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Obamas honeymoon over?Follow

#27 Mar 23 2009 at 5:15 PM Rating: Decent
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Xsarus wrote:
See, I know you're completely blind to this, but compared to most peoples perspective on what was happening for the last 8 years, this has been smooth sailing.


What you are apparently blind to is that there's a difference between someone doing things you like or don't like, and someone doing something "well". Like or dislike Bush, he didn't have problems with his staff going in 5 different directions at the same time. He didn't have problems filling what should be simple executive posts. He didn't have one member of his staff saying one thing in the morning, and another saying the exact opposite in the afternoon. And while I'm sure you think all of his people were lying bastards, I can't recall a single incident in which a cabinet secretary made a statement one day, and then had to completely reverse his statement the very next day because it was so easily demonstrably false. But not just that, also a senior staff member *and* a couple members of his own party in Congress. All in the first couple months on the job.

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It's amusing to me that according to you while bush dealt with difficult situations, Obama lurches from misstep to misstep.


Say what you will about Bush, he pointed his white house in a direction and they all went that way. Obama seems to be standing in the middle of a crowd of people asking "Ok. What do you guys think we should do?". He's not leading. He's trying to compromise with his own staff and his own party. I know that's a component of his personality that helped win the election, but you can't run an executive office that way.

He needs to start leading. And I say this not as a partisan trying to paint Obama as a horrible president, but as a citizen of the US concerned that the man running the most important office in that country isn't just making decisions that I may not agree with, but doesn't appear to be in control of his own office. I believe that this is vastly worse than any partisan issues at hand.
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#28 Mar 23 2009 at 5:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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Actually, rather than go back and forth on this, I'll happily admit the same thing that I did to Totem:

Yup, the honeymoon is over. Everything now is through the sharp critical eye of the skeptical American. And, with that in mind, I'm thinking that Obama's numbers look pretty damn good all things considered Smiley: smile
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#29 Mar 23 2009 at 5:25 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
I can't recall a single incident in which a cabinet secretary made a statement one day, and then had to completely reverse his statement the very next day because it was so easily demonstrably false.
You're completely right of course. His administration had no problem maintaining a position that was demonstrably false.
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#30 Mar 23 2009 at 5:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
And that's the more significant number.
Not really, no. Although those have been bouncing in the same range over the last month as well.


If the chart on the page you linked before was sufficient to show approval, why do you need to find another one for the disapproval number? It's right there Joph. Let's not play "pick the best page" game, ok?


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I'll be charitable and guess that you just don't know what the words "massive" and "significant" mean.


I'd call a spread that narrows by about 14 points average over a two month period of time "massive" and "significant" Joph.

Gallup 56 to 39: 17 points
CBS 47 to 44: 3 points (odd outlier compared to everyone else)
Rasmussesn 26 to 14: 12 points
CNN 53 to 30: 23 points
Pew 47 to 33: 14 points


Even if we toss out the top and bottom, we're left with a 12, 14, 14, and 17 point spread differentials. A 14 point change in that spread over 2 months is pretty darn large Joph.
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#31 Mar 23 2009 at 5:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Xsarus wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I can't recall a single incident in which a cabinet secretary made a statement one day, and then had to completely reverse his statement the very next day because it was so easily demonstrably false.
You're completely right of course. His administration had no problem maintaining a position that was demonstrably false.


Way to miss the point. You disagreed with the policies of the Bush administration. Congratulations! You're a special snowflake.


This isn't about agreeing or disagreeing with the policies and agenda of the office. It's about how well the office is operating. And so far the Obama administration is floundering. No amount of you loving what he wants to do should remove the fact that he's doing it badly.
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#32 Mar 23 2009 at 5:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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Actually, I forgot that the RCP graph showed disapproval and had Polling Report open.

Accoring to RCP, Obama's average spread on 2/23 was 35.2. Today it's 30.7. A Change of 4.5 points in the last month. Yeah. "Massive".
Quote:
I'd call a spread that narrows by about 14 points average over a two month period of time "massive" and "significant" Joph.
Speakling of, why the sudden switch from "Between February and March" to "a two month period". Did you really think that Obama would keep the same approval numbers he had a week after Inauguration Day? Smiley: laughSmiley: laughSmiley: laugh

Edited, Mar 23rd 2009 8:38pm by Jophiel
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#33 Mar 23 2009 at 5:55 PM Rating: Good
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And so far the Obama administration is floundering.


BushCo handed him a giant stinking steaming festering ****.

I think 'fumbling' would've been a better word.
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#34 Mar 23 2009 at 6:34 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Actually, I forgot that the RCP graph showed disapproval and had Polling Report open.

Accoring to RCP, Obama's average spread on 2/23 was 35.2. Today it's 30.7. A Change of 4.5 points in the last month. Yeah. "Massive".
Quote:
I'd call a spread that narrows by about 14 points average over a two month period of time "massive" and "significant" Joph.
Speakling of, why the sudden switch from "Between February and March" to "a two month period". Did you really think that Obama would keep the same approval numbers he had a week after Inauguration Day?


Hah. Check your own eye for planks there Sparky...

I could ask you the same Joph. I was responding to your statement that "since January" his approval numbers had "wavered" between 60% and 65%. I simply calculated the disapproval during the same time period.

You then made a big deal out of the change and insisted that we only look at the last months deltas. All I did was look at the set of most recent polls, and then compare them to the first polls by those same organizations (ie: Compared the ones at the top to the ones at the bottom). No special agenda involved at all there Joph...


I could ask the same though. You're whole "staying steady" point only works if we look at the whole two months. If we look at just the last month, his approval numbers have dropped by 4.2% (which you observed and dismissed). So yeah. We could also show that his disapproval numbers didn't go up as high during that same time, but who cares?

The trend is that the spread has been dwindling pretty steadily. During the first month, his approval numbers went up slightly, but his disapproval numbers went up even more. In the second month, his approval numbers came back down, while his disapproval numbers continued to climb (but not as much as in the first month). The net effect is that the spread has narrowed significantly. Again. We can micro-examine it 15 different ways if you want, but any person with a brain can look at the RCP graph you linked and see it.
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#35 Mar 23 2009 at 6:37 PM Rating: Decent
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paulsol wrote:
Quote:
And so far the Obama administration is floundering.


BushCo handed him a giant stinking steaming festering ****.


Irrelevant. I'm not talking about the economic numbers. I'm not saying this because of any specific agenda issue. I'm talking purely about the amount of zigzagging his own administration has been doing. I'm talking about his difficulty getting some pretty key positions filled (like a whole ton of sub-cabinet Treasury positions, which would seem to be important given the afore-mentioned ****). I'm talking about staff who can't keep their own message straight from morning to mid-afternoon.

Quote:
I think 'fumbling' would've been a better word.


You're correct. Floundering just implies being in a bad situation without necessarily denoting blame or incompetence. Fumbling is a much much better word...
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#36 Mar 23 2009 at 6:41 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
paulsol wrote:
Quote:
And so far the Obama administration is floundering.


BushCo handed him a giant stinking steaming festering ****.


I'm not saying this because of any specific agenda issue.


Me Neither.

Are you sure you wern't??

Edited, Mar 24th 2009 2:42am by paulsol
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#37 Mar 23 2009 at 7:16 PM Rating: Decent
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paulsol wrote:
Me Neither.


Yet you brought in the idea of him being handed a "giant stinking steaming festering ****". Certainly seems like you're looking at his actions in that context.

Quote:
Are you sure you wern't??


Absolutely. Have I once mentioned a single specific agenda position with regard to my statements about the Obama administration? Nope. You did. Others have. I did not. I've bee pointing to amateur mistakes made in message and handling of the office in general. I've talked about mixed messages coming from his staff. I've talked about failures to fill executive posts. I've talked about problems with a number of people he has picked for posts.


My argument here is that he appears to be relying far far too much on others to make decisions. He's trying to please too many different groups and ultimately failing to please any of them. He needs to lead. He needs to pick a direction and go. Instead, it's almost like his White House is running by committee. Worse, the committee seems to be made up of different factions within the Dem party who all want to have a bigger slice of the political pie.


None of this has *anything* at all to do with my personal opinion of his politic or the specific direction of his policies. I tend to disagree with those too, but that's not what I'm talking about in this thread. He's been all over the map so far. He makes a big announcement about how lobbyists wont be allowed, and then appoints several. Then his staff first tries to deny it, then insists that "these" lobbyists didn't count, then he finally has to make a statement saying basically that he broke his own rule, but it was ok to do it this one time. He makes a big deal about how earmarks wont be tolerated, and then signs a bill with more pork than anything we've seen in like 20 years (8% of a 400+ Billion dollar budget bill was pork). Again. He gives an excuse that his policy is sound, but he didn't apply it this time, and then promises that he will apply it in the future... Um... Sure!

Those are the kinda of missteps that make one think there's no one piloting the boat so to speak. He's making promises, then his staff breaks them, then they try to cover it up, that doesn't work (it never does), and he has to go on TV with yet another Mea Culpa. His staff seems to be failing repeatedly to do even the most basic vetting of the nominees they're handing him. I'm not sure if that's just incompetence, or if there are some real fights going on in the Dem bullpen that the general public just isn't aware of. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that they aren't actually incompetent, which means that decisions like appointing a Treasury Secretary who's managed to forget to pay his own taxes had a lot more to do with someone's political plans than finding the correct guy for the job. We can speculate about all the other vacancies, but I'd suspect that there is similar political wheeling and dealing going on behind the scenes as well.


You expect legislatures to spend some time jockeying around for committee positions and electing leaders and whatnot early in a term. You do *not* expect that sort of thing going on in the executive branch. Yet that appears to be what's happening right now. And that is the direct result of the guy sitting in the Oval Office not taking adequate control of the situation.
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#38 Mar 23 2009 at 8:36 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
paulsol wrote:
Me Neither.


Yet you brought in the idea of him being handed a "giant stinking steaming festering ****".


Well, he was.

The christmas faerie could have handed it to him, and it would still have been a ****.

The rest of your butthurt ramblings lead me to believe that you are somewhat unbalanced.

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#39 Mar 23 2009 at 8:48 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
some stuff
You're writing an aweful lot about polling and whatever. I guess my question would be; who cares?

Oh and I love how you misunderstand someone, or are arguing a different point, realize that, and then suddenly try to make it their fault. It makes my day every time.

gbaji wrote:
some stuff about not being partisan.
Bwahahaha

gbaji wrote:
And so far the Obama administration is floundering.
I thought it was lurching.

Edited, Mar 23rd 2009 11:50pm by Xsarus
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#40 Mar 23 2009 at 9:19 PM Rating: Good
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paulsol wrote:
gbaji wrote:
paulsol wrote:
Me Neither.


Yet you brought in the idea of him being handed a "giant stinking steaming festering ****".


Well, he was.

The christmas faerie could have handed it to him, and it would still have been a ****.

The rest of your butthurt ramblings lead me to believe that you are somewhat unbalanced.



I know quite a few mentally ill folk and most of them make more sense then gbaji, unless they are off their medications.

They also can't stay on topic during discussions.

Now I really need to go to bed and play spoons with Jonwin.
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#41 Mar 23 2009 at 9:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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Edited, Mar 24th 2009 12:50am by Jophiel
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#42 Mar 24 2009 at 8:36 AM Rating: Good
A mysteriously deleted post from Joph. Now I'm curious.
#43 Mar 24 2009 at 8:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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Meh, I decided it wasn't worth it. If Gbaji wants to be self-assured that Obama is flailing and tanking and eating his shoes or something, I don't really have the vested interest in futilely trying to convince him otherwise. Maybe I'll put more effort into it closer to 2012 when it'd matter Smiley: grin
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#44 Mar 24 2009 at 8:48 AM Rating: Good
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Meh, I decided it wasn't worth it. If Gbaji wants to be self-assured that Obama is flailing and tanking and eating his shoes or something, I don't really have the vested interest in futilely trying to convince him otherwise. Maybe I'll put more effort into it closer to 2012 when it'd matter


I think you'd need to start now, if you want a chance at 2016.
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#45 Mar 24 2009 at 9:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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I'm totally not voting for Obama in 2016 Smiley: mad
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#46 Mar 24 2009 at 10:15 AM Rating: Good
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I'm totally not voting for Obama in 2016


What if he's running against Bush?
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#47 Mar 24 2009 at 10:22 AM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
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I'm totally not voting for Obama in 2016


What if he's running against Bush?


Wich one?
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#48 Mar 24 2009 at 11:31 AM Rating: Decent
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Did you all just argue about an American Idol chat board conversation? I didn't read the **** below that, probably some joph - gbaji facts vs. semantics tussle.
#49 Mar 24 2009 at 11:33 AM Rating: Excellent
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Actually, we argued about American Idol. That chick from last week was ROBBED!
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#50 Mar 24 2009 at 12:58 PM Rating: Decent
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Xsarus wrote:
gbaji wrote:
some stuff
You're writing an aweful lot about polling and whatever. I guess my question would be; who cares?


Because that's what the thread topic was about? What should I be talking about Tapioca Pudding? I wasn't the one who pulled out the charts and graphs and whatnot either. Strange that you didn't reply to Joph and ask him why this was so important that he needed to find and link like three different sets of polling data on the subject.

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Oh and I love how you misunderstand someone, or are arguing a different point, realize that, and then suddenly try to make it their fault. It makes my day every time.


Every time? Just because you can't follow the argument and get lost isn't my fault.

I'll point out again, that Joph made all the changes. I just responded to him. He started out talking about the entire 2 month period because that was convenient for his "approval numbers have hovered in the same range" argument. Then, when I pointed out the disapproval numbers, he suddenly insisted that we only look at the last month. Um... why?

He tried to play the switcharoo. Not me. And if you weren't just cheerleading for "your side" you'd realize it.


Again. Just look at the lines on the damn graph Joph linked. Do you need to see more than that?



What's startling to me is how many people on this forum leap to accuse me of being partisan while so blatantly having picked a side before even entering the discussion. I'd think that some people might have a bit more honesty within them. But apparently not...
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#51 Mar 24 2009 at 1:04 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
If Gbaji wants to be self-assured that Obama is flailing and tanking and eating his shoes or something, I don't really have the vested interest in futilely trying to convince him otherwise.


Er? What self-assured anything?

Gwynn posted an article suggesting that Obama's massive popular support may be weakening as a result of the AIG debacle (among others). You all jumped up and insisted that "It's not so!!!", and have been running around trying to prove that Obama is just as popular and wonderful and messianic as he ever was.


And I'm the nutty one suddenly? Lol... You guys are practically neurotic. So worried that anyone might perceive a reduction in the popularity of your favorite FuhrerPresident that you viciously attack anyone who doesn't also leap to his defense. It's hilarious really.
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