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#77 Jun 23 2009 at 4:11 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
The larger point is that if you go look at predictions used by the IPCC back in the late 90s and early 2000s, they assumed that temperatures would continue to clime through the last decade and just keep on going with no sign of stoppage.
Should be a piece of cake to show us one of these predictions.


Did this last time Joph. You know. The chart with a starting point at 2000 with a dozen or so different lines showing various predictions gathered up by the IPCC. All of them showing temperatures going up steadily from that point in time.

You looked at the same graph I did and insisted that they didn't predict rising temperatures for the first 10 years. I can't help you if you look at a graph that is rising and insist that it isn't. It's like some strange form of blindness.


But heck. Here's an interesting page on the subject, which happens to also have the same chart you apparently couldn't read the last time.


Do you see any predicted trendlines going "below" the "0" value? No. I don't either. They're all obviously going up. Even in the first 10 years.

Oh. And the page is pretty informative as well.
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King Nobby wrote:
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#78 Jun 23 2009 at 5:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The chart with a starting point at 2000 with a dozen or so different lines showing various predictions gathered up by the IPCC. All of them showing temperatures going up steadily from that point in time.
You mean the one that showed various temperature changes, some positive and some negative?

So you mean this thread?

Ok, well, I'm done then. That thread already says anything there is to say about that and I thank you for making this go around so short.

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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#79 Jun 23 2009 at 6:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
The chart with a starting point at 2000 with a dozen or so different lines showing various predictions gathered up by the IPCC. All of them showing temperatures going up steadily from that point in time.
You mean the one that showed various temperature changes, some positive and some negative?


Yes Joph. They do go up and down. It's the trend that matters. And the trend can be pretty clearly seen on that graph, even just for the first 10 years.

It's pretty clear that the projections have not matched the actual temperature. Are you really arguing this still?

Quote:
Ok, well, I'm done then. That thread already says anything there is to say about that and I thank you for making this go around so short.


Yup. You were just as unwilling to see obvious facts in front of you in that thread.
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King Nobby wrote:
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#80 Jun 23 2009 at 7:05 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
It's pretty clear that the projections have not matched the actual temperature.


I don't understand. You're looking at a period of ten years on a graph that goes up to a hundred years. The graph has a variety of climate prediction data, and I'm pretty sure that if we were to look closer, the first ten years predict a slight cooling, the temperature staying constant, or a slight increase. It's essentially impossible to draw anything from them other than "Looks good! Maybe."

You can't draw conclusive evidence from inconclusive data. No one really knows for certain what is going on, and we probably won't for another ten years - we do know that it appears that the planet is gradually getting warmer and it is predicted to continue getting warmer. Whether or not it does, or how fast it does, isn't really important. As it stands, there is a potential problem, and any reasonably intelligent person recognizes that it's better to do something about it rather than ***** that it doesn't exist.

If "global warming" is an issue, we'd regret not doing anything. If it's not an issue, we're not exactly doing harm to anyone by being more environmentally conscious anyway.

gbaji wrote:
Are you really arguing this still?


I'd also like to know why the fuck you like to ask such pointless questions.

Edited, Jun 23rd 2009 11:05pm by CBD
#81 Jun 23 2009 at 7:57 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Yup. You were just as unwilling to see obvious facts in front of you in that thread.
Smiley: laugh
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#82 Jun 24 2009 at 6:50 AM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
Nothings "wrong" with it. They are quoting findings from the IPCC. It's not the findings that are "wrong", but the predictions and policy suggestions by the IPCC which are.

Yes, but several national academy of sciences of major nations say they directly support the findings of the IPCC and recognize the IPCC as the primary authority of natters related to climate change. The US National Academy of science stated that the IPCC's conclusion accurately reflects the thinking of the scientific community. These aren't fringe or political think tank groups. These are the National Academy of Sciences of several nations.

The world scientific community supports the findings of the IPCC and all the research they publish. You do see that there is undoubtedly a consensus here don't you? You can think they're wrong, but you do acknowledge they agree with each other?

"Yes, there is international consensus in the scientific community that ACC is occurring, but I believe the majority of the scientific community is wrong." This is what I'm looking to read from you.
#83 Jun 24 2009 at 7:56 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
As to those asking for a source of my earlier statement about temperatures, how's this?
I didn't bother with it last night but this has to be one of the single stupidest blog entries I've seen on this topic in a long, long time. It contains nearly every flaw in the counter argument ******* against the ACC theory.
Blog wrote:
Top UN scientists have been forced to admit that natural weather occurrences are having a far greater effect on climate change than CO2 emissions as a continued cooling trend means there has been no global warming since 1998.
Opponents of the ACC theory love, love love to use 1998 as their starting point because it was a clear outlier in the data and makes anything after it look artifically lower. They also love to point to any wavering of a straight upwards shot as proof! that ACC is flawed despite a glance at the temperate charts showing downward trends which soon reverse themselves. In short, they take "4 steps forwards, 1 step back" and call it walking backwards.

Blog wrote:
But despite overwhelming signs of global cooling - China's coldest winter for 100 years and record snow levels across Northeast America - allied with temperature records showing a decline - global warming advocates still cling to the notion that the world is cooling because of global warming!
Three things here (this guy really packs the errors in):
(1) The willful ignoring that ACC is a global thing and so pointing to select regions as a rebuttal is pretty stupid.
(2) Somewhat amusingly, the author points to China's winter as proof that ACC must be false. In fact, China's average 2008 temperature (and that of northern Asia as a whole) was warmer than the 1998-2007 mean. He picked the worst possible example to disprove ACC.
(3) Calling anthropogenic climate change "global warming". It's less of a mouthful and easier to type but paints an inaccurate picture of what climatologists are talking about. However, the author needs this false definition because then he can say "LOL They're Trying To Explain Cold With GLOBAL WARMING!!!"

Blog wrote:
According to man-made global warming advocates, CO2 emissions are the main driver of climate change and natural weather patterns caused by sun activity and other native contributors play second fiddle.
Wait a second... according to who? I can't answer for every hippie and Prius owner but I've never seen a legitimate study make the claim that natural events play "second fiddle". The argument is that CO2 is acting as a force multiplier to natural events -- enhancing the effects of warming events and diminishing (though not eliminating) the effects of cooling events resulting in an accelerated warming trend in the long term.

Blog wrote:
Global temperatures have remained reasonably flat since a decline in 1998 and cooling trends are now being observed despite the fact that carbon dioxide levels have increased in the atmosphere
Again, why start with 1998? Because it was unusally warm, even by the trend standards and makes a handy point to make everything else appear low by comparison. Why not start at 1990? 1980? 1995? Because then you get a much more accurate trend than the author wants you to believe.

Blog wrote:
Following the accelerated industrialization period of 1940-1970, when carbon emissions reached a crescendo, global temperatures plummeted, prompting an international fearmongering campaign about the deadly consequences of global cooling.

So-called experts were lavished with media platforms to tell us that all animal life in the sea would be extinct by 1979 and England would be underwater by the year 2000, amidst a myriad of other outlandish proclamations.
I discussed "global cooling" upthread. Whenever I hear someone fall back on it, I wonder is they're intentionally disingenuous or just really, really ignorant of how little one relates to the other.

And then it ends with a shot at Al Gore. Because, you know, Al Gore is the one publishing the studies and running the research which lends evidence to ACC.

A fine pick, Gbaji. You should be proud.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#84 Jun 24 2009 at 4:30 PM Rating: Decent
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CBD wrote:
gbaji wrote:
It's pretty clear that the projections have not matched the actual temperature.


I don't understand. You're looking at a period of ten years on a graph that goes up to a hundred years. The graph has a variety of climate prediction data, and I'm pretty sure that if we were to look closer, the first ten years predict a slight cooling, the temperature staying constant, or a slight increase.


The big black line on the graph represents an "average" of all of the projections. Can you honestly say that it's not moving up as it moves to the right? It's pretty clearly doing so even just in the first 10 year section of the graph.

You don't get to pick and choose a single projection after the fact. We are presuming that the IPCC's recommendations are based on some preponderance of evidence and prediction, not an exception, right? If they were basing their predictions of massive flooding and global ecological disaster on any exception, it would presumably have been the higher temperature projections, not the lower ones. Attempting to argue after the fact that "Oh. We were using that projection" is more than a little deceitful.


Quote:
You can't draw conclusive evidence from inconclusive data. No one really knows for certain what is going on, and we probably won't for another ten years


That's exactly the point! The IPCC claims to know exactly what is going to happen. Their predictions are based on a "worst case" results of the "worst case" temperature projections. And guess what? We're not seeing the pattern their "worst case" projections assumed.

It's the IPCC running around like Chicken Little insisting that the sky is falling. I think it's kinda relevant to point out that it's not...


Edited, Jun 24th 2009 5:31pm by gbaji
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King Nobby wrote:
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#85 Jun 25 2009 at 1:37 AM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
As to those asking for a source of my earlier statement about temperatures, how's this?

How is the "Recovery from Little Ice Age" explained?

And more importantly, what do they base their predictions for the drop in temperature towards 2030 on?
#86 Jun 25 2009 at 11:56 AM Rating: Decent
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Professor Turicus wrote:
gbaji wrote:
As to those asking for a source of my earlier statement about temperatures, how's this?

How is the "Recovery from Little Ice Age" explained?


Does it need to be? How is the Big Ice Age explained? How are the warmer temperatures since then explained? You're seeking some concrete explanation for something that just happens. How do you explain that it rained last week and didn't this week? You can look at the details, but trying to explain "why" those details occurred is a whole lot harder.

Quote:
And more importantly, what do they base their predictions for the drop in temperature towards 2030 on?


I believe those projections are based on an assumption that increased solar radiation over most of the 20th century is responsible for much of the high temperatures during that time period and that as said radiation decreases, temperatures will drop to a more "normal" level. Um... That's as much conjecture as anything else of course.

The difference is that they aren't demanding that we spend trillions of dollars and force everyone to change their lives as a result of their predictions. I happen to think that's a pretty significant difference...
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King Nobby wrote:
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#87 Jun 25 2009 at 4:09 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
The big black line on the graph represents an "average" of all of the projections. Can you honestly say that it's not moving up as it moves to the right? It's pretty clearly doing so even just in the first 10 year section of the graph.


Ok, cool. So the majority of the predictions were slightly too high this first ten years. That's not proof of anything.

gbaji wrote:
Attempting to argue after the fact that "Oh. We were using that projection" is more than a little deceitful.


I guess it's great that no one said that then.


gbaji wrote:
The IPCC claims to know exactly what is going to happen.


Wrong.

gbaji wrote:
Their predictions are based on a "worst case" results of the "worst case" temperature projections.


I suppose we should always plan on the best case scenario. "Oh, there's a bomb in that building? Well there may be no one in there, so let's not worry about it."

gbaji wrote:
And guess what? We're not seeing the pattern their "worst case" projections assumed.


Wrong. We're not seeing patterns period. You're trying to look at ten years of data and make a point about ninety more years. Guess what? You can't.

gbaji wrote:
It's the IPCC running around like Chicken Little insisting that the sky is falling. I think it's kinda relevant to point out that it's not...


You have no clue if it's falling or not. You also have no clue what the difference is between "DOOM IS IMMINENT" and "Guys, we may have a serious problem if we don't do something fast." I think you may just have issues facing reality.

CBD wrote:
No one really knows for certain what is going on, and we probably won't for another ten years - we do know that it appears that the planet is gradually getting warmer and it is predicted to continue getting warmer. Whether or not it does, or how fast it does, isn't really important. As it stands, there is a potential problem, and any reasonably intelligent person recognizes that it's better to do something about it rather than ***** that it doesn't exist.

If "global warming" is an issue, we'd regret not doing anything. If it's not an issue, we're not exactly doing harm to anyone by being more environmentally conscious anyway.





Edited, Jun 25th 2009 8:11pm by CBD
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