Kavekk the Ludicrous wrote:
Afghan public opinion is overwhelmingly on the side of
NATO.
Possibly, but opinion polls in Afghanistan are notoriously unreliable.
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Now that Afghanistan is the center stage again, I think the Taliban's going to find it increasingly difficult to get help from the local population - if they're helping out of fear, then they will stop helping if the Taliban continues to be pushed back. A change of tactics (being less hasty to leave an area behind) would ensure this, although we might have to wait on more Afghan troops to be trained if congress won't approve additional US troops.
Yes, but the main problem is that any situation can change around extremely quickly. Afghan troops are turned extremely easily. There is no tradition of central government in Afghanistan, nor of a central army. The wages will be pittance and they can, and will, be turned by drugs money. I'm not saying its impossible to build a proper Afghan army, just that it will take much longer and cost much more than anyone is prepared to commit.
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Will NATO withdraw troops? Not any time soon, I think. Cameron made it clear he's for increasing troops in Afghanistan, and why would he renege on this when Labour has castrated itself and tossed its bleeding ***** into the heart of the sun? He's free to play age of empires all he wants. While congress will probably make anything more than the reallocation of troops impossible, I see no sign that Obama intends to withdraw troops either. The Canadians are withdrawing by 2011 but frankly, who cares? No one else seems about to crack - Germany's defence minister suggested they could be there for a decade or so.
Again, it can turn very quickly. Public opinion in the UK is tiring of the war, and a few more body bags could do the trick. Unless the goals are clear and attainable, and Cameron does a great PR job of selling it, it wont be long before start to clamour to brings the troops home. I don't believe for one second that Cameron will increase significantly the numer of troops in Afghanistan. The army is stretched, ressources are low, and the next 5 years will be tight: there wont be much money available for anyone.
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Pakistan is the really unpredictable element, though.
That's the crux, really. Pakistan is not only unwilling to take real action, it simply can't. Half of the Pakistan Secret Services support the Talibans. They created them. For Pakistan, Afghanistan is a sideshow compared to the real story, which is their relationship with India. Some within ISI still see the Talibans as useful allies against an emerging India. And the border is so porous that it would take a gigantic military operation to "clean-up" these areas. The death toll would be huge. The terrain is completely against us. It's more than an uphill struggle, its climbing a mountain barefeet.
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I guess we have different victory conditions, because achieving stability such as that in Iraq ( and having to keep a smallish garrison of 40-20,000 troops (decreasing over time) in Afghanistan for a decade after to maintain stability would be a victory in my mind.
In mine too. I just don't think we can do it. And even if we did, we would have low-intensity civil war for another decade. Which we will have regardless of whether we "win" or not, to be fair. Today, the Karzai government controls only Kabul. When Western news report talk about "Afghanistan", a lot of the time they really mean "Kabul". We can't hold anything outside of it without a high number of troops constantly present there.
We'll see. I can't see into the future. But I do think that drugs money + Pakistan + 8 years of presence there without any clear result = we're f
ucked. I think we might've had a chance, had we not gone into Iraq. But I think the best we can hope for now is that the Afghan government we leave in charge of the place will be rich enough to stay in power, and not quite as bad as the Taliban in terms of allowing AQ to operate from there. But still, its not much of a victory. AQ can and have relocated. The talibans will keep on fighting. Hopefully it'll remain at low intensity. I just can't sunmmon much optimism, simply because our strategy has been **** for 8 years, and history is pretty much against us. I do wish they'd sort it out though, I
really wanna go to Afghanistan. But not in the state it's currently in, obviously.
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Did you find Law to be interesting? Did you plan on being a solicitor/barrister when you took it? What do you do now? How many people do you know with ginger hair? How many brooms do you own?
I found some aspects of law interesting, and some mind-numbingly boring. Intresting was: Public international law, EU law, jurisprudence, medical/environmental law, all of that was a lot of fun. Boring was: tort law, contract law, business/financial law, and criminal law. Obviously, all of this is a matter of taste, but I found the intresting ones to require some reflection, and the boring ones to require mostly memory.
I only chose to study law because I had no idea what I wanted to do, and thought it was broad enough to let me do whatever I wanted to do later on. I also did a Masters in Public International Law, which I absolutely loved. I had a brilliant time, got a Distinction, and scored 76% on my dissertation. Moral of the story being: do something you enjoy.
Now I work for local government, as a sort of link between local government and the EU: I analyse EU legislation that's being prepared in certain areas (transport, health, migration & Asylum, and equalities), tell local government how it will affect them, hear their views on the subject, and then take it back to Brussles to do some lobbying, to try to get the views of local government incorporated in EU legislation. So, it's a mixture of analysis and lobbying, I really enjoy it. But before that, I worked for the Serious Fraud Office, and then worked for a think-tank.
If you're wondering what to study at Uni, then Law is a good bet if you're not sure waht you wanna do later on. 3 weeks in to my undergrad law degree, I knew I didn't want to be a sollicitor/barrister. But still, law is braod enough that it doesnt restrict you to those professions. But, I suppose, so is economics. I'd reccomend whichever of those you think you'll enjoy most.
I know 3 ginger people.
And own 2 brooms, though one of those is on its deathbed.
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...What are you wearing?
Suits every working day, unfortunately.