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change of tone for mccain?Follow

#52 Oct 13 2008 at 11:14 AM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
I don't think McCain is racist. I do think he's an opportunist who'll allow his campaign to use racism to help his numbers.

I'm not sure why Varrus thinks Lewis should be censured. Maybe he hates Freedom of Speech.
Oh. My. God. Varrus hates freedom?

Does that mean he's a... you know...?
#53 Oct 13 2008 at 12:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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Gallup's now presenting two sets of numbers in their dailies. One is "Likely voters" as determined by the usual factors including "Have you voted before?". If you haven't, the polls don't consider you a likely voter. With this data, Gallup has Obama +7.

Gallup is also presenting the same results without the previous voting screen. The other "likely voter" filters still stand but being a new voter doesn't disqualify you from the results. Without the screen, it's Obama +10.

Given the numbers of new registrations this year and GOTV efforts among youth/minority blocs, I could see an argument for the polls underrepresenting Obama's support. Not overwhelmingly but perhaps significantly.
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#55 Oct 13 2008 at 12:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Jophed,

Quote:
I'm not sure why Varrus thinks Lewis should be censured. Maybe he hates Freedom of Speech.


I thought we were against hate speech these days?



Boy, he really doesn't get it. Smiley: lol
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#57 Oct 13 2008 at 3:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Tare,

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Boy, he really doesn't get it


Baby whatever you're selling I sure don't have.



And you never will. Smiley: smile
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#58 Oct 13 2008 at 3:58 PM Rating: Decent
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Mindel wrote:
knoxsouthy wrote:
Black Democrat Congressman;

Quote:
In a statement issued Saturday, Lewis said McCain and running mate Sarah Palin were "sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse." He noted that Wallace also ran for president.

"George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights," said Lewis, who is black. "Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama."



Like I said any attack on Obama is viewed as racist in nature. And then reported as such.
Good lord, you're obtuse.


Given that even Obama has denounced the statements, I'm not sure what you're arguing here...


What's strange is that McCain is criticized for attacking Obama, and then criticized more for *not* attacking Obama. Oddly, by the same people and at the same time. Perhaps one might just conclude that most of you really aren't non-biased enough to make a valid judgment about this?


Not that I'm any less biased, but at least to give some perspective, here's how I see it. Conservatives are pretty pissed off right now. They're seeing information about Obama flying out there that is not being reported much in the news at all. Sure. Some of that stuff is bogus, but there is enough real and accurate information that seriously questions the integrity and judgment of Obama that many conservatives feel is just plain not getting out to the people as a whole. Meanwhile, every minor detail about Palin or McCain gets front page treatment and massive coverage.

In that context, many conservative feel that Obama is effectively stealing this election. We see poll numbers that indicate that so much of the public has bought into what we consider to be blatant lies and fearmongering. A hint of implied racism if you don't vote for Obama, references to McCain being just like Bush, and outright false statements about the facts of the current economic crisis are all just placed out there for public consumption without any analysis or question, which certainly helps the public believe it must be true. When the media reports an allegation by the Obama camp and does nothing to fact check or follow up on it, this amounts to an endorsement of the statement. Meanwhile, everything said by the McCain camp is either ignored or presented in a negative context, complete with countering statements.


It's sickening to watch and a whole bunch of people are pretty pissed off about it. That's what you're seeing at these rallies. That's why they're upset that McCain hasn't taken the kid gloves off. In their view Obama is just telling boldfaced lies to the public and McCain is being too much of a gentleman to call him to the curb for them. Meanwhile, Obama seems to have no problems bashing McCain on everything, no matter how much of a stretch. Heck. Even when he tried to pull his people back as well, he got just as much boos, but most of the clips of that segment cut out the booing, while most of a similar event with McCain left the boos in (and focused on them in fact). So suddenly the story is McCain upsetting his base with one statement at one rally, but Obama actually did the exact same thing and got the exact same response from his followers.

The lopsided nature of the coverage is bad and just seems to get worse the closer we get to the election. So yeah. Lots of people are pissed. They feel that the only way this information is going to get out there is if McCain stands up and makes the accusations. But that's going to mean he's going to have to get off the fence. Not sure if he can do that though...



In a broader sense, I suspect that McCain is trying to play "good cop" here. There's nothing inherently wrong with that IMO, and it may just work in this situation. He only need to make statements that feed into those being made by his surrogates to get the message across, and that's pretty much what he's doing. Again though, it's hard to say if that's the right approach either. We're looking at a very volatile race. I would not sit there too smug if I were an Obama supporter though. His support really is based on a whole lot of people assuming that the stuff being leveled at him just can't possibly be true.


I also suspect that the "Bradley effect" has less to do with white undecided voters saying they'll vote for a black man, but then not doing so on election day as it does with people of all colors (probably more among black folks though) being over represented in polling data. At the end of the day, if the polls say one thing (or appear to say one thing) and the election results say something else, the problem isn't with the election results, but with the polling. I've posted about this before. Liberals in general tend to place great stock in polling numbers (hence, why Joph manages to post them into just about every thread). Conservatives don't really place much weight in them. As a result, Liberals tend to create the very polling trends they want to see and use to convince themselves (and others) that their "side" is winning. It's a conflict between perception and reality. If you care a whole lot about how something appears, you'll take steps to make it appear the way you want. It's the same with polling. Liberals are more likely to participate in polling than Conservatives. By a good margin.


I only somewhat jokingly commented to a friend of mine when the subject of the recent polling trends came up that after the VP debate finished and Palin not only stood her ground but did very very well, every Conservative in the country breathed a sigh of relief and went back to their normal lives, while every Liberal in the country lept into action to make sure that everyone knew how horrible Palin was, and how evil McCain was, and to make sure that everyone knew (presumably through polling) that the McCain/Palin ticket was doomed no matter what happened in that debate.


I really do think that Liberals react to a sense that their candidate may not be doing as well against his opponent by redoubling their efforts to make it appear as though he's not. Could be wishful thinking of course, but it sure seems to match the trend(s) we've been seeing. It seems like whenever McCain's camp hits a strong note, or makes a good attack, or scores solid points, the polls suddenly jump up for Obama. I think you guys are only lying to yourselves though, but we'll see...
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#59 Oct 13 2008 at 4:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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Obama spokesman wrote:
"Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies. But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 'pals around with terrorists.' "



Yeah, that's a ringing denunciation, all right.

I do like that McCain called Lewis' remarks "beyond the pale", though. Nice touch. Smiley: thumbsup

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#60 Oct 13 2008 at 4:23 PM Rating: Good
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Conservatives are pretty pissed off right now.


Just right now?

Seems to me that you Conservatives are pissed off by default.
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#61 Oct 13 2008 at 4:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
What's strange is that McCain is criticized for attacking Obama, and then criticized more for *not* attacking Obama. Oddly, by the same people and at the same time.
Can't say I've done this.
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We see poll numbers that indicate that so much of the public has bought into what we consider to be blatant lies and fearmongering.
Let's keep this in mind down-post.
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It's sickening to watch and a whole bunch of people are pretty pissed off about it. That's what you're seeing at these rallies.
So people are screaming "Terrorist" and "Kill him" and "Bomb Obama" and calling press cameramen "Nigger" because they don't like the media coverage? Well, that's an interesting defense of those disgusting actions. It's all the liberal media's fault!
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Liberals in general tend to place great stock in polling numbers (hence, why Joph manages to post them into just about every thread). Conservatives don't really place much weight in them.
Which is why you're "sickened" that everyone has apparently bought into the fearmongering and lies, right?

Amusingly enough, you've often enough said "the race is a dead heat!!" and thought the poll numbers were important then. It's really only when the numbers aren't going your way that you discount them (and yet, oddly enough, use them as your excuse as for the behavior of McCain's crowds).
Quote:
Liberals are more likely to participate in polling than Conservatives. By a good margin.
You should let the pollsters know about this. Perhaps they could come up with some sort of weighting system or filter to ensure that they're getting an accurate cross-section. The pollsters need to know about this!
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#62 Oct 13 2008 at 5:32 PM Rating: Decent
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081013/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_lewis

Quote:
WASHINGTON - John McCain said Monday that it was unfair for Rep. John Lewis to compare the negative tone of the Republican presidential campaign to the atmosphere a segregationist fostered in the 1960s.
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McCain suggested that the comments by the Georgia Democrat and veteran of the civil rights movement carry more weight than those of a Virginia Republican Party leader who compared Democratic rival Barack Obama to Sept. 11 mastermind Osama bin Laden.

"This is not just some obscure party official," McCain said in an interview aired by CNN. "And that's what's so totally unacceptable about it."

According to Time magazine, Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick recently told McCain volunteers in the state that Obama and bin Laden "both have friends that bombed the Pentagon."

McCain has repudiated similar past statements about Obama, but did not specifically address Frederick's comments in the interview.

"You have people in political campaigns on the outer most fringe on both ends of the spectrum," McCain said.


Awwwwww. Poor McCainy thinks it's unfair that someone is attacking him. Smiley: frown

Whether or not it's fringe activists on either side, both McCain and Obama would be doing themselves a favor by denouncing these negative remarks. Even if McCain doesn't approve of the messages his super-conservative base says on the trail, or in interviews, by not condemning the remarks, he's tacitly approving them.

Remember the uproar when Obama didn't distance himself from Wright's remarks fast enough?
#63 Oct 13 2008 at 6:19 PM Rating: Decent
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First point. I know that the polls represent a slant towards liberal opinions. But not all conservatives do. The statements that polls are slanted to produce a perception and that this perception "sickens" many conservatives do not in anyway contradict each other and I'm unsure why you felt it was so important to make it appear as though they did.


Jophiel wrote:
You should let the pollsters know about this. Perhaps they could come up with some sort of weighting system or filter to ensure that they're getting an accurate cross-section. The pollsters need to know about this!


Did you read the link about the Bradley effect? You know, the one you linked? It specifically mentioned that when exit polls were assessed they failed to take into account which groups were represented in them. Do you want me to list off the number of times polling data is used in an article without taking into account the actual ratio of dems and republicans in the poll?

How about I just link to an article discussing this

Some relevant quotes:

Quote:
Finally, to be clear, none of these organizations weights by party! Contrary to what I have seen written elsewhere neither CBS/New York Times, ABC/Washington Post,* Gallup/CNN/USA Today, Time, Newsweek, The Pew Research Center and nor the Annenberg National Election Survey weights their results by Party ID. [UPDATE: ABC News does weight its October tracking survey of likely voters by party (but not registerd voters and not surveys prior to October)]



Quote:
Ruy Teixeira and his frequent contributor, Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz, have argued that what is changing is not individual attitudes as much as the willingness of Democrats and Republicans to be interviewed at any given time. Abramowitz, put it this way in an email to me a few days ago:

I would expect that interest in the campaign would correlate with willingness to participate in a political poll. Even if there is a small difference on this between Dems and Reps, it could have a substantial impact on estimates of proportions of Dems and Reps in the electorate due to the very low overall response rates in these polls...Do I know that this is what's going on? No. Is it at least as plausible as a real 10 point GOP advantage in party id as the pre-debate Gallup poll showed? I think so

It certainly seems plausible that low response rates (another topic I need to get to soon) may be working to exaggerate short-term shifts in party identification. It is obviously desireable to try to eliminate any such bias as well as the purely random changes in party identification that occur by chance. The question is, how?


Hey lookit that! Isn't this exactly what I just talked about? I swear I didn't even look for this article or know about it until after you insisted that this sort of thing didn't happen cause pollsters should know better...

Funny that they also realize that the shift has to be in interest and/or aggressiveness on the part of those being polled and *not* actual shifts in voter opinion overall that causes the largest shifts in the polls. But I clearly must just be making this up or something.



There's lots more and it's an interesting read all by itself. I think the point anyone reading this should get is that polling results are not only not terrifically accurate but are rife with "interpretation" at multiple points in the process. It's certainly incorrect to just assume that all polls weight for changes in the demographics of the people they are polling (or weight in any manner other than purely subjective), much less that party ID is always included (or even regularly included).
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#64 Oct 13 2008 at 6:40 PM Rating: Good
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Paskil wrote:
Awwwwww. Poor McCainy thinks it's unfair that someone is attacking him.


No. He thinks it's unfair that when some virtually unknown person involved in a state party effort makes an over-the-line connections and allegations he was attacked viciously for it in the media, despite immediately denouncing it in no uncertain words, but when a prominent elected member of the Democrat party makes similar attacks against him, and Obama's denouncement is "tepid" at best (as someone already pointed out), not only is Obama not held to task, but McCain is actually attacked further for pointing it out.

Um. Massive double standard going on here, don't you think?

Quote:
Whether or not it's fringe activists on either side, both McCain and Obama would be doing themselves a favor by denouncing these negative remarks.


Yup. And McCain did, even though his guy was some unknown state level unelected member of the GOP.

Meanwhile, the attacks going the other way came from a nationally elected Democrat, and the denouncement of him was kinda of a "well, he went over the line, BUT...".

You say they should both do this, but I'm betting this doesn't result in you calling for a more forceful denouncement by Obama, or resignation by the elected official in question. Funny that!

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Even if McCain doesn't approve of the messages his super-conservative base says on the trail, or in interviews, by not condemning the remarks, he's tacitly approving them.


Sigh! Got it backwards sport. McCain has condemned them (and took much heat from his own party for doing so!). Obama's the one who hasn't really done this. Here you are blaming McCain for pointing out that something you yourself believe Obama should do wasn't done, but instead of recognizing that you're continuing to think it's McCain that failed to act responsibly.

Why are you talking about McCain failing to do this? You claim that they should both follow the same rules, but seem to utterly ignore the reality of the situation. The bias is beyond thick here...

Quote:
Remember the uproar when Obama didn't distance himself from Wright's remarks fast enough?


The uproar was that he kept trying to redefine the relationship between himself and Wright (we call that lying). When he couldn't do that anymore, he switched the topic from one of anti-american statements to one of race (which itself essentially takes Wright's position on the issue) gave a speech that didn't address a single question about the issue at hand, and the media fell over themselves about how wonderful it was.


He's doing the same thing with Ayers right now. He's gone from "I barely knew the guy", to "He was someone I met a few times professionally", to "Ok. I worked with him directly for 9 years". I think that in about a week or so he'll finally admit that they shared common political ideas on education. I expect that a few days after that, he'll come out with some pretty speech about how important education is in order to deflect the issue. And I predict that the media will buy it.


The issue with the connections between Obama and Wright/Ayers is completely different. This is not about someone making a statement you disagree with (although Obama has a hard time doing even that, I suspect because he doesn't really disagree with them). It's about actually knowing and agreeing with someone ideologically for a long time, but not wanting people to know this. What's doubly funny is that when Obama was excusing his connection with Wright, his main argument was that this was just a personal relationship, and that the political opinions of his pastor didn't matter since they weren't reflected in his actual political work. Now, with Ayers, he's trying to argue that he just worked with Ayers, but since the relationship wasn't personal it doesn't mean that he's personally in agreement.

Lol... I suspect that when someone works with someone like Ayers and goes to a church pastored by someone like Wright, it's a good bet that he does actually agree with the ideology that both men seem to share. A pretty far left and "angry" ideology that paints white people as to blame for all the countries ills (and a whole bunch more, but that's the nice tip of the iceberg).


It's just staggering that this somehow gets turned around on McCain. No. There's no media bias though! None at all...
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#65 Oct 13 2008 at 6:44 PM Rating: Good
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Any word from the candidates on what their actual 'plans' are?

I'm just hearing a lot of ******** and generalisations atm.
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#66 Oct 13 2008 at 6:46 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Paskil wrote:
Awwwwww. Poor McCainy thinks it's unfair that someone is attacking him.


No. He thinks it's unfair that when some virtually unknown person involved in a state party effort
Just because you don't know the first thing about the Civil Rights Movement doesn't make him unknown.
#67 Oct 13 2008 at 6:55 PM Rating: Good
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Atomicflea wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Paskil wrote:
Awwwwww. Poor McCainy thinks it's unfair that someone is attacking him.


No. He thinks it's unfair that when some virtually unknown person involved in a state party effort
Just because you don't know the first thing about the Civil Rights Movement doesn't make him unknown.


You misunderstood me Flea.

The guy who was virtually unknown was the member of the Virginia Republican party who made an unfair comparison between Obama and OBL. McCain denounced the statement anyway, in no uncertain terms, and demanded that ads the Virginia GOP was running be dropped from the airwaves.


Congressman Lewis is the Civil Rights leader who made the unfair connection between McCain and George Wallace. Obama's response was "tepid" at best in terms of denouncing the statements made by Wallace. He denounced the specific comparison, but then went on to basically say that McCain's deserved it...


That's the double standard I'm talking about. A far more prominent member of the Dem party made the unfair attack, and Obama's denouncement has been far weaker, yet somehow you all manage to still bash McCain over the issue! Wow!!!

Edited, Oct 13th 2008 7:49pm by gbaji
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#68 Oct 13 2008 at 6:58 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
First point. I know that the polls represent a slant towards liberal opinions. But not all conservatives do. The statements that polls are slanted to produce a perception and that this perception "sickens" many conservatives do not in anyway contradict each other and I'm unsure why you felt it was so important to make it appear as though they did.
gbaji previously wrote:
Liberals in general tend to place great stock in polling numbers [...] Conservatives don't really place much weight in them.
You didn't suggest that only a certain percentage of conservatives "don't place much weight" into the polls.
Quote:
How about I just link to an article discussing this
Quote:
Finally, to be clear, none of these organizations weights by party!
Or how about you find an article that wasn't written four years ago? Several pollsters now weigh by party, Rasmussen being the predominant example. Rasmussen not only weighs for party but adjusts their weights weekly and announces the new ones based on party affiliations. Gallup & SurveyUSA don't adjust for weight but their numbers are coming in close to Rasmussen's.

Edited, Oct 13th 2008 9:51pm by Jophiel
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#69 Oct 13 2008 at 7:08 PM Rating: Default
Their both fronts who control nothing.

Let Hicks explain.
#70 Oct 13 2008 at 7:21 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
First point. I know that the polls represent a slant towards liberal opinions. But not all conservatives do. The statements that polls are slanted to produce a perception and that this perception "sickens" many conservatives do not in anyway contradict each other and I'm unsure why you felt it was so important to make it appear as though they did.
gbaji previously wrote:
Liberals in general tend to place great stock in polling numbers [...] Conservatives don't really place much weight in them.
You didn't suggest that only a certain percentage of conservatives "don't place much weight" into the polls.


That I was talking about a statistical percentage was assumed Joph. Don't be deliberately dense. Conservatives was used as a contrast to "Liberals in general". Did I have to repeat the whole phrase for you to get it? Sheesh!


Wow. Talk about arguing about the words while missing the message entirely? You're picking up this bad habit from Smash I guess.



Quote:
Or how about you find an article that wasn't written four years ago? Several pollsters now weigh by party, Rasmussen being the predominant example. Rasmussen not only weighs for party but adjusts their weights weekly and announces the new ones based on party affiliations. Gallup & SurveyUSA don't adjust for weight but their numbers are coming in close to Rasmussen's.


How about you do? I'd also point out that the article said that Rasmussen does, so what's changed? Can you show that more pollsters do this? Heck. Can you show that they do it right?


The larger point, which you'd get if you'd read the entire series of articles, is that the weights themselves can be arbitrary and misleading. It isn't about whether a given poll does weight for party affiliation or not, but how/why they do so. The Rasmussen weighting system was actually kinda panned in the article. You'd know this if you'd bothered to read it though...


You can create just as much artificial shift by weighting for party as you do by not.
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#71 Oct 13 2008 at 7:36 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
You say they should both do this, but I'm betting this doesn't result in you calling for a more forceful denouncement by Obama, or resignation by the elected official in question. Funny that!



Well, I think Obama gets a few gimmes in this case. Most of the news stories circulating over the last week have had to do with the attacks McCain's side has been laying on Obama. Notice that Biden hasn't been calling attention to McCain's connections to shady groups? He's pretty much just been offering the 'slander' and 'low-blow' defense. What about Palin? Hmmmm.
#72 Oct 13 2008 at 8:11 PM Rating: Default
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8wgIPZj0HA at the end it shows kennedy in graphic detail getting shot.
#73 Oct 13 2008 at 8:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
That I was talking about a statistical percentage was assumed Joph.
Was it safe to assume that your "statistical percentage" was significantly large? Because if it is, that kind of makes the whole "They're all mad about them there polls!" argument pretty pointless. Or should I assume that the majority of conservatives DO follow the polls and that your "conservatives don't place much weight" statment was poorly made since it only refers to a definate minority?
Quote:
How about you do?
I'm not the one vested in trying to prove that the polls are meaningless.
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#74 Oct 13 2008 at 8:30 PM Rating: Good
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Sometimes one side gets more negative coverage because they deserve it. Sometimes heated comments don't get denounced because they're true. Only simpletons expect it to always be equal. "Fair" coverage means telling the goddamn truth, not pandering to morons.





Edited, Oct 13th 2008 11:29pm by trickybeck
#75 Oct 14 2008 at 6:01 AM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
In that context, many conservative feel that Obama is effectively stealing this election.

That would be a refreshing change of pace. And we wouldn't even have to rig the voting machines!
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