Calm before the Storm ...Follow

Late to the party, but anywho:



The next two weeks won't matter all that much. The European elections in the UK will not really have a profound effect on anything, except as a way for people to have a protest vote, most of whom won't use it anyway. Turnout for EU elections are always super-low. The only real question is whether the BNP will win some seats in the European Parliament, but other than that, it will be the usual stupid side-show of anti-EU rethoric.

The general elections are a bit more important, but these won't happen for another year or so. Tories will win. They will have a huge mess to pick-up, and apart from cutting funds to the public sector, I haven't heard many solutions coming from them. But, considering the state Labour is in, their policies could boil down to withdrawing free fruits at schools, and they would still win it.

The "Big" issue is constitutional reform, following the whole MP scandal. But I'm afraid I have to side with Smash and Nobbs on this one. I don't think much will come out of it. I doubt we'll ever go from FPTP to PR, unless the LIb-Dems do extremely well at the election and are part of a coalition. And even then, I wouldn't put money on it. The expenses system will be reformed, but the only people affected by this will be MPs, not us. The House of Lords reform might come about, but Labour have been trying for 10 years, without luck. I doubt the Tories will spend much political capital on this. As for giving more powers to MPs, I'm sure the Tories will campaign on that, and on devolution to local authorities, but will not act on it once elected.

Parties in opposition always claim they want more devolution, but find it very hard to give power away once they have it. I think we will see some "token democracy", like voting for Poice Commissioners, but even that is a sh*t idea.

England is not a very reformist country politically. The Tories even less so as a party. In a year's time, the expenses thing will be forgotten,and people will be worries about money and jobs and growth, not constitutional niceties.

It's a bit like before a World Cup. A lot of hype from the players and the media, which will translate into a faint whimper once the players actually hit the pitch.


Edited, Jun 1st 2009 10:01am by RedPhoenixxx

Thank you Captain Obvious and your sidekick Readily Apparent Boy.

Now, please notice the "future" tense in my post, thereby implying that it is *not* currently happening, but might happen in the "future". You know, the stuff that happens after the "now" bit.

As a side-note, while I did enjoy your 101 on British Policing, I was the Policy Officer of the main think-tank on policing in the UK, so if there's one subject I know something about, this is it. Fortunately, there's more than one.

"So why the claim about Police Commissioners??", I hear you bang on the keyboard. Well, I used to work very closely with Policy Exchange, which is the main Tory think-tank in the UK. The Tories are currently considering doing an important reform of the police, by trying to improve acountability and enabling the "people" to have a say in police decisions. Now, you could argue that this is already the case, since Police Authorities are half made-up of elected councillors, and you would be right, but the Tories seem to think that this lacks visibility, and they are therefore keen to make the process more direct, hence the idea of "directly elected police commissioners". Personally, I think that this smacks of politicians trying to deflect criticism of policing issues away from them and onto an elected commissioner, but they will dress it up as "democracy". This all stems from the Government's Green paper on policing, which came out last year.

There are a million things wrong with these proposals, but I don't think there's much point of going into an in-depth discussion with you on the subject. Like feeding jam to pigs, as we say in French.



If you'd pay a bit more attention to my posts, you'd see I rarely miss an opportunity to criticise this Labour government. I think it's ****, and I won't be saddened to see them out of power. But yeah, I guess that's a bit too much to ask.



Don't hold your breath.

No, there are plenty of people smarter than me on this forum.

They can usually tell the difference between present and future, though.



Ok, and what does that mean in English? My ****** is a bit rusty...

Gwyn: Parliamentary reform. I'll not go into this too much but to say that the old boys network is facing reform.

Smasharoo: Hahahaha, wow, I had no idea you were that much of a gigantic sucker. "Reform" ahahahaha.

Gwyn: Time will tell. Shall we revisit this after the next general election? I'm certain there will be a key change to some aspects of the way we the British choose to govern ourselves.

Gwyn: Saying all this I'm just amused and wait to see with baited breath what will fall out in the coming months.

Smasharoo: Nothing will, you ******* infant. Even if you morons are somehow stupid enough to put Cameron in power, what do you think is going to change? Above board fraud will become below board fraud? Yay!

Gwyn: Hey Boston grandpa, I'm interested in a change in the way the country is run. Not expenses, that is a symptom. Fraud will always occur, lets just see what happens shall we?

Gwyn, do you really not understand how political systems work? I'm not just talking about your specific system, but any such system with moving parts so to speak. Do you understand why any such system with large monetary investiture and people will keep itself from "reforming"?

There's a cause/effect relationship there as well...

I can hardly wait for the Brave New World that will surely emerge from the ashes......

After all, it can only be a matter of time before a govt gets elected that is made up of something other that ruling class oiks that actually wants to do stuff for the benefit of the *people* as opposed to maintaining the status quo in favour of themselves.....can't it?

My bucket of optimism overfloweth.

If Smash ever meets up with Nexa and she seems a little off,laughing too hard at his jokes or generally calling him a big hunk of brilliant manhood, beware. That's Timelordwho dressed up as Nexa, wearing her skin as his uniform. He's got it bad for Smash.

FWIW, I'm voting on the basis of my MEP's stance on CAP reform, EU Emissions policy and pension rights for divorcees.
In the local elections it's based on emissions from a local foundry, school admissions policies and recycling.

Gwyn. . . how do I put this.

YOU VOTE FOR YOUR REPRESENTATVIE!. Not a party, not a Prime Minister, not an Gubberment.

Daily Mail readers vote for PMs and Z-list celebs. You fUcking window-licking moran.

Also, English people suck at protesting. If this is the most serious political scandal since Profumo, which will bring forth the most radical political reform since Cromwell, why hasn't there even been a protest about it? Demonstrations outside Parliament? Riots?! Riot for fuck's sake. Make banners. Wear top hats. Burn stuff. PM me for more details on the subject.

There is a lot of grumbling, though, I'll give you that.

Still, I can't help but shake the feeling that voters will punish the major parties at the European Elections, which no one here takes seriously anyway, and that by the time the general election comes, people will elect the Tories, and that will be that. I can't see Cameron placing too much political capital on constitutional reform, when he'll have so many more pressing concerns to deal with.

Here's what I think will happen: Some reforms of the expenses system will take place between now and the GE, with some oversight by an "independent" body. That's 95% certain. Some Committee to examine a reform of the HoL, which will come to nothing. Some Committe to look at voting procedures, which will come out saying that certain forms of PR could be good, but that on the whole, the FPTP system is necessary is these troubled economic times. And... that's it. Well, that and a lot of backslapping from MPs for being so "ethical", "transparent", and "accountable to their constituents".

The economy, the environment, a terrorist attack, a nuclear Iran, all these things will, in a year's time, make the expenses scandal seem like a distant memory. Bets are on...

Absolutely. Or for "butcher". Or possibly ********** on". Either way, "deal" was certainly not the right word

Maybe the British should hold yearly practice riots, too.

But really, we have demonstrations, hunger strikes, anti-government parties and lately cathedral squatting in my neighbourhood every weekend now that it's warm. Most of it is to express an opinion against the recession.

And ze Chermans suck at revolution.


ETA: Wait, protesting is illegal in the UK? I mean, we have illegal (read: neonazi) protests too, but at least we can get a permit...

Edited, Jun 2nd 2009 12:02pm by Kalivha

You have to apply for a permit to protest within .6 of a mile.

I think the 'soft' approach given to the Tamil's is more to do with public perception of the problem, rather than any unwritten authority to contravene the rules. Further, this comes on the back of an IPCC investigation into the pro-hunt protests, which saw the police heavily criticised for their heavy handed methods, a trend which continued during the G20 protests.

You can only crack so many heads before someone gets cheesed off.