Obama keeps governing like he has the first 6 months the next 3 1/2 years unemployment will reach 15% nationally.
Because of the way the default U3 Unemployment is calculated, it's virtually impossible for it to reach 15% anytime soon. That aside, the job market will very likely continue to do poorly. It's a lagging economic indicator and even if the stimulus was working perfectly, which it obviously isn't, jobs would still lag a broader recovery.
What you're missing here is that this is being intentionally timed for political reasons. Most of the stimulus money will reach the economy right around the mid term elections, which may or may not have enough impact to allow the Democrats to hold the current majorities in congress. If I had to handicap it now I'd say the odds of the GOP picking up a few senate seats, probably between 2-5 are pretty good. A great deal of the coming 2010 elections depends on how much gets accomplished on health care, and how long the administration can delay the looming consumer credit crisis that no one has an answer for.
Polling now is virtually meaningless in terms of electoral outcomes 15 months from now. Ask President Giuliani.
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