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#102 Oct 27 2008 at 3:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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I do not disagree that as gun ownership increases, so does gun related incidents. Factory accidents rise in proportion to the amount of factories in an area. But this trend does not grow exponentially, but rather linearly. The US is an outlier on the deaths to owners graph, and for effect has been placed on the line drawn. The reason that the US is an outlier in this case is that honestly many states have bad gun control policies. My arguement is that if they were to adequately regulate them this wouldn't be as large of an issue.
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#103 Oct 27 2008 at 3:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Nobby wrote:
TirithRR wrote:
Baron von tarv wrote:
Screenshot



If you leave USA out of the equation, the proportionality is almost linear, with Switzerland having the highest percent household with guns.

You choose to ignore Switzerland in the plot and go dead on to the US because it proves your point. Where as if you where to plot an actual best fit the rise would be less noticeable, and much closer to linear.
Higher Gun ownership directly correlates to deaths through gun crime.

With or without USA or Switzerland, the finding holds.

You were saying?


That the line was drawn to show an exponential growth of intentional gun deaths compared to gun ownership, when it is not nearly as that.

I wasn't saying that there was no increase in numbers. It's obvious that there is. The more chances you provide for something to happen the more often it will happen. That's pretty basic statistics.

An exponential relationship is y = c ^ x (y = intentional deaths, x = Household percentages.)

Screenshot


I'm saying that it is more linear, possibly parabolic. y = c * x^2.

Edit:
The parabolic best fit would probably follow the black line until the point of intersection, and the red line on from that point, making a fairly nice parabola.

Edited, Oct 27th 2008 7:33pm by TirithRR
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#104 Oct 27 2008 at 3:44 PM Rating: Good
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TirithRR wrote:
I wasn't saying that there was no increase in numbers. It's obvious that there is. The more chances you provide for something to happen the more often it will happen. That's pretty basic statistics.
finished?
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#105 Oct 27 2008 at 3:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Nobby wrote:
TirithRR wrote:
I wasn't saying that there was no increase in numbers. It's obvious that there is. The more chances you provide for something to happen the more often it will happen. That's pretty basic statistics.
finished?


What's your problem? Is it the because I wasn't arguing for or against a certain point of view?

I was merely pointing out that regardless of your point of view, stretching stastics to try and prove your point isn't right.

It'd be like saying "Well if you ignore Japan cause they are pussies without a gun toting police force and draw a flat line, you can clearly see that there is no increase at all!".
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#106 Oct 27 2008 at 3:50 PM Rating: Decent
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TirithRR, you realise that the switzerland result is moot because 90% of firearms owned in that country are service weapons owned because they are all required to complete national service and keep personal weapons for a certain period afterwards.

Taking out them the graph is as close to exponential that any statistician would expect a real life data graph to be.
#107 Oct 27 2008 at 3:51 PM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
I also specifically said that children should not be allowed to play with these more dangerous guns.
Why should children be allowed to play with any guns, at all? I know it's a right of every citizen to carry/own a gun, but it's also the right of every citizen to vote but you won't let them do that until they're 18, so why not allow gun use to people only 18 or older? Don't like 18, how about 16, since that's when you're old enough to handle another potentially deadly item, a car.
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#108 Oct 27 2008 at 3:56 PM Rating: Decent
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Baron von tarv wrote:
TirithRR, you realise that the switzerland result is moot because 90% of firearms owned in that country are service weapons owned because they are all required to complete national service and keep personal weapons for a certain period afterwards.


So it's not the fact that the guns are there, but the people who have the guns.
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#109 Oct 27 2008 at 4:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Why should children be allowed to play with any guns, at all? I know it's a right of every citizen to carry/own a gun, but it's also the right of every citizen to vote but you won't let them do that until they're 18, so why not allow gun use to people only 18 or older? Don't like 18, how about 16, since that's when you're old enough to handle another potentially deadly item, a car.


For the same reason that you can ride a bike at a younger age than a 4-wheeler and drive one of those earlier than you can drive a car. Less potential to hurt others as well as slowly scaling up the potential danger level of the item. You can still kill yourself or another with a bike, but it's less of a danger than operating a car, and people still need to learn and get used to the rules of the road to operate one safely.

I agree with requiring 16/18 for semi-automatic/high caliber guns, but have a lower age requirements for less high powered guns.
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#110 Oct 27 2008 at 4:02 PM Rating: Decent
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So it's not the fact that the guns are there, but the people who have the guns.
Right so more people with guns = bad, practically exponentially bad even if you want to argue statistics it's not a flat line which you would expect if guns ownership wasn't the issue.

So remove that problem by banning the ownership guns ecept for those who actually need them and still allow people the freedom to use them by having access to gun clubs from age 16.

Problem solved, I think I said that 20 posts ago.
#111 Oct 27 2008 at 4:12 PM Rating: Decent
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Baron von tarv wrote:
Taking out them the graph is as close to exponential that any statistician would expect a real life data graph to be.


Lol. Only because the trendline was drawn as an exponential graph function. The thing here is that we can't say for sure what a "typical" slope should be. If we take a straight 1-1 ratio (every doubling of guns, doubles the rate of firearm deaths), we end up with about half the nations plotted (which is a pretty small sample already) above the line and about half below. We plot an exponential line, and about 2/3rds of the nations are above the line with about 1/3rd below.

What does that say? No way to know for sure. It means that some nations will have a higher slope than others. That's really it. And interestingly enough, more nations have a higher slope than the US when calculated as an exponential than as a linear trend. What does that mean? Again. That's hard to say except that for some number of factors some nations will have a greater ratio of increased firearms deaths as the percentage of people in the nation own firearms as others.


We can run around in circles trying to find out why (and honestly, it's not a bad thing to study), but to simply assume it's the guns themselves that cause this is silly. If that graph shows us one thing it's that there really isn't a universal correlation between the two.

And simplistic as it sounds, the expression that it's not guns that kill people, but people who kill people would seem to be born out by that data...

Edited, Oct 27th 2008 5:13pm by gbaji
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#112 Oct 27 2008 at 4:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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The death of the child is no more or less tragic than when a child dies on a roller coaster, or while riding in a car. In those cases as well, the parent(s) placed the child in a situation which they knew had an outside chance of being harmful to the child and rolled craps.


Really?

A parent taking an eight year old kid to a *gunshow* is the equivalent of someone taking their kids to school in a car? The decision-making and risk-assessing of both these parents are the same? Are you really that fucking retarded?

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#113 Oct 27 2008 at 4:21 PM Rating: Decent
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the expression that it's not guns that kill people, but people who kill people would seem to be born out by that data...
Not nearly as much as the phrase that accompainies it "people without guns can't shoot other people or themselves."

if the equasion is guns + people = deaths and you can't take people out of the equasion maybe you should take out the guns instead.
#114 Oct 27 2008 at 4:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Baron von tarv wrote:
if the equasion is guns + people = deaths and you can't take people out of the equasion maybe you should take out the guns instead.


But, the equation is Guns + People = Intentional Deaths.

You think that the lack of a gun would have stopped these intentional deaths? (Yes, it would stop an accidental gun death.)

The person with the gun wanted that person to be dead. I don't think removing the gun from the equation would have stopped many of those deaths.
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#115 Oct 27 2008 at 4:33 PM Rating: Decent
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You think that the lack of a gun would have stopped these intentional deaths
Are you honestly trying to say that in a world with no guns people would die of gunshot wounds? Smiley: dubious

per capita wrote:
UK total homicides 1.40 by firearms 0.13
USA total homicides 8.95 by firearms 6.24


#116 Oct 27 2008 at 4:40 PM Rating: Decent
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Baron von tarv wrote:
Quote:
You think that the lack of a gun would have stopped these intentional deaths
Are you honestly trying to say that in a world with no guns people would die of gunshot wounds? Smiley: dubious



No. (Nice try though, not really it's just annoying, seriously, a gunshot wound is the only way to intentionally kill someone?).

I'm saying that is a person wants someone dead, a lack of a gun is not going to stop them.

The statistics in that graph show intentional deaths. Deaths that were meant to happen. The person purposefully pulled the trigger in order to kill the person.
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#117 Oct 27 2008 at 4:46 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm saying that is a person wants someone dead, a lack of a gun is not going to stop them.
Do you have any idea how much harder it is to kill someone with a knife or a blunt instrument compaired to a gun? or how much easier it is to control the situations where those kind of deaths would occur?

Man you're starting to sound like a total berk.

look at the figures above.

Do you think that the UK has a total ban on blunt instruments? the reason that the gap is even wider than the gun figures would allow is because we also restrict knives and other "weapons" making it extremely difficult to access a weapon of opportunity. thus we have lots of assults with broken bones and feww deaths, and for me i'll trade a guy being treated for a broken nose to stop the funeral TYVM!
#118gbaji, Posted: Oct 27 2008 at 5:15 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I didn't say they were equivalent. I said they were equally tragic. I also didn't say where they were driving, and didn't limit it to driving in a car. That was just one example, and it's interesting that you ignored the more relevant roller coaster example when rebutting it.
#119 Oct 27 2008 at 5:23 PM Rating: Excellent
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The point is that parents do make risk-assessments for their children all the time. And sometimes, something happens out of the blue and the child is hurt or killed. Sure. In this particular case, if the parents hadn't taken their kid to that show and/or hadn't let him fire that weapon, he'd be alive. But you can say the exact same thing about any of a hundred decisions made on any given day which could result in the death of a child.


No you can't say it's the exact same thing. An eight year old should not be firing an uzi. End of story. There shouldn't be any risk assessment involved.
#120 Oct 27 2008 at 5:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'd like to point out that in New Zealand we've got loads of guns.

My point?

Only that its not guns that kill people, its Americans with guns, that kill people.

America needs to take a long hard look at itself. Therein lies the answers......
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#121gbaji, Posted: Oct 27 2008 at 5:36 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) What part of my earlier statement that I didn't say they were equivalent now makes you think I'm arguing that they are the "exact same thing"?
#122REDACTED, Posted: Oct 27 2008 at 7:24 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Why isn't this topic called Parental/Supervisor Negligence. Isn't that what really got this kid killed?
#123 Oct 27 2008 at 7:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Maidon wrote:
Why isn't this topic called Parental/Supervisor Negligence. Isn't that what really got this kid killed?

Because changing the name of the incident doesn't make the kid any less dead?
#124 Oct 27 2008 at 7:41 PM Rating: Default
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Maidon wrote:
Why isn't this topic called Parental/Supervisor Negligence. Isn't that what really got this kid killed?


Let me repeat what I said just a bit earlier in the thread:

In this particular case, if the parents hadn't taken their kid to that show and/or hadn't let him fire that weapon, he'd be alive. But you can say the exact same thing about any of a hundred decisions made on any given day which could result in the death of a child.


A parent lets his child ride his bike to the park. Child gets hit by a car. If parent hadn't done that, child would be alive. Parent can't pick up child from school, so child walks home and is adducted along the way. Same deal. A different decision would have prevented the outcome. Parent takes their eyes of their child for 5 seconds in the park and something bad happens.


The point I'm making is that it's bad logic to attack this one particular decision after the fact purely because it resulted in the child's death in this one case. That's not a good enough reason all by itself for exactly the reason that we could use the same argument to ban pretty much *any* activity. Should bikes be banned because if a child uses one it increases their odds of being hurt? Should it be illegal to ever let your child out of your sight until they are 18? And let's make playing in the park illegal for kids as well, since that's probably by far the most common location for kids to be hurt or killed...


There are good arguments for and against any of a number of gun control laws. This particular tragic case isn't one of them, anymore than a case of a child getting killed while riding a bike is a good argument to ban bikes.


Is that more clear?
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#125 Oct 27 2008 at 7:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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TirithRR wrote:
Baron von tarv wrote:
TirithRR, you realise that the switzerland result is moot because 90% of firearms owned in that country are service weapons owned because they are all required to complete national service and keep personal weapons for a certain period afterwards.


So it's not the fact that the guns are there, but the people who have the guns.


In a way. It's certainly a cultural artifact that we feel we deserve, need, and should flagrantly use firearms.

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#126 Oct 27 2008 at 7:46 PM Rating: Good
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And let's make playing in the park illegal for kids as well,


If I thought there was a chance of my boy shooting himself in the face whilst in the park, I'd ban him from going there.
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