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#77 Mar 03 2009 at 3:30 PM Rating: Good
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My back yard has zero dead polar bears. If polar bears were dying, my back yard should be hip deep in bear carcasses, I say!


It hasn't yet been proven to me that their constant drinking of non delicious real cane sugar! based Cola products isn't the real cause of their peril.

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#78 Mar 03 2009 at 4:51 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
If anyone has a point to make about anthropogenic climate change that hasn't been covered here or here, lemme know, kk?


Smiley: mad

It's my professional opinion as an expert climatologist/feng shui master that all global warming is caused by your face.
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#79 Mar 03 2009 at 6:20 PM Rating: Default
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Baron von Annabella wrote:
First of all, the effects of global warming are not going to occur two or three hundred years--in fact, we are seeing the effects now and most signs point to the fact that it will get significantly worse in our lifetime.


Which signs would that be? Snowstorms in March?

I get that it's "complex", but that works both ways. You're supporting a political agenda that is based on the assumption that global temperatures will continue to rise over the next century (or "within our lifetime"). Those of us on the other side aren't predicting anything. Your side is. You are saying that there's some high degree of certainty that the entire planet's average temperature will increase by X degrees over Y amount of time.


That's what's missing though. Want to guess how much the average temperature has gone up in the decade since Gore announced that this was a massive problem that had to be addressed "right now"? Zero. We're not talking about weather patterns, dry spells, freak snowstorms, etc. All of those could mean anything at all. We're talking about the one single thing that *must* happen if "Global Warming' is actually something we need to be terrifically concerned about. Yet, oddly, global temperatures have stayed steady for the last decade...
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#80 Mar 03 2009 at 6:57 PM Rating: Excellent
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That's what's missing though. Want to guess how much the average temperature has gone up in the decade since Gore announced that this was a massive problem that had to be addressed "right now"? Zero.


Want to guess the statistical significance of a random ten years temperature change to the overall trend? Zero.

Was there really NO MATH AT ALL during your junior college education? No one, anywhere, has claimed that disaster was looming over us in an immediate sudden change set to occur in such a ludicrously short timeframe. What has been noted is that by the time chuckleheads like you come around to accepting fucking 8th grade thermodynamics as fact, it very well may be FAR TOO LATE to do anything. From a probabilistic standpoint, your "side" of the argument borders on the idiotic.

If you accept that there's a 1 in 1000 chance that the laws of physics really do apply and that increasing the amount of greenhouse gases will eventually lead to climate change, there's ZERO reason not to reduce them. That's the truly moronic part of this. There is no detriment to doing something, there is some chance of catastrophe if nothing is done. There is no long term negative economic consequence to reducing hydrocarbon/co/co2 gas output. There is only a short term negative consequence to very specific special interests, NONE OF WHICH, incidentally do you derive any benefit from. You're not secretly the heir to a coal mining fortune, are you?

No, your EXCLUSIVE reason for this sudden unique "skepticism" has ENTIRELY to do with the fact that people you disagree with about COMPLETELY UNRELATED things often hold the opposite view. When will you move beyond being such a fucking child? I still tie a full Windsor when I wear a tie, even though Ronald Regan did and Patrick Buchanan does, and no Liberal icon in the last 50 years has. Why? Because I think it looks good. Because every opinion I hold or thing I do isn't slavishly dependent on being diametrically opposed to whatever people I've chosen as "enemies" decide. Can you not see that you're being openly manipulated? It's sickening.

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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#81 Mar 03 2009 at 8:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

That's what's missing though. Want to guess how much the average temperature has gone up in the decade since Gore announced that this was a massive problem that had to be addressed "right now"? Zero.


Want to guess the statistical significance of a random ten years temperature change to the overall trend? Zero.


When someone is making predictions about temperatures based on a theoretical model, which is supposed to have massive effects during our lifetimes?

Sorry. That's pretty darn relevant.

Quote:
Was there really NO MATH AT ALL during your junior college education? No one, anywhere, has claimed that disaster was looming over us in an immediate sudden change set to occur in such a ludicrously short timeframe.


Except the person I was responding to. Do you just not bother to read before posting?


Quote:
If you accept that there's a 1 in 1000 chance that the laws of physics really do apply and that increasing the amount of greenhouse gases will eventually lead to climate change, there's ZERO reason not to reduce them.


It is not a 1 in a 1000 chance, or a 1 in a million chance Smash. The theory is just plain "wrong" as it is applied to the political agenda.


The reason not to do the things the political activists want is that they will be massively more harmful to the humans living on this planet than any possible climate changes which might occur would be.

Your acting on fear. Make people afraid and get them to do what you want. But what people are being told they need to do has little to do with preventing climate change and a whole lot to do with imposing greater government control over the populaces and economies of the world. So yeah. There are many reason not to do stupid things like cap and trade systems, for a gas that probably has nothing at all to do with global temperatures, but will have a whole lot to do with controlling and regulating every single industry on the planet.

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That's the truly moronic part of this. There is no detriment to doing something, there is some chance of catastrophe if nothing is done.


Wrong. And Wrong. There is virtually zero chance that not imposing carbon cap and trade (for instance) will cause a global climate disaster. There is nearly a 100% chance that by doing so, it will strengthen specific types of political control on a whole range of industries. The ironic part is that most people can't see this simple fact. It's like the government saying that everyone must give up free speech because only by doing so can we prevent air pollution (or something equally ridiculous). Idiots like you will line up to insist that if there's even a small chance of disaster it costs us "nothing" to comply.

Um... It costs us freedom. That's worth a lot to me. I know it doesn't to you, but that's just you.

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There is no long term negative economic consequence to reducing hydrocarbon/co/co2 gas output.


If there wasn't, no one would be opposed to what the government is proposing. You get that right? Lol...

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There is only a short term negative consequence to very specific special interests, NONE OF WHICH, incidentally do you derive any benefit from. You're not secretly the heir to a coal mining fortune, are you?


Oh yes. Just a short term negative to a "special interest". Um... Would that be a political ideology you don't like? What a coincidence! When I said it had to do with politics, who knew you agreed with me?


The reality is that this is almost entirely about politics. It's about "winning" an ideological war by eliminating anyone who disagrees with you. In this case, by using the power of the government and trumped up fears of the population to continue to apply more and more political and economic pressure to those who disagree with you.

Quote:
No, your EXCLUSIVE reason for this sudden unique "skepticism" has ENTIRELY to do with the fact that people you disagree with about COMPLETELY UNRELATED things often hold the opposite view.


I believe that science should not be manipulated to serve purely political ends. You are correct. And since that is *exactly* what is happening, I'm justified in my opposition. Congratulations for noodling that one out.


Quote:
Can you not see that you're being openly manipulated? It's sickening.



A good rule of thumb is that if someone tells you that if you don't do something, some horrible bad thing will happen, that person is the one attempting to manipulate you. I'll continue to be a skeptic, thank you very much...
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#82 Mar 03 2009 at 8:09 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:

The reality is that this is almost entirely about politics. It's about "winning" an ideological war by eliminating anyone who disagrees with you. In this case, by using the power of the government and trumped up fears of the population to continue to apply more and more political and economic pressure to those who disagree with you.


No, it's about a bunch of people using non-arguments shrouded in language of 'skepticism' to discount a well-established scientific theory. You guys discounting man-made global warming are providing NO evidence to back up your half-witted conspiracy theories.

No, guys, it's not political. It's not clever, smart or demonstrates open minded critical thinking to discount a scientific theory based on nothing but you what you think, based on nothing but a weather report and a willingness to stick your head in the sand and pretend that it's going to be okay. It's laughable.

Trust me, there is more to gain with big oil minimizing the effects of global warming than environmentalists promoting wind power. The fact that you think it is the reverse doesn't even make logical sense.
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#83 Mar 03 2009 at 8:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Want to guess how much the average temperature has gone up in the decade since Gore announced that this was a massive problem that had to be addressed "right now"? Zero.
Wow, that'd be pretty horribly damning if it wasn't already predicted by about half the models damn near a decade ago. Most of the other half showed fairly insignificant change over that period. You'd almost think that this was largely expected years ago.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#84 Mar 04 2009 at 4:37 AM Rating: Good
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Now is the time to Necro this thread. Smiley: nod

It has my first ever Asylum post in it. Wow. It's not as long ago as I thought it was. Hanging out with you guys has dilated my time sense apparently.
#85 Mar 04 2009 at 6:32 AM Rating: Decent
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Iamadam the Shady wrote:
Allegory wrote:
paulsol wrote:
I'm a 'man-made' global warming skeptic.

Bad news: you're either ignorant or stupid. Good news: you get to choose!
paulsol wrote:
If we assume that GW is happening, can you or anyone else, say how much 'we' are contributing to it? And if 'we' are contributing, how much 'we' are contributing? And how fast is our contribution causing the worlds climate change??

Have you read any of the research journals by climatologists on the issue or do you just assume facts that contradict your ideas haven't been proved? I only ask to be polite, I already know the answer.


Isn't it unfortunate that people who don't believe the same things you do get the same amount of importance given to their vote?
Yeah, ignorant or stupid you pick:p

While a predominance of credible scientists will agree that there is a preponderance of evidence suggesting that human-kinds actions, mainly the burning of fossil fuels, has caused the over-all global climate patterns to change, and will continue to do so. It's hardly proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the anticipated rise in global temperature is an outcome.

I've seen the co2 levels in the ambient air of my little state increase 2-fold over the last 15 years - and this is a rural state. We've changed our local little system. Does this prove global warming? - of course not. Is it evidence - yep. There is lots of evidence, however it would be preposterous for us to assume we had this planets current, past or future climate all figured out. We're not even close.

There are lots of good reasons to reduce our dependence on oil/coal/natural gas. Suspected modification of global climate patterns is only one of them. Heart disease, respiratory disease, numerous types of cancer, depletion of resources, irreparable damage to ecosystems, dependence on other nations, are some others.


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#86 Mar 04 2009 at 6:35 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
My back yard has zero dead polar bears. If polar bears were dying, my back yard should be hip deep in bear carcasses, I say!
Is Jophiel's Lawnmower of Doom big enough to take out a polar bear?
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Alma wrote:
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#87 Mar 04 2009 at 6:51 AM Rating: Excellent
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Not since I converted it to run on solar energy and rainbows.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#88 Mar 04 2009 at 6:54 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Not since I converted it to run on solar energy and rainbows.
Add some skittles for a power-boost.
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#89 Mar 04 2009 at 8:48 AM Rating: Good
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Technically rainbows are solar energy so you could run your lawnmower on rainbows. Not that it would stop Flea from questioning your sanity/sexuality.
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#90 Mar 04 2009 at 1:10 PM Rating: Good
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There are many distinct issues here that get lumped together into a meaningless clump of partisan cheerleading, talking points, and ignorant debate.

Some distinct questions that should not be lumped together into one issue/answer include:

Is the warming of the earth a bad thing?
Is the earth warming in a clearly identifiable trend?
If so, will it continue to warm based on all reasonable predictions?
If so, is the warming of earth in any way attributable to humanity's actions?
If so, is our contribution significant?
If it is, what should we do to limit our effects?

Some of these answers are very obvious and should not be controversial. I don't hear anyone claiming that warming is not occurring or that it is not a bad thing for humanity short-term.

Generally, most scientists agree that this warming trend will continue and that global warming is and has been increased by human activity since 1750. (See page 5 of the IPCC official summary report for press and policy makers below.)

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf

The debate now lies in what should we do about it, which is simple policy haggling based on predictions about cause and effect relationships.

However, I do think skeptics have valid and reasonable points that shouldn't be dismissed just because a certain number of experts believe one thing or another.

One important aspect to consider is that we have very little historical context from which to judge our climate changes. We may do some speculative analysis with carbon dating or ice core research, but what about cosmological cycles that go beyond our ability to measure, such as a sun or galaxy cycle?

Recent research indicates that many planets in our solar system are also undergoing global warming (Mars, Jupiter, and Pluto are confirmed, there may be others) which leads some scientists to speculate that sun or galaxy activity is the primary cause of our global warming. They are not saying that human activity doesn't contribute, just that it contributes little enough to be insignificant compared with these cosmic forces.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/070312_solarsys_warming.html

In any case, any discussion about man-made global warming should include other ecological, economic, and social effects of the process and policies involved. Obviously getting into proxy wars for oil which is very inefficient and pollutes our environment when used for transportation is a terrible idea, and so is burning coal for energy. Regardless of my skepticism, I fail to see how one could not embrace the "anti-global warming" political agenda when it would solve so many other problems.
#91 Mar 04 2009 at 1:34 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
Recent research indicates that many planets in our solar system are also undergoing global warming (Mars, Jupiter, and Pluto are confirmed, there may be others) which leads some scientists to speculate that sun or galaxy activity is the primary cause of our global warming. They are not saying that human activity doesn't contribute, just that it contributes little enough to be insignificant compared with these cosmic forces.


Hey, one problem, Pluto isn't a planet. OK, that's a lie, there's far more than one problem.

What's funny is that you linked a article which touches briefly on why solar cycles are not the cause for global warming. They also mention a pattern* of solar energy absorbtion which runs counter to relatively recent warming trends, although they do not mention this. Global warming has slowed recently, according to a source earlier in this thread, you see. Woops!

*
Quote:
In 2005, Long’s team published a study in the journal Science showing that Earth experienced a period of “solar global dimming” from 1960 to 1990, during which time solar radiation hitting our planet’s surface decreased. Then from the mid-1990’s onward, the trend reversed and Earth experienced a “solar brightening.”
#92 Mar 04 2009 at 2:26 PM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
There are many reason not to do stupid things like cap and trade systems, for a gas that probably has nothing at all to do with global temperatures, but will have a whole lot to do with controlling and regulating every single industry on the planet.


The bolded section is a science question. I've included the rest simply to ensure gbaji is talking about CO2. gbaji is wrong, according to the current best research on climate. Even the harshest critics have come around on this point. There really isn't any substantive disagreement on this point. I checked a years worth of Science, Nature and Scientific American articles on the topic years ago and not a single one agreed with gbaji. Since then the situation has not improved for global warming skeptics.

Of course our current best science on the topic could be wrong. That is what is so great about science. As opposed to politics in which despite massive evidence indicating they are wrong, people cling to their political convictions all the same.

There really is a political choice, of course. There always is. You can listen to the best science and act on it, or you can ignore it and do whatever you like.

It is sad to me how many people simply deny the basic information available to them (not only on science but in general, for example the news) and cling instead to what they believed before the evidence came in.
#93 Mar 04 2009 at 3:20 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
What's funny is that you linked a article which touches briefly on why solar cycles are not the cause for global warming. They also mention a pattern* of solar energy absorbtion which runs counter to relatively recent warming trends, although they do not mention this. Global warming has slowed recently, according to a source earlier in this thread, you see. Woops!


I'm really not sure what you mean. The article I linked had scientists arguing for both sides, that recent global warming is caused almost exclusively by humans and that it is caused almost exclusively by cosmic forces. The article by no means concluded with one side or the other, and neither did I.

Your other quote illustrates the point I am making, it includes data from 1960-today. We have no perspective from which to judge long-term cosmic cycles. We have a partial glimpse of one tiny little period in history when we stopped believing the church and actually started investigating phenomena ourselves, and we assume very much from the small amount of evidence that we have collected in this short period of time (~500 years).

I do think human actions contribute significantly to global warming, I just don't think the scientific evidence or conclusions are as certain as people would like them to be, or believe they are.
#94 Mar 04 2009 at 3:38 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
The article by no means concluded with one side or the other, and neither did I.


It brought up your side only to dash it against the rocks.

Look:

Quote:
While evidence suggests fluctuations in solar activity can affect climate on Earth, and that it has done so in the past, the majority of climate scientists and astrophysicists agree that the sun is not to blame for the current and historically sudden uptick in global temperatures on Earth, which seems to be mostly a mess created by our own species.


The extremely clear conclusion of the article is that solar fluctuations have a small impact on the environment. It's there, in the direct quote above. Other key indicators: number of people expressing a certain opinion and calling into question already accepted impacts of the sun's cycles (at the end of the article).
#95 Mar 04 2009 at 4:12 PM Rating: Good
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The article by no means concluded with one side or the other, and neither did I.


It brought up your side only to dash it against the rocks.


For the third time in three posts, I don't have a "side." The typical global warming debate consists primarily of a bunch of confused sheep quoting what some "expert" said without any critical thinking.

Quote:
The extremely clear conclusion of the article is that solar fluctuations have a small impact on the environment. It's there, in the direct quote above.


The article listed quotes from scientists who advocated both positions, that the solar fluctuations were the main cause and that they were not. The author of the article did not conclude with one side or the other. However, even if it weren't the sun, that doesn't discount other factors such as cosmic waves or dust, or things we haven't discovered or even imagined yet.

You never addressed the point. Simply because the majority of scientists believe something doesn't make it true. We thought Newton and Einstein were absolutely correct until we started getting into quantum mechanics. The point is that the scientists do not have enough evidence to form a certain conclusion because we have been collecting evidence for about 500 out of roughly 4,600,000,000 years.

There are too many variables and not enough control over them to be certain.
#96 Mar 04 2009 at 4:27 PM Rating: Decent
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Baron von Annabella wrote:
No, it's about a bunch of people using non-arguments shrouded in language of 'skepticism' to discount a well-established scientific theory.


Well established? Global warming is just the latest theory of the moment. It's in favor politically, so it gets lots of attention.

What's so astoundingly funny is that your statement about non-arguments is far far more applicable to those raising the global warming alarm than those who are skeptical about it. There are a whole lot of really good scientific arguments why we *shouldn't* be spending large amounts of money fighting CO2 emissions out of a fear that if we don't there will be some kind of global disaster.

Here's just one climatologist who presents a solid counterargument. There are many many more. But as this particular guy's article points out, they just don't get as much press, and what press they do get tends to be mostly screeching about how wrong they are...

Quote:
You guys discounting man-made global warming are providing NO evidence to back up your half-witted conspiracy theories.


We're not the ones pushing for tens of billions of dollars to be spent though. The burden is on the other side. Yet, in typical fashion, we're supposed to prove a negative here.

Quote:
No, guys, it's not political. It's not clever, smart or demonstrates open minded critical thinking to discount a scientific theory based on nothing but you what you think, based on nothing but a weather report and a willingness to stick your head in the sand and pretend that it's going to be okay blindly adopt a theory based on nothing but unproven assumptions which have not yet held up to any real experimentation, and insisting that everyone must run around with their hair on fire and spend ridiculous sums of money to deal with an invented problem.


FTFY

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It's laughable.


Yes. It is. That's *exactly* how I view global warming. It's **** poor science, turned into political agenda, designed to sucker people into supporting whatever silly thing they're told.

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Trust me, there is more to gain with big oil minimizing the effects of global warming than environmentalists promoting wind power. The fact that you think it is the reverse doesn't even make logical sense.



You're kidding right? Big oil will pass whatever increased costs are associated with dealing with global warming (cap and trade for example) right on to the consumer. In fact, they'll make more money, because their profits are based on a percentage of their operating expenses. Remember when oil when up to $140/barrel? What happened to big oil profits? They went up. Because their profit margin is based on the relative cost of the good they are providing. If the government artificially increases the cost to sell oil or burn coal, or whatever, that just increases their real profits.

It's not the money or cost that is a concern. It's that with increased regulation comes increased control. They fear that they'll be pushed out of the market by government run oil and power companies (which massively dwarf them on the international stage btw). That's what this is really about. Control.

Do you really believe this is about environmentalists promoting wind power? Exactly how many wind power plants are being built with funds specifically tagged to fight global warming (above those which may have been funded anyway)? And how many big government taxes and regulations are being applied to the coal/gas industries? How many cap and trade systems are being proposed for all industries? It's not and never has been about environmentalism. That's just the hook used to get people to support it.
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#97 Mar 04 2009 at 4:31 PM Rating: Good
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So apparently humankind can dump massive amounts of non-native gasses into the atmosphere with no fear of consequence. Hooray! It's 1975 again!
#98 Mar 04 2009 at 4:41 PM Rating: Good
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Well, CO2 is a native gas...
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#99 Mar 04 2009 at 4:41 PM Rating: Good
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TirithRR wrote:
Well, CO2 is a native gas...
But not in a native amount :P
#100 Mar 04 2009 at 4:58 PM Rating: Good
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People like to argue that the money spent to fix global warming could be spent better elsewhere, but they fail to recognize that nearly every dollar spent thusly needs to be spent anyway - to ensure the long term sustainability of natural resources for the human population. Renewable energy, recycling, reuse, reduction of waste - they fix both global warming AND sustainability. Emissions control fixes both global warming AND reduces chronic health problems, increases quality of life. Emissions control also allows more people to live in more densely populated cities - an arrangement that leads to further efficiences in energy and resource use.


#101 Mar 04 2009 at 5:19 PM Rating: Excellent
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You're citing Timothy Ball gbaji? You're citing a person who blatantly lies about his credentials and produces virtually no peer reviewed research?
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