gbaji wrote:
I'm assessing simple probabilities
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No you're not. You're just making stuff up. Which isn't the same thing.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Smasharoo wrote:
30,000,000,000 to 1 against, roughly, given the amount of energy spent investigating his past.
Lol. You're kidding, right? I don't care what the actual odds are Smash. I care about which is more likely than the other. I think it's pretty obvious which is which.
We both now which it is. Now you're just arguing for the sake of seeing your words appear on the screen...
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
gbaji wrote:
I don't care what the actual odds are Smash. I care about which is more likely than the other.
If I wrote a book of his quotes up, I'd have to give him some of the money, wouldn't I?
Yeah, nevermind then.
Nexa
“It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes. But a half-wit remains a half-wit, and the emperor remains an emperor.â€
― Neil Gaiman, The Sandman, Vol. 9: The Kindly Ones
― Neil Gaiman, The Sandman, Vol. 9: The Kindly Ones
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I'm assessing simple probabilities
Are you seriously arguing that Obama would be more likely as president-elect to have gotten involved directly in a scheme by Blagojovich to sell his senate seat, then to have gotten involved in one of probably dozens of corrupt schemes by Blago over the last 6+ years prior to being in the national spotlight and prior to Blago being under investigation?
I can't think of any reason other than pure orneriness to take that position Joph.
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
Nexa wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I don't care what the actual odds are Smash. I care about which is more likely than the other.
If I wrote a book of his quotes up, I'd have to give him some of the money, wouldn't I?
Yeah, nevermind then.
Nexa
Do you actually need to calculate the odds of lightning striking you and the odds of getting into a car accident to know which one is more likely? That's strange...
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
gbaji wrote:
Are you seriously arguing...
So it's not "assessing probabilities", it's "guessing this is true 'cause it makes sense to me". Nothing wrong with that, I'm just wondering why you find it so important to dress it up as anything other than blind guessing.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Do you actually need to calculate the odds of lightning striking you and the odds of getting into a car accident to know which one is more likely? That's strange...
What I actually need is for you to delineate what the value is in one event with a probability 19 SDs out being more likely than another event with a probability 22 SDs out.
It's more likely that I'll be hit in the face by an asteroid than it is a comet. This does not add value to a discussion of what sort of umbrella I should buy. It's more likely Obama gave Blago a bag of money in 2002 than in 2008. This does not add value to a discussion of these charges.
See?
Edited, Dec 30th 2008 6:49pm by Smasharoo
Disclaimer:
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
Jophiel wrote:
So it's not "assessing probabilities", it's "guessing this is true 'cause it makes sense to me". Nothing wrong with that, I'm just wondering why you find it so important to dress it up as anything other than blind guessing.
I'm not guessing anything is true. I'm pointing at the focus purely on the possibility that Obama might have been involved in the senate selling seat and observing that this is strange, since it's more likely that if he was ever involved in anything corrupt involving Blagojovich, that it happened 2-6 years ago, than right after he won the presidential election.
That's it. That's all I was saying. Why the hell you do insist on reading far more into my statement than what I said?
Would you agree that it is more likely that Obama got involved in some shady deal with Blago sometime between 2002 and say 2007, then that he was involved in the selling of the senate seat in November of this year? Yes or no? If the answer is yes, then why the hell are you arguing with me?
Edited, Dec 30th 2008 4:02pm by gbaji
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
If the answer is yes, then why the hell are you arguing with me?
No one's argued with you. Several people have mocked you. I realize it can be difficult to determine the difference, but I assure you, no one has argued that it's more likely Obama was involved in this recent corruption than it is that he was previously involved in something similar.
Disclaimer:
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.
Smasharoo wrote:
If the answer is yes, then why the hell are you arguing with me?
No one's argued with you. Several people have mocked you.
No one's argued with you. Several people have mocked you.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
Jophiel wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:
If the answer is yes, then why the hell are you arguing with me?
No one's argued with you. Several people have mocked you.
No one's argued with you. Several people have mocked you.
Lol. For guys who weren't arguing with me, you sure did argue a whole lot...
Insecure much? Seriously. Are you guys that loath to say that I'm right about anything that you'd rather dance around for 2 pages or so, and then when you can't keep avoiding the issue you pretend you were just playing around? Wow. Just wow...
King Nobby wrote:
More words please
gbaji wrote:
Lol. For guys who weren't arguing with me, you sure did argue a whole lot...
But, yeah... we were putting a lot of work into arguing with you. That's right. Rrwar!
Quote:
Insecure much? Seriously.
Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
One of the complaints about Obama that surfaced early in the election season from the rest of the gang in Illinois was that he wasn't in cahoots with anyone. The closest he got was Rezko, and as soon as he realized what kind of slimeball Rezko was, he backed off and avoided any sort of further entanglement. Illinois politicians hated Obama because he succeeded without playing their game, which was trading favors. Tit for tats. You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
He didn't owe anyone any back scratches, which is why they didn't know what to do with him. He stayed in Illinois just long enough to learn how the game was played and decided to have no part in it, which pissed off people like Blago to no end.
He didn't owe anyone any back scratches, which is why they didn't know what to do with him. He stayed in Illinois just long enough to learn how the game was played and decided to have no part in it, which pissed off people like Blago to no end.
Ha
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/blagojevich/1360091,blagojevich-department-of-homeland-security-010309.article wrote:
Blagojevich stripped of access to classified federal security information
Gov. Blagojevich's access to classified federal security information was revoked by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security after he was charged last month with trying to sell a Senate seat to the highest bidder, officials confirmed Friday.
Every governor is given such a clearance by Homeland Security to receive briefings on sensitive security information from Homeland Security and other federal agencies such as the FBI, said Amy Kudwa, spokeswoman for Homeland Security.
"Being the subject of a criminal complaint, no matter who you are, is a disqualification," she said.
Gov. Blagojevich's access to classified federal security information was revoked by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security after he was charged last month with trying to sell a Senate seat to the highest bidder, officials confirmed Friday.
Every governor is given such a clearance by Homeland Security to receive briefings on sensitive security information from Homeland Security and other federal agencies such as the FBI, said Amy Kudwa, spokeswoman for Homeland Security.
"Being the subject of a criminal complaint, no matter who you are, is a disqualification," she said.
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