Allegory wrote:
I didn't say we could never prove causation, I said "if we cannot prove causation."
Sure. And I pointed out that the exact same statistics are used whether you're measuring the effect on violent crime as a result of tighter or looser gun control laws. The statistics are just statistics and should be no more or less valid in either direction. You seem to want to toss out crime statistics on the basis of the assumption that we can't prove that they were caused by changes in gun control, but *only* when the changes are ones you don't agree with.
Quote:
It is possible to show that changes in gun law cause changes in gun crime rates.
Please! Not this again! We're talking about all violent crime. Not just gun crime. I already explained why this is a circular and irrelevant argument. Waiting a week and then repeating an argument I've already thoroughly thrashed is kinda weak, don't you think?
Quote:
One simply has to show that at least some element of gun crime changes dependently on the law while independent of other factors. However, your data did not show that. It showed a correlation between gun law and gun crime. Causation could not be proven.
Huh? I'm not sure what you meant to say, but that's not what the link I posted said. It showed that rates of "violent crime" (not just "gun crime) went down dramatically after the passage of a concealed carry law. Not "gun crime". All violent crime.
Look. I know you guys love to parrot the whole "correlation != causation" argument when it's convenient for you, but at the end of the day, if someone predicts that by making X change, we'll get Y result, and then they make X change and Y result occurs, you can whine about how they didn't prove that X caused Y, but you're just making yourselves look dumb when you do it. This is why I question the burden of proof you seem to be placing on my side of the issue.
Just because you can't believe that criminals are less likely to attempt to victimize people they think might be armed doesn't mean that it isn't true. That's really the root of this whole thing. You assume that can't be true, so no amount of evidence is ever going to be good enough to prove to you otherwise. You'll always assume that any corresponding change in violent crime rates must have been caused by something else. Afterall, you *know* that it can't be because (in this case) more people were carrying concealed weapons...
Horse... Cart. Look it up.
Edited, Dec 19th 2008 2:16pm by gbaji