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#52 Jun 18 2009 at 11:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The reality is that over the last 5-6 years, global temperatures have been cooling, not warming.

Source?

My quick research seems to indicate there has been no significant variance in temperature over the last few years. But that means no measurable change has taken place. Neither up nor down, which you claim.

Over the long term (as in millions of years) there were apparently periods of higher CO2 concentration than we have now. So it may actually be a natural fluctuation. On the other hand, there never was so much burning of fossil fuels, industrialisation and all. And there is correlation between CO2, temperature and human emissions. I agree that it does not necessarily mean (full) causality.
The thing is, previously there were no humans that could have been negatively affected by CO2 or temperature fluctuations. Now there are. Ask the people living close to the sea etc.

On top of that, burning all the fossil fuels and other pollution we cause does not only have an effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations (and just maybe on global temperature with all its consequences). Fossil fuels are not renewable. We need another source of energy in the mid to long term.
Particulate matter concentrations in cities with little emission control lead to respiratory diseases.
There are economic dependencies and political pressures associated with fossil fuels (ask any Iraqi).
So there are a lot of arguments against burning fossil fuels other than CO2 emission. Just saying "Humans have nothing to do with atmospheric CO2 or global warming, let's keep doing what we do." won't exactly help that cause.

Edited, Jun 20th 2009 11:42am by Turicus
#53 Jun 18 2009 at 11:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Karelyn wrote:
Not to mention, "lol Global Warming" really makes a lot of people apathetic to actual environmental problems. Well... more apathetic than they already were.

I do suppose all that caring about global ecosystems does get in the way of cleaning up trash at local parks?
#54 Jun 19 2009 at 2:35 AM Rating: Default
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gbaji wrote:
Oh no! I lost my tinfoil hat!
#55 Jun 19 2009 at 4:41 AM Rating: Excellent
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Allegory wrote:
I do suppose all that caring about global ecosystems does get in the way of cleaning up trash at local parks?

It's easier to get John Doe to get a damn about the trash in town which is making the place look ugly, than it is to get him to care about a scientific theory that is still primarily based on weak correlation.

Professor Turicus wrote:
My quick research seems to indicate there has been no significant variance in temperature over the last few years. But that means no measurable change has taken place. Neither up nor down, which you claim.

I seem to recall this winter, that many portions of the world were hitting the lowest temperatures ever recorded. Of course, that is entirely irrelevant, and is not mutually exclusive with global warming. /shrug

Other than that, I agree with the rest of your post.

Which goes back to what I was saying. It's easier to get John Doe to care about alternative fuel sources because gasoline is pinching his wallet (Or because he doesn't want to give money to "lol Terrorists"), than it is to get him to care about it due to carbon emissions.

Edited, Jun 19th 2009 8:44am by Karelyn
#56 Jun 19 2009 at 6:58 AM Rating: Excellent
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This whole global warming debate is ridiculous. There's no reason to debate it.

Go stand in a major city on a hot day. Now go stand in a rural area on a hot day. You smell that? That's what the air should smell like. That's what we need to fix. Whether it's because the World is melting or simply because we need that air to, you know, breath, it needs to be fixed.
#57 Jun 19 2009 at 8:30 AM Rating: Good
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Yodabunny wrote:
This whole global warming debate is ridiculous. There's no reason to debate it.

Go stand in a major city on a hot day. Now go stand in a rural area on a hot day. You smell that? That's what the air should smell like.

Cow manure?

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#58 Jun 19 2009 at 9:09 AM Rating: Decent
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Debalic wrote:
Cow manure?


Ok, maybe go a little more rural, like in the sticks rural.
#59 Jun 19 2009 at 10:39 AM Rating: Decent
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Karelyn wrote:
I don't understand why you think the two are mutually dependant.


I don't understand why anyone would think they're fully independent.
#60 Jun 20 2009 at 12:35 PM Rating: Decent
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Professor Turicus wrote:
gbaji wrote:
The reality is that over the last 5-6 years, global temperatures have been cooling, not warming.

Source?

My quick research seems to indicate there has been no significant variance in temperature over the last few years. But that means no measurable change has taken place. Neither up nor down, which you claim.


I can't say I have an accurate source, but Gbaji is right. Only his timings a little off, it's closer to 8-9 years that we've been cooling.

"Man made global warming" is a hoax. 70s, Global Cooling. We'd only been industrializing for what, 200 years? Glad we managed to turn the tide. Our temperature is based entirely on the sun. We go in cycles, usually about 11 or 14 years. Cooling, warming.

They're basing everything on short term data. Saying we're about to enter into the next ice age because there was a cooling trend for the past X years? We like to call that alarmist.
#61 Jun 20 2009 at 1:14 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I can't say I have an accurate source


Then your opinion means less than dirt. I'm sorry.
#62 Jun 20 2009 at 2:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Pensive wrote:
Quote:
I can't say I have an accurate source


Then your opinion means less than dirt. I'm sorry.


When I say that, I just mean I don't know of anywhere online to authenticate it.
#63 Jun 20 2009 at 2:56 PM Rating: Good
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Oh I understand. You've probably seen plenty of stuff to support your claims. You might be totally right. It's just not possible to consider that as good evidence for whether or not someone should believe you.

You know there's also a huge difference between being skeptical and rejecting the hypothesis by claiming that you're skeptical. I'm not talking to you in particular either. It irks me when someone says that they actively think that global warming is a farce and claims that they are being skeptical. It's worse when someone cites an actual skeptic as a reason to disbelieve in the hypothesis...

This doesn't begin to consider the simply practical arguments for taking care of our planet by reducing pollution and increasing green space, global warming or not.
#64 Jun 20 2009 at 3:06 PM Rating: Decent
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manicshock wrote:
I can't say I have an accurate source, but Gbaji is right.

If I had premium I'd search for the post where gbaji made this comment before. I'd then search for the post where Jophiel cited sources that proved this was true. I'd then search for the post where Jophiel showed that the cooling was predicted by the majority of anthropogenic climate change models. But of course, I don't have premium.

This is why global warming is such a terrible term that the media should really stop using.

Edited, Jun 21st 2009 9:18pm by Allegory
#65 Jun 20 2009 at 11:29 PM Rating: Good
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Allegory wrote:
This is why global warming is such a terrible term that the media should really stop using.

"Anthropogenic Climate Change!" It's catchy!



Edited, Jun 21st 2009 2:30am by trickybeck
#66 Jun 21 2009 at 6:25 PM Rating: Decent
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trickybeck wrote:
"Anthropogenic Climate Change!" It's catchy!

A few extra papers sold while engendering epidemic misinformation. It sounds like a naive statement, but I think most journalists take some sort of pride in the work they do.

I'm sure it'd be a simple matter to tone an article in such a way that readers believe they're so much more informed than everyone else for using the term ACC. Pandering to egos has to be good business.
#67 Jun 22 2009 at 4:59 AM Rating: Excellent
Karelyn wrote:
It'd just be nice to not waste time, effort, and ridiculous amounts of tax dollars on Global Warming if it isn't a reality, instead of focusing on things we actually have control over. Like recycling or whatever have you.


Most of the measures designed to fight "Global Warming" are positive for the planet regardless of whether ACC is a reality.

What pisses me off in this debate is that most people are talking as though they have an understanding of what's going on. Let's all be honest for one moment: We don't. We're not climate scientist. Most of us have never read an IPCC report, nor will we understand the computer models. We can parrot what we heard from this or that scientist or website, but that's about it. If the most qualified scientists on the planet struggle to make accurate predictions and data anlysis, then I can't be anything but amused when I read gbaji screaming from the rooftops that Global warming is a "hoax". If it was simple enough for gbaji to understand, no one would be wasting time debating the subject.

I'm not ashamed to admit that I don't know enough about climate and science to have an informed opinion on the subject. I tend to trust the majority of claimte scientists and the IPCC. I don't buy the conspiracy claim for one second, but I don't know *for sure* the extent to which ACC will affect us.

But I think it's pretty irrelevant. "Global Warming" has managed to turn environmentalism from a fringe lunatic issue to a mainstream. I remember the 80s, and back then, people who harped on about protecting the planet and modufying our way of life were seen as unwashed stoned hippies who'd had too many acid trips. Today, most of the people care about the environment. If nothing else, Global Warming can claim that success, and it's a huge ************* success.

You complain that energy wasted on GB would be better placed on recycling, but the only reason why we put emphasis on recylcing is because of GB. If it wasn't for GB, the issue of the environment would be roughly on par with preserving the natural habitat of the lemur in terms of political importance. paulsol often talks about the damage that eating meat causes to the planet, well he can thank GB for making this such a topical issue today. The list is bloody endless, but even GB turns out to be fake, we will have done a hell of a lot of good to our planet in the meantime.

I support finding less polluting forms of energy, protecting wildlife, decreasing harmful emissions, recycling and preserving energy, eating more local produce and in-season vegetables, making transport more "green", having a carbon tax, preserving the rainforests, planting trees, not polluting the sea, all these things are beneficial and necessary regardless of whether GB is as dire as some people predict.

It's Pascal's Wager when it comes to changing behaviour which is harmful to the environment. We won't lose anything by doing it, and could potentially gain a lot, and we risk a hell of a lot by not doing it.
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#68 Jun 22 2009 at 5:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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manicshock wrote:
70s, Global Cooling.
Never widely accepted in the least. The 1970's "Global Cooling" bit was based primarily off of a single poorly researched Newsweek article and a misquoted National Geographic article. Comparing it to a phenomenon which has been widely researched across the globe, generated hundreds if not thousands of scientific studies and which is accepted by every major scientific body on the planet is a bit naive.
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#69 Jun 23 2009 at 5:06 AM Rating: Default
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generated hundreds if not thousands of scientific studies and which is accepted by every major scientific body on the planet is a bit naive


Every ? LOL

The "Debate" on Global Warming (or Climate Change) has actually re-opened the debate on whether "Consensus of Opinion" is Oxymoronic,redundant, or just plain inappropriate in a scientific context.

I practice green technology where I can, and have done more than most that I know to lower my toxic output.

But I still cant abide Eco-fascism, especially from hypocrites, like Al Gore and many of the "Celebrity Elite" activists.

Carbon offsets are a prime example of the myopic view of these folks... I mean apply the same reasoning to other social problems & see how it works.

A Rich Murderer can "Buy" a non-murder from someone....a rapist can "Buy" consent that offsets his crime.

A fraudulent,predatory lender can "Buy" his way out by paying money to a third party... sounds insane doesnt it ?

It has gotten bad, & I think a lot of people who resist the "Green Movement" do it for these reasons, not because they dont care or disagree with a clean Environment.

Especially harmful is when these folks want to impose their view on others who are just trying to survive.

I get scowled at for driving a Tahoe, but some asshat who flies in a private jet wants me to drive a Prius....not gonna happen.

& yes, a lot of people signed on to the "New Ice Age" in the 70's not to mention the "Population Bomb" that never went off & "Future Shock"

By the way, a lot of these same folks & institutuions signed on to Hitlers Eugenics too....

#70 Jun 23 2009 at 6:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Every ? LOL
Easily falsifible. Name me a major scientific research organization which has issued a position against ACC.

Or, you know, you can just try to dodge it by typing "LOL". I've heard sometimes that works.
Quote:
The "Debate" on Global Warming (or Climate Change) has actually re-opened the debate on whether "Consensus of Opinion" is Oxymoronic,redundant, or just plain inappropriate in a scientific context.
Well, I suppose it has among those who are trying hard to make the case against the notion of ACC by discrediting the research of the other side.
Quote:
& yes, a lot of people signed on to the "New Ice Age" in the 70's
Really? Who? The NOAA? NASA? Make your argument by naming names, not by saying "Yeah, well, a lot of people thought so". Don't you think the identity of these people is relevant if we're to compare them to the body of researchers supporting the theory of ACC today?

Here's a history of the global cooling myth from a scientific standpoint, rather than the popular press. Trying to compare it to the research surrounding ACC is a joke.
Quote:
By the way, a lot of these same folks & institutuions signed on to Hitlers Eugenics too....
Setting aside the Godwin's here, are you actually arguing that a lot of climatologists signed on to eugenics in the 30's & 40's? Or is this some revision of the lame "Yeah, but they arrested Galileo!" argument?
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#71 Jun 23 2009 at 6:17 AM Rating: Decent
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Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Every ? LOL

Yes.

There is a scientific consensus. You can choose to believe that the vast majority of agreeing experts in the field of climatology are wrong--that somehow you know more than they do--but you can not assert that there is no consensus.

Edited, Jun 23rd 2009 9:19am by Allegory
#72 Jun 23 2009 at 6:56 AM Rating: Decent
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Alright, I'm bored. Would Gbaji, Varus, or anyone else care to tell me what is wrong with the UK academy of science as well as the US national academy of sciences apparently.
#73 Jun 23 2009 at 7:03 AM Rating: Good
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RedPhoenixxx wrote:

What pisses me off in this debate is that most people are talking as though they have an understanding of what's going on. Let's all be honest for one moment: We don't. We're not climate scientist. Most of us have never read an IPCC report, nor will we understand the computer models. We can parrot what we heard from this or that scientist or website, but that's about it. If the most qualified scientists on the planet struggle to make accurate predictions and data anlysis, then I can't be anything but amused when I read gbaji screaming from the rooftops that Global warming is a "hoax". If it was simple enough for gbaji to understand, no one would be wasting time debating the subject.

I'm not ashamed to admit that I don't know enough about climate and science to have an informed opinion on the subject. I tend to trust the majority of claimte scientists and the IPCC. I don't buy the conspiracy claim for one second, but I don't know *for sure* the extent to which ACC will affect us.
There are lots of thingies at work in all the various layers of our atmosphere. However, there are also some very straight forward scientific principles that can't be denied.

1. Stuff doesn't disappear. The oil is not in the ground, nor is it any longer in my gas tank. Where is it? Yes, it's true that burning a gallon of gas will yield nearly 20lbs of CO2

2. We've changed our earth system - we, human beings. to what extent is of course arguable. Bison were changing our local system before we arrived in the new land by converting grass to methane - to what effect? Who knows.. It's all a question of how much is too much?

4. The Greenhouse Effect - it's a proven scientific principle. Of course there are lots of confounding factors when attempting to apply it on a planetary scale, how much CO2 is being absorbed by the planet (sinks)? What is the impact of other gases and particulates? If the oceans are absorbing a greatly-gob of this CO2 how is that effecting the oceans? does that affect on the ocean play any part in weather patterns (our weather is driven mostly by the oceans and our orbit with respect to the sun and the moon) and therefore, indirectly, climate change?

5. We're burning about 3.5 billion gallons of oil a day (worldwide). And this is only oil - not inclusive of coal or natural gas. Again, where is it? There is no question that we are impacting our atmosphere. How much and in what direction are we affecting the atmosphere, the weather cycles, the oceans, the humidity, the climate is the question?

There will always be gbajiers making the claim that there is no proof that climate change is, at all, due to human activity, as we don't have climate data going back 4.6 billion years (~the age of the oldest dated rocks). Therefore they will never be convinced.

But the evidence is rolling in all over the place that climate change IS happening. What's disturbing is predications are trending towards worse-case.

I don't know if cap and trade is the answer, but equating it to criminal behavior and our justice system is silliness. If emission free air is a quantifiable resource then it has a value that can be converted to currency. Theoretically the barter system should work. What's questionable is how much and how soon it will actually reduce emissions and how exploitable the system will be by industry.

Personally I think a straight-forward tax on the use of fossil fuels would work more efficiently and fairly but would be far less palatable to the masses.
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#74 Jun 23 2009 at 3:15 PM Rating: Decent
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Allegory wrote:
Alright, I'm bored. Would Gbaji, Varus, or anyone else care to tell me what is wrong with the UK academy of science as well as the US national academy of sciences apparently.


Nothings "wrong" with it. They are quoting findings from the IPCC. It's not the findings that are "wrong", but the predictions and policy suggestions by the IPCC which are.

As to those asking for a source of my earlier statement about temperatures, how's this?

It's just one article. There are hundreds of them, all repeating the same thing, and using the same data. Global temperatures dropped dramatically between 1998 and 2002, then spiked up briefly, and have continued to stay the same or decline, depending on which reference point you use. Temperatures have absolutely declined since 1998, and have declined on average since 2003.

The larger point is that if you go look at predictions used by the IPCC back in the late 90s and early 2000s, they assumed that temperatures would continue to clime through the last decade and just keep on going with no sign of stoppage. Their initial estimates of the harm that would be caused were based on those projections. As time has gone by, it's become increasingly clear that they were wrong. Of course, they're scrambling to change their projections to make them match, even insisting that the current cooling trend is just part of the overall problem, but if they were wrong about what would happen between 1998 and 2008, it's pretty reasonable to expect that they are also wrong about what will happen between now and say 2025, or 2050, or 2100.


The political recommendations were based on those alarming predictions. The predictions are almost certainly incorrect. Thus, it's perfectly reasonable to seriously question the need and value of following through with recommendations like cap and trade, and pushing forward with expensive proposals to reduce carbon emissions. The evidence is mounting that the assumed causative relationship between CO2 and global temperature is incorrect. While there certainly may be a relationship there, it's not as direct as assumed, and the models they were using to predict the effects are wrong.


Let's face facts. The most significant force continuing the global warming movement is the sheer desire for all the politicians and scientists involved to not admit that they were wrong. They're looking for an exit strategy right now. In another 10 years, we'll all be laughing about how foolish they were.
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#75 Jun 23 2009 at 3:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The larger point is that if you go look at predictions used by the IPCC back in the late 90s and early 2000s, they assumed that temperatures would continue to clime through the last decade and just keep on going with no sign of stoppage.
Should be a piece of cake to show us one of these predictions.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#76 Jun 23 2009 at 3:28 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
They're looking for an exit strategy right now. In another 10 years, we'll all be laughing about how foolish they were.
Smiley: lol An exit strategy? Gees, how is it you keep making these claims that have absolutely no basis in reality?
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