise at all!

Edited, Feb 3rd 2010 8:18pm by gbaji
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#407 Feb 03 2010 at 10:28 PM Rating: Default
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Tarub wrote:
You seem to be confusing the short term goal of avoiding an all out depression by financing certain areas that need to be stable with the mid to long term return to fiscal responsibility.


How on earth can you return to "fiscal responsibility" by massively increasing spending? I get a short term spending increase to help get through an economic downturn. But no one should pretend that this is responsible economic policy, nor should this sort of thing *ever* be applied to mid or long term strategy. That's the sort of moronic thinking that caused a whole series of recessions back in the 70s. Every time the government acts to "fix" a problem, it creates two more.

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The piles of money being spent are going to fix mistakes that needed to be corrected.


Oh Please! The piles of money are being spent on pet social programs that the far left has been waiting 40 years to have sufficient control of both houses of congress and the presidency in order to enact. The need to "solve" the current economic problems is a pretext.

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After they are fixed and there is reason to believe that the market will be fine on its own again (as opposed to the economy beforehand - which ran its course and ended up in the ground)- then, and only then, can you start to weather the storm back into the black side of things.


Lol. Do you actually believe there will ever be a point at which the Left will think that things are "fixed enough" to let the market go on by itself? Really? That's incredibly naive...


And nothing in Bush's economic policy caused the current problems. Certainly, nothing about his budgets, programmatic spending, tax rates, or anything else relevant to the topic of deficits had anything to do with it. The closest you can come to blaming Bush is that he didn't fight hard enough to prevent it.


Let's not mix issues here. The economic problems occurred because of lending practices in the housing market, and investment practices revolving around those loans. That's not even remotely related to deficit spending and budgeting decisions. Or are you seriously arguing that since Bush allowed said housing market and investments to cause an economic downturn, that this somehow means it's just peachy for Obama to cause more economic downturn by spending the country into the poorhouse? Cause that's sorta like saying that since your wife crashed her car, it's ok for you to burn down the house...
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#408 Feb 03 2010 at 10:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Lol. Nice use of inappropriate superlatives there Joph.

No, it was entirely accurate.

Funny thing: Bush's massive deficit spending was "sound fiscal policy" because it matched a certain percentage of the GDP. Yet, Obama's deficit spending, if not for Bush's massive spending with absolutely no plan to pay for it, would put us right in that same range if not lower. So essentially, Bush and the GOP ran up the credit cards and skipped out on the bills (and that was sound policy!) but when Obama needs to use one of them, it's "Oh noes! He's over the credit limit! Bad Democrats! Bad! How dare they spend like that! Have they no sense of fiscal policy at all?!"

Even better, when the Democrats try to re-enact PAYGO rules (which the GOP gutted because they couldn't rape the deficit if there were laws actually preventing that sort of thing), Republicans whine and ***** about it and try, to a man, to block it. Because being expected to cover your fiscal *** is suddenly a bad thing.

Smiley: laugh Ah, you guys are so predictable. It'd be funny if you hadn't left us all in a giant hole due to your inability to read a budget sheet and spent like drunken teenagers with no interest what so ever in covering your binges.

Edited, Feb 3rd 2010 10:57pm by Jophiel
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#409 Feb 03 2010 at 10:50 PM Rating: Good
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Gbaji wrote:

Lol. Do you actually believe there will ever be a point at which the Left will think that things are "fixed enough" to let the market go on by itself? Really? That's incredibly naive...


The government (both sides - but man you hate the left) will monitor and regulate certain things in the economy regardless, but I'm saying they are putting investment in the places so they don't have to throw the big money (the kind that involves overhauling entire areas of the economy) at other (or still) failing locations later on. After the economy is heading in a positive direction, then cut back spending and monitor/regulate the course.
The storm you are trying to weather is a massive flood, and your "plan" involves everyone staying down in the basement and waiting/drowning instead of spending time/resources getting higher grounds or finding something that floats.




Edited, Feb 3rd 2010 10:04pm by Tarub
#410 Feb 04 2010 at 12:37 AM Rating: Decent
How about: Taking in more than you spend.

Any ******* child can answer Sesame Street math except for the GOP, which insist that lower taxes mean good for all. Except of course, the ******* budget. If ANYONE ran their household they way the Bush's did, they wouldn't have that house for long. You can spout any graph, number or ******** statistic you want Gbaji but that's a simple truth.

We have to get taxes up and spending down.
#411 Feb 04 2010 at 12:41 AM Rating: Good
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Kaelesh wrote:
You can spout any graph, number or bullsh*t statistic you want Gbaji


Oh god, don't tempt him.
#412REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 9:28 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophed,
#413REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 9:33 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Kael,
#414 Feb 04 2010 at 9:44 AM Rating: Decent
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I don't understand how the Republicans managed to align themselves with the term fiscal responsibility. Whether you believe the economic goals of the party to be beneficial or not, they're definitely not fiscally conservative. The GOP criticizes Democrats for spending beyond their means, but on the flipside the Republicans are unwilling to earn enough to cover their costs.

If Republicans were fiscal conservatives then they're be pushing to cut government spending programs before attempting to cut the taxes that pay for those programs.
#415REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 9:56 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Allegory,
#416 Feb 04 2010 at 9:57 AM Rating: Excellent
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publiusvarus wrote:
If I were a Democrat I certainly wouldn't want to draw any more attention to Obama's mad spending spree, with a promise of more to come, than I absolutely had to.

You're not though and I am so I'm perfectly happy to continue discussing the deficit and where it came from. Why are you so afraid to talk about it that you need to keep trying desperately to change the subject?

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Blaming the GOP

I'm just stating fact: Bush and the GOP pissed all over the notion that you pay for things when you buy them and instead ran up giant deficits with their fiscal irresponsibility. If you have evidence to say this isn't true, you must be saving it for some other day. You guys can cry and whine about how "Oh, but it doesn't count because it was tax cuts!" or "Oh, it only counts if it's THIS percentage!" but, at the end of the day, the simple fact is this: Bush and the GOP gutted legislation requiring them to keep a balanced budget so they could pass their pet projects and agendas without being honest to the American people what it'd cost them down the line. As a result -- as a direct result -- Bush and the GOP drove the nation deeper into a debt it didn't need to be in.

I'm not even talking in vague terms of "the economy" here. I believe, and I've said before, that much of the economy is out of the hands of the president or Congress. They can affect it but they don't drive it. What is 100% in the hands of the president and Congress is the budget and deciding whether you'll have one that's balanced or one that borrows giant piles of cash from the future so you can have your cake and eat it too -- so long as someone else is stuck with the bill long after you've left.

This isn't even arguable. It's just fact. Watching you guys fall all over yourselves trying to defend it is a hilarious display of hypocrisy. I know you'll never admit to it -- that's what blind partisan hypocrites do: rationalize and hand-wave away the truth because it doesn't fit your mindset. But it really is very funny.

Go ahead now and be sure you talk about anything besides the actual content of this post. You never disappoint Smiley: smile

Edited, Feb 4th 2010 10:06am by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#417 Feb 04 2010 at 9:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Allegory wrote:
If Republicans were fiscal conservatives then they're be pushing to cut government spending programs before attempting to cut the taxes that pay for those programs.

But that's politically unpopular.

The GOP way is to gut the budget protections, rape the spreadsheets and then wait a couple years for someone to go "Holy fuck!" and make the decisions they were too big a pussy to make when they were in charge.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#418REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 10:01 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Joph,
#419 Feb 04 2010 at 10:03 AM Rating: Good
publiusvarus wrote:
And while we're at let's create the largest social program in the history of the world.



If you're alludingto the healthcare bill, that's the largest hyperbole in the world.


Edited, Feb 4th 2010 10:10am by Belkira
#420 Feb 04 2010 at 10:03 AM Rating: Excellent
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Alluding.

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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

#421REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 10:03 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Joph,
#422REDACTED, Posted: Feb 04 2010 at 10:04 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Tulip,
#423 Feb 04 2010 at 10:08 AM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
Alluding.
This is your thing, now? Did we repeal the law that says we don't pick on typos/spelling? Who keeps track of these things?
#424 Feb 04 2010 at 10:08 AM Rating: Excellent
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publiusvarus wrote:
And by gut you mean cutting wasteful spending.
[...]
Again the obvious fix is to create the largest social program in the history of the world.

And yet they didn't. And they won't. They never will because the GOP is made of pussies who will, unarguably and with plenty of evidence, drive the nation deep into debt rather than make any unpopular choices.

"Cut taxes! Free money for everyone! No, don't ask how we can afford it... aren't you just happy that we cut taxes! Whatever you do, don't think of the future!..."
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#425 Feb 04 2010 at 10:10 AM Rating: Excellent
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The Glorious Atomicflea wrote:
Samira wrote:
Alluding.
This is your thing, now? Did we repeal the law that says we don't pick on typos/spelling? Who keeps track of these things?


I AM the law, missy.

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#426 Feb 04 2010 at 10:10 AM Rating: Good
Samira wrote:
Alluding.



Thanks, I had a brain fart. I even had that one in there first, and thought, "No, that's not the right one, you dork." Smiley: blush
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