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Cali Leading the Fight?Follow

#52 Jun 09 2009 at 5:24 AM Rating: Good
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publiusvarus wrote:
Terrifying,

Quote:
Cali may in fact be leading the charge, involuntarily, due to being forced to confront their liberal policies. We have been so wealthy, for so long, not sure its possible without significant pain.

Illegal immigration is a huge part of it, but so is the massive entitlement structure, Union influence on GOVT jobs etc. (at the local county govt., you pay dues even if you dont join union, pretty sweet huh ?)

Bottom line, the gravy train has de-railed.

Before ya blast me, know 3 things : I live in Calif- I own my home- I have been in Business and worked with GOVT for years.


Great post...


Note: this post is called "great" not because of any specific content, incredible insights, or groundshattered news. It is great solely because it agrees with the views of Varrus.

I'd be scared, personally.
#53 Jun 09 2009 at 5:27 AM Rating: Default
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LockeColeMA wrote:
publiusvarus wrote:
Terrifying,

Quote:
Cali may in fact be leading the charge, involuntarily, due to being forced to confront their liberal policies. We have been so wealthy, for so long, not sure its possible without significant pain.

Illegal immigration is a huge part of it, but so is the massive entitlement structure, Union influence on GOVT jobs etc. (at the local county govt., you pay dues even if you dont join union, pretty sweet huh ?)

Bottom line, the gravy train has de-railed.

Before ya blast me, know 3 things : I live in Calif- I own my home- I have been in Business and worked with GOVT for years.


Great post...


Note: this post is called "great" not because of any specific content, incredible insights, or groundshattered news. It is great solely because it agrees with the views of Varrus.

I'd be scared, personally.


Also due to some selective quoting.
#54REDACTED, Posted: Jun 09 2009 at 5:54 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) You people just can't stand when someone you personally dislike is making sense.
#55 Jun 09 2009 at 5:58 AM Rating: Excellent
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Samira wrote:
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It's more correctly identified as "agricultural" versus "non-agricultural" states Joph. Farm subsidies are what make the numbers appear the way they do.


Even if this were true, farm subsidies were originally intended to help out small family farms and are now overwhelmingly used to fatten agribusiness.
True that. The current subsidy plan is a GOP created behemoth originally intended to phase out old subsidies and instead has turned into a massive hand-out program dwarfing the system it was intended to fix.

That aside, some of the most productive farming states in crop yield manage to stay under the $1 mark because they've managed to support and maintain other industries as well. Other very productive states are right around a dime or less over the dollar mark (the national average is receiving $1.16 for every dollar sent which should immediately raise the "problem" flag). It strikes me as hilariously funny that Gbaji would tell a person on welfare to take stock, change direction and learn to make what they have work for them but, when it's Montana (or stranger still, Alabama) the answer is "It's agriculture! We have to keep them on welfare because all they have is agriculture!"
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#56 Jun 09 2009 at 6:01 AM Rating: Good
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publiusvarus wrote:
You people just can't stand when someone you personally dislike is making sense.


Nah, I like you Varrus. Your help make the Asylum the Asylum.

Doesn't mean I agree with much of what you say, but you're not DISliked. And no, you're still not making sense.
#57 Jun 09 2009 at 6:11 AM Rating: Default
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publiusvarus wrote:
You people just can't stand when someone you personally dislike is making sense.


I can't 'personally' dislike you, until I have met you in person, but you don't make sense at all.
#58REDACTED, Posted: Jun 09 2009 at 6:14 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophiel,
#59 Jun 09 2009 at 6:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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Do you understand that a lot of the farm subsidies go to people to NOT grow food? To, yes, artificially inflate the prices.

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#60 Jun 09 2009 at 6:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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publiusvarus wrote:
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"It's agriculture! We have to keep them on welfare because all they have is agriculture!"
So you think the US should be forced to rely on other countries for all the food we buy?
We're not. We're not even close. As I mentioned, the most agriculturally productive states in the nation are either states paying more to Washington than they receive or states at least staying below the average.

This is excluding the ridiculous notion that Alabama, Mississippi, S. Carolina, etc are in the red due to feeding the nation via "farm subsidies".
Quote:
And don't even get me started with Alaska. Then again you might enjoy having the entire oil industry based in the ME.
When a state's energy industry is sufficently profitable to send every man, woman, caribou & child in Land of the Midnight Sun a check for a thousand-odd bucks, that state has no place to be taking more federal money than it contributes, much less to be among the very worst offenders.

Edited, Jun 9th 2009 9:49am by Jophiel
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#61 Jun 09 2009 at 6:39 AM Rating: Excellent
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Also, it might be informative to know the ripple effect of some of those subsidies. Let's take cotton, for example, while we're on the subject of "conservative" southern states taking a ******** of Federal money.



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#62 Jun 09 2009 at 8:19 AM Rating: Decent
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Samira wrote:
Also, it might be informative to know the ripple effect of some of those subsidies. Let's take cotton, for example, while we're on the subject of "conservative" southern states taking a sh*tload of Federal money.

The REAL reason marijuana is illegal. Hemp was infringing on the cotton (and paper) monopolies. Regardless of the fact that you couldn't get high on it.
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#63 Jun 09 2009 at 8:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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Cecil Adams wrote:
Hemp wasn't a mighty industry in the U.S. prior to passage of the Marijuana Tax Act of 1937. Only about 1,300 acres of hemp--about two square miles--were under cultivation. It was cheaper to import the stuff than grow it.

Even so, total U.S. consumption was only about 2,000 tons, and most of that was used for rope and such. Textile manufacturers had long since abandoned hemp for cotton, which was easier to process. An improved hemp-processing technology had been invented, and the industry might have rebounded had it not been for the antihemp crusade. But nobody knows for certain.
[...]
The hemp industry didn't pose a significant threat to Du Pont and its new synthetic product, nylon. The most widely publicized early use of nylon was for women's stockings. Hemp wasn't used for this purpose.
[...]
To address your claims and some of the dozens of others that flooded my mailbox: Hemp is ideal for paper, cloth, and a thousand other products. Don't be ridiculous. Even hemp advocates concede the stuff has a lot of drawbacks. It makes a fairly coarse cloth (OK for jeans though) and, given current technology, doesn't lend itself to high-volume, low-cost paper production. (Granted, research in this area is continuing.) Many proposed uses are speculative or far-fetched.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#64 Jun 09 2009 at 8:29 AM Rating: Good
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The REAL reason marijuana is illegal. Hemp was infringing on the cotton (and paper) monopolies. Regardless of the fact that you couldn't get high on it.


You could probably get high on the chemical bath they use to make paper, or at least some brain damage as a consolation prize.
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#65 Jun 09 2009 at 8:34 AM Rating: Excellent
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Marijuana, and collaterally hemp, are illegal for one reason: rampant, paranoid racism.

Jazz musicians smoke it! They're Negroes! It's bad!



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#66 Jun 09 2009 at 8:37 AM Rating: Good
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Quiz time! What affected the crime rate in Detroit more than the crack boom?
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#67 Jun 09 2009 at 8:37 AM Rating: Good
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BUT SAMIRA! If we legalize marijuana, people will go on a rampage. You won't find chocolate pudding or Doritos in any store for hundreds of miles!
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Turin wrote:
Seriously, what the f*ck nature?
#68 Jun 09 2009 at 8:39 AM Rating: Excellent
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Timelordwho wrote:
Quiz time! What affected the crime rate in Detroit more than the crack boom?


Ummmmm unemployment?

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#69 Jun 09 2009 at 8:41 AM Rating: Good
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Nope, Abortion.

It's Freakonomics!
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#70 Jun 09 2009 at 8:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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Samira wrote:
Jazz musicians smoke it! They're Negroes! It's bad!
Pssstt... these days we call them "Coloreds"

Edited, Jun 9th 2009 11:47am by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#71 Jun 09 2009 at 9:04 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Cecil Adams wrote:
some article

Joph, stop being so reasonable with your cites and your research and making me look bad and whatnot!
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#72 Jun 09 2009 at 9:43 AM Rating: Decent
Terrifyingspeed wrote:
Prop 13 was the result of taxpayer revolt..... people were being taxed out of there homes due to prices escalating so much.

There were cases of Prop tax bills being higher than the cost of the home,
so in effect, you were being taxed on profit (appreciation) EVEN IF YOU DIDNT SELL YOUR HOUSE !!!


You still are. It just capped the rate of increase. Prop 13 also placed very high reqirements to pass any other taxes. As you correctly state, it was a taxpayer revolt.

Quote:
Cali may in fact be leading the charge, involuntarily, due to being forced to confront their liberal policies. We have been so wealthy, for so long, not sure its possible without significant pain.


See above. You are not only contradicting me, prop 13, but yourself.

Quote:
Illegal immigration is a huge part of it, but so is the massive entitlement structure, Union influence on GOVT jobs etc. (at the local county govt., you pay dues even if you dont join union, pretty sweet huh ?)


What? Basically, when home prices fall, everyone paying property taxes gets a huge tax cut. Thus the government doesn't have enough money to keep going. It is very difficult to raise taxes (or even pass a budget) due to 2/3 vote requirements. Blame the illegals? Seriously? Blame entitlements? Well, sure, we could cut services - and it is likely we are going to - but this is going to include things like the prisons, police, fire, schools. Since most people do not want these things cut and feel they are "entitled" to them, sure you can say that. Unions? I assume you're saying state/county employees are paid too much? My father in law was an employee of Riverside county for decades. They didn't have a raise in something like 30 years. They were unionized. It didn't stop them from having extremely low wages. I suppose some state employees are overpaid. On the whole, however, here's the problem: when home prices are high, the state is flush with money. But home prices are high. It is hard to hire good people without large salaries since they have to live here. When home prices fall, the state has no money so we can't hire - even though we could get good people to move here at reasonable salaries.

Ultimately, tying state revenue to home prices is probably going to have to go. There are other taxes, but right now we can't change the system due to large voting requirements.

Quote:

Bottom line, the gravy train has de-railed.

Before ya blast me, know 3 things : I live in Calif- I own my home- I have been in Business and worked with GOVT for years.



Sorry: who exactly was on this gravy train? I assume you're talking about illegal immigrants and the state employees? But that is so far outside my view of reality that I figured it would be best to check with you first.

I'd say the fundamental flaws in Prop 13 have been revealed and since it's going to be difficult to actually raise any other taxes to compensate, services will be cut. People will have the choice, but only a third can overrule the majority. I'd say that is a pretty serious flaw.

I meet the same 3 criteria as you. I hope you don't feel I'm "blasting you". I'm certainly challenging your ideas and assumptions.

So we have a, what, US$23 billion defect. What exactly would you cut that is going to make up that kind of money?

To me the answer is simple: instead of relying on property taxes, which as we have found out can fluctuate wildly, tax income or spending (sales). Change it to simple majority for taxes/budget and allow the legislature to change propositions by simple majority votes. Then if we keep electing liberal politicians, we actually will have high taxes and high services and if we elect conservative politicians, we'll have low taxes and low services. As it is now, it hardly matters who we elect: our taxes are governed by home prices, thus so are our services.
#73 Jun 09 2009 at 9:50 AM Rating: Default
publiusvarus wrote:
Could the pendulum have swung so far?

Quote:
Could California become the first state in the nation to do away with welfare?

That doomsday scenario is on the table as lawmakers wrestle with a staggering $24.3 billion budget deficit.



http://www.mcclatchydc.com/nation/story/69467.html


and they're also looking at the possibility of a flat tax,

Quote:
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said today that he would like to see such “radical” proposals come out of a commission now studying an overhaul of the state’s tax system. The governor told the editorial board of the Sacramento Bee that he hoped the commission would not be afraid to propose something like “a 15% straight tax.”

“That’s the kind of radical, daring kind of a proposal that I want to see on the table so we can look at it and say, ‘Oh, let’s study this, maybe that is the way to go,’ ” Schwarzenegger said during the discussion, which was webcast.


http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/06/flat-tax.html


Good for California.



Another Idea was to sell the land San Quintin is on.

Would it help out? Maybe. Is it likely to happen? Almost definitely not. Same as with cutting off Welfare.

USA as a whole should just be used to being in debt, it's the American way. They'll just pretend they're trying to find ways to fix it until it's their kids problem to pretend to be trying to fix.
#74 Jun 09 2009 at 1:31 PM Rating: Default
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yossarian wrote:
You still are. It just capped the rate of increase.


Quick correction. It did not cap the increase. There is no increase at all. Your property taxes are eternally 1% of the price you paid to buy the property. Period. It never goes up. Ever. Unless you sell the property. Then the new owner pays 1% per year on whatever he paid for it. As for the seller, if he buys another property with the profits of the sale of the first, he pays property taxes off the cost of the new property. If he doesn't, he has to pay capital gains taxes on the profit made on the original property (there may be other investment options available though, I'm not 100% certain).

Point being that it doesn't cap an increase. The tax doesn't increase. If you bought your home for 50k back in 1965, and today it's worth 500k, your yearly property taxes are still 1% of the original 50k purchase price (500 bucks a year). If you sell the house, the new owner will pay 5000 bucks a year in taxes on that home.

The property tax system in california is designed to apply taxes to people who buy and sell property for their business, while not penalizing folks who buy a home and live in it for a long time. What was happening was that retirees could not afford the property taxes on the homes they had purchased when they were working. It's a pretty good system IMO.


Quote:
What? Basically, when home prices fall, everyone paying property taxes gets a huge tax cut.


No. They actually don't. This is a side effect of Prop13. If I purchased my home for 500k 5 years ago, and today it's worth only 300k, I'm still paying 1% of the original 500k purchase price. Get it?

I could avoid paying those taxes, but then I'd have to sell the house and take a $200k loss...

I'm sure the process also saves the state a bundle in property assessment costs. You only have to assess the value of property when it's sold, and that's already done as part of the sale. The state does not need to do a darn thing.

Quote:
Thus the government doesn't have enough money to keep going. It is very difficult to raise taxes (or even pass a budget) due to 2/3 vote requirements.


Yeah. That's by design. Gee. Maybe they should stop spending so much? Wouldn't that be shocking! ;)

Quote:
Blame the illegals? Seriously?


One part of the problem only, but yes. Due to some really screwed up federal regulations, California has to provide services for *everyone* regardless of whether they are here legally or not (Fire, Medical, Education, etc). That's part of the strings that come with federal funding for those things. However, the census numbers don't take into account Illegals (nor should it), so this effectively means that California receives less funding for the government per head that it is being mandated to provide services for. The net effect is hard to calculate directly, but I've seen estimates from 5-20 Billion a year. Which is a pretty good chunk of the current California Deficit.

It's not the only issue, but it is absolutely one of the reasons California is struggling economically. Really stupid business tax structures is another of course...


Quote:
Blame entitlements? Well, sure, we could cut services - and it is likely we are going to - but this is going to include things like the prisons, police, fire, schools.


Yup. It's funny how everyone leaps to the services we all consider most important. Not one of those things is "entitlements" btw. We could gut welfare benefits. We could remove wasteful spending on a whole bunch of park and recreation expenses (I mentioned those silly eco-friendly bike paths which we pay ridiculous amounts of money to build and maintain). We could eliminate a bunch of social spending grants for pretty nebulous projects. There are a whole lot of things we could cut that *aren't* Fire, Health, Police, and Education. You know. All the stuff that isn't actually critically important.


Quote:
Unions? I assume you're saying state/county employees are paid too much? My father in law was an employee of Riverside county for decades. They didn't have a raise in something like 30 years. They were unionized. It didn't stop them from having extremely low wages. I suppose some state employees are overpaid.


Union workers and state workers are ridiculously overpaid and overstaffed. While dumping a bunch more unemployed folks on the streets would be a bad idea, I'm not opposed to pretty significant pay cuts across the board. Especially for highly paid administrators who don't seem to do much of anything at all except get in the way. Heck. Eliminate the prevailing wage laws and that would save the state a couple billion right off the top. And it might just improve worker efficiency along the way. Yeah. Free Market. What a concept!

Here's the thing though. There are other ways to trim budgets then trimming head count. In education, we pay a ridiculous amount of money selecting and buying "new" textbooks every year. Will it kill the students to learn from the same history textbook that last years students learned from? I don't think so. That's just an easy example. There are huge amounts of expenditures on things that aren't directly related with providing the service which could be cut. But everyone leaps to the scare tactic of jobs right off the bat.


Quote:
On the whole, however, here's the problem: when home prices are high, the state is flush with money. But home prices are high. It is hard to hire good people without large salaries since they have to live here. When home prices fall, the state has no money so we can't hire - even though we could get good people to move here at reasonable salaries.


And yet, it's not the private industries in California that are having too much trouble. There are some layoffs, but I haven't yet seen any major companies in California in dire risk of bankruptcy. Clearly, it's not just about being able to pay employees enough money to afford to live in the state. It has a whole lot more to do with paying employees relative to the amount of productive work they do. Companies with a profit motive manage to thrive in California *despite* Californians ridiculously harsh business tax code. If they can do it, then there's no reason the state can't as well. There's some other problem with the state labor forces that is causing their costs to be so high. What could it be? What could it be...

Quote:
Ultimately, tying state revenue to home prices is probably going to have to go. There are other taxes, but right now we can't change the system due to large voting requirements.


We do also have business taxes, income taxes, and sales taxes you know...
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#75 Jun 09 2009 at 2:07 PM Rating: Decent
gbaji wrote:



Quote:
What? Basically, when home prices fall, everyone paying property taxes gets a huge tax cut.


No. They actually don't. This is a side effect of Prop13. If I purchased my home for 500k 5 years ago, and today it's worth only 300k, I'm still paying 1% of the original 500k purchase price. Get it?



No, that is wrong. I, personally, have had my home value reassessed, at my request, and have lower property taxes as a result.

I don't have the time to correct the rest of your...post.
#76 Jun 09 2009 at 4:13 PM Rating: Decent
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yossarian wrote:
gbaji wrote:



Quote:
What? Basically, when home prices fall, everyone paying property taxes gets a huge tax cut.


No. They actually don't. This is a side effect of Prop13. If I purchased my home for 500k 5 years ago, and today it's worth only 300k, I'm still paying 1% of the original 500k purchase price. Get it?



No, that is wrong. I, personally, have had my home value reassessed, at my request, and have lower property taxes as a result.


You're correct. Prop8 (A different prop8) allowed homeowners to have their property re-assessed in the event of a real estate slump. That wasn't originally included in prop13, and I'd forgotten about it until you mentioned it. Probably because it hasn't happened in a long time.

You were also correct about the 2% yearly increase cap. It's been awhile since I read the actual law on this and I missed that bit. It's largely irrelevant since that's typically going to be less than inflation and/or property value increases, still protecting a relative decrease in effective tax over time.


Um... But aside from quibbling over minor details of the CA property tax laws, what about this is "bad"? From my perspective we should be looking at reducing expenditures, not looking for ways to increase tax revenue. And judging from last months votes, most Californians agree with me.
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