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#27 Sep 29 2008 at 3:34 PM Rating: Good
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MDenham wrote:
This being the House that was voting, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "all of them".

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#28 Sep 29 2008 at 4:12 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
They know that the bill as written is very unpopular.
Rasmussen wrote:
As Congress prepares to vote on a proposed economic rescue plan, opposition to the measure has declined significantly. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey conducted Sunday found that 33% of Likely Voters now favor the plan while 32% are opposed and 35% are not sure.

For proponents of the legislation, that’s a significant improvement. On Friday, just 24% of voters had supported the plan while 50% were opposed. Supporters of the legislation argue the plan to buy up bad mortgage debt from private firms is the surest way to free up credit for all Americans.


Ah. So McCain was clearly right to stop the first version of the Bill and insist on something better, right?

How much you want to bet that by tomorrow, those numbers will show even more people supporting passage of the latest version of the bill? It's really meaningless. We can't say whether those numbers are changing because more people support each new version of the bill more than the last one, or if they're just more desperate for "any" bill that might fix things.

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While voters are unsure about the particular plan agreed to by Congress and the Administration, 49% say it’s Very Important that some kind of plan be implemented. Another 29% say it’s Somewhat Important to do so.


Yup. Expect those numbers to shift over time as well. Again. It doesn't tell us how voters will feel about this a month from now. It easy to get those kind of poll results when you're right in the middle of a crisis. It's the "fast sell" writ large. The unpopularity level of anything potentially costing taxpayers 700 Billion dollars will have an effect come election day though. If they think they got shafted because of said fast sell, they'll be out for blood, and the Dems didn't want it to be too clear that they were the prime architects of the shaft if that should happen.

You can quote current poll numbers all you want. The fact that the Dems couldn't/wouldn't pass this all on their own speaks volumes about how they feel it would have been perceived.

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Sitting on this and letting it get worse will be poison to the Republicans. They already have a 700+ drop in the Dow pinned to them.


Why on them? Don't the Dems have a majority in both houses? How on earth can the Republicans be at fault for this bill failing to pass? If the Dems really felt it was as politically important for this bill to pass as you seem to think, they'd have passed it. Clearly, the fear that taking the sole affirmative position on this bailout would cost them more than it would help them was the key factor here.


The behavior of the House Democrats is basically the best evidence that your assertion is incorrect. If you were right, they would have simply passed the bill and taken credit for saving the economy. Clearly, they don't think that the pro's outweigh the con's of doing that. Which means that even the Dems believe that the public will view taking more time (even at the expense of Wall Street) to pass a bill that both sides can agree on more positively than one party driving the issue on their own. Or, they're just afraid to take a position at all, which is entirely possible.

Either case puts the power of the situation in the GOP's hands. They now know that the Dems wont pass a bill without them, so they can remove any poison pills that the Dems want to stick in. Better yet, down the line, the Republicans can claim credit for making the plan work and saving the taxpayers money, while the Dems will still look like the party that just wanted to throw good money after bad and spend their way out of the problem.

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Perhaps the most pathetic thing I've heard today was Boehner saying that the GOP lost its votes because Pelosi's speech was "too partisan". Excellent of the House Republicans to drag out the worst financial crisis in recent history because their poor widdle feeling were hurt by a speech. My 401(k) thanks them for having fragile hearts of glass that crack when Pelosi says the wrong words


Yeah. His specific words weren't too brilliant IMO. But it fits into the main objective here. They want to get a true bi-partisan solution. It's a bit of rhetoric, but the play by the GOP is that the Dems attempted to ram a bad bill through while playing on the publics fear. That's what the whole meeting collapse bit on Friday was about. This is just the next step in that process. You show that even know, in the midst of an economic crisis, the Democrats are still trying to inject partisan language into the issue. Sure. He's basically trying to score points by bashing Pelosi for trying to score points, but that's politics, right?

The main issue is that the GOP really does have the high hand here and they know it. The Dems were trying to push their ideal bill through before anyone could stop to think. They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar and now they're having to pay the piper on it. The US economy will survive long enough for us to implement the right solution and both parties apparently do believe that the voters will care more about that solution being "right" and more importantly "bi-partisan" (so both parties take equal blame really) than they will about it coming quickly.


IMO, the political cost of being perceived as the party that's holding up the bill will be more than outweighed by the benefit of being perceived as the party that made sure that the bill was as well made as possible.

Edited, Sep 29th 2008 5:06pm by gbaji
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#29 Sep 29 2008 at 4:39 PM Rating: Good
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Been following the usual liberal sites, when I found this little fact.

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Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout

This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.

By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.


So did they vote because of something Nancy said, or to protect their chances of re-election?
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#30 Sep 29 2008 at 5:14 PM Rating: Default
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ElneClare wrote:
So did they vote because of something Nancy said, or to protect their chances of re-election?


I'd say the latter. Both sides are going to toss rhetoric out there, but what I've been trying to say all along is that both parties believed that passing that bill in its current form would hurt them more than help them. The time for a rush of the bill has passed. Had the Dems succeeded in getting the first draft pushed through last week, there would not have been much backlash I think. But since the GOP pushed back, now both sides are under pressure to come up with something that the voters are going to view as "better" than the original version (less costly up front at least).


Certainly, the original pressure was most on the GOP, since their supporters are most likely to dislike any form of government bailout. But now, the Dems are pretty much in the hotseat as well. It's why I've referred to the failure to pass today's bill as the Dems "blinking". They were initially trying to just rush the whole thing and give the impression that they were a united front, presumably hoping this would pressure the GOP to go along so as not to be seen as irrelevant to the solution. By failing to pass the bill, it shows that they aren't immune (or don't think they are immune) to negative results from pushing a big bailout bill through. Enough that they don't want to be seen as the sole party doing it.

If they really thought that they'd get more credit than blame, they'd have lept at the opportunity to win on purely partisan lines. Imagine the coup if the Dems used their majority to push it through against GOP opposition and it was viewed as a smashing success that saved the nations economy. They'd be able to ride that to a huge win next month. As I've said repeatedly, the fact that they didn't shows that they know that no matter whether the bill works or not, it will be viewed unfavorably by voters. The only way it works is if both parties are "blamed" for it equally. The Democrats simply wont pass it unless enough Republicans go along to make it appear bi-partisan.
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#31 Sep 29 2008 at 5:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Don't the Dems have a majority in both houses? How on earth can the Republicans be at fault for this bill failing to pass?
It makes the GOP leadership look pathetic. Bush, McCain, Boehner, Blunt, etc all supported and asked for support for this bill. They failed to pull it off. They were supposed to have 75 votes lined up. They failed to produce them. McCain was supposed to forge a bipartisan resolve from his party. Remember you lauding his unflagging committment and hard work (in between interviews with all the major networks... heh) at getting both parties together and become Hero of the Bill? He failed at it.

The best defense they have for their failure is that Pelosi's speech hurt their feelings and they decided that a fit of pique was more important than helping our nation.
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His specific words weren't too brilliant IMO.
No, the fact that twelve or eighteen House Republicans decided to sit in the corner and cry rather than vote for the bill wasn't too brilliant. This wasn't a problem of "specific wording" -- this was a problem with people who had committed to the bill throwing a hissy fit because some grandmother said some stuff to put them in a snit.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#32 Sep 29 2008 at 5:28 PM Rating: Decent
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So did they vote because of something Nancy said, or to protect their chances of re-election?


I think it was a combo of both. I think the Republican's who changed their votes were reluctant to vote for the bill in the first place. I don't know if it was her aim or not, but her speech definitley pissed off most of the House Repubs.

I wouldn't put it past her to try and sink the bill in such a way, since now Obama will get to milk the crisis for at least 1 more week AND republicans will get blame from the media.
#33 Sep 29 2008 at 5:39 PM Rating: Excellent
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MDenham wrote:
This being the House that was voting, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "all of them".
Yeah, I keep hearing "Was rejected by House members, many of whom are up for re-election this year" in media reports and laugh. Which ones aren't up for re-election?

I'm sure they mean that many face tough fights this year for re-election but that's not what they're saying.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#34 Sep 29 2008 at 5:50 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Don't the Dems have a majority in both houses? How on earth can the Republicans be at fault for this bill failing to pass?
It makes the GOP leadership look pathetic. Bush, McCain, Boehner, Blunt, etc all supported and asked for support for this bill. They failed to pull it off.


They failed more than the Democrat leadership did?

I'm not seeing it. They said they'd work out a bi-partisan compromise bill. The one that went before the house clearly wasn't good enough. They'll simply roll up their sleeves and try again. Pelosi's comments were just a bit of icing that made it easier for them to explain why it didn't pass. I suspect that the partisanship went far deeper than just some comments in a speech...

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They were supposed to have 75 votes lined up. They failed to produce them. McCain was supposed to forge a bipartisan resolve from his party.


Yes. And how many votes did Pelosi line up?

Let me ask another pointed question: How many Dem votes were shifted from Yay to Nay, one for one as each Gop vote was lined up? And how many of those were in those contested districts?

Stop and think about that and why it's significant. Then go look at the vote totals. It doesn't take a degree in rocket science to figure out what happened to that vote.

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Remember you lauding his unflagging committment and hard work (in between interviews with all the major networks... heh) at getting both parties together and become Hero of the Bill? He failed at it.


*cough* What part of "bi-partisan" makes you blame just one party when it fails Joph? Isn't that the funniest thing? No. Really!

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The best defense they have for their failure is that Pelosi's speech hurt their feelings and they decided that a fit of pique was more important than helping our nation.


I would assume that Pelosi's speech was just the visible tip of a much larger partisan iceberg that sank that version of the bill.


Look. All the GOP has to do is keep saying that the Democrats are refusing to deal fairly and they win. As you pointed out, they've already laid out the "we're going to reach a bi-partisan agreement" groundwork. So, if any given attempt fails, the assumption is that they failed to reach said "bi-partisan" agreement. Which includes the assumption that Democrats refused to do their part as well.

Pelosi's blatantly partisan comments just made that a much more easy argument to make is all. I'll admit that I would have maybe worded it differently and put more focus on partisan actions of opposition within the house Democrat membership itself instead of just Pelosi, but it's somewhat easy to armchair quarterback after the fact. In any case, in the long run it's still going to look like the GOP is trying to make a deal that the public views very unfavorably "better" and the Democrats are not budging on the very things that the public doesn't like about the deal.


The GOP has already cast itself in the role of the ones protecting the taxpayer here. Each delay only makes the Dems look more like they really just want to take our dollars out of our pockets to pay for the mistakes of others. I just really do think that the Dems are playing a losing hand on this one and it'll only get worse for them the longer this drags out.


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this was a problem with people who had committed to the bill throwing a hissy fit because some grandmother said some stuff to put them in a snit.



Again. See my comment about Dems pulling out one for one. Politics can be a very dirty game...

Edited, Sep 29th 2008 6:45pm by gbaji
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#35 Sep 29 2008 at 5:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
MDenham wrote:
This being the House that was voting, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "all of them".
Yeah, I keep hearing "Was rejected by House members, many of whom are up for re-election this year" in media reports and laugh. Which ones aren't up for re-election?

I'm sure they mean that many face tough fights this year for re-election but that's not what they're saying.


Yeah. What's also funny is that I've gotten so used to automatically translating that in my head, I didn't even notice the earlier comment's literal meaning.


Is it sad when you've gotten so used to media-speak that you don't even notice it anymore? Sigh...
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King Nobby wrote:
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#36 Sep 29 2008 at 6:22 PM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
MDenham wrote:
This being the House that was voting, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "all of them".
Yeah, I keep hearing "Was rejected by House members, many of whom are up for re-election this year" in media reports and laugh. Which ones aren't up for re-election?

I'm sure they mean that many face tough fights this year for re-election but that's not what they're saying.


I'm fairly sure what they mean is that some representatives are retiring from the house instead of running for another term.
#37 Sep 29 2008 at 7:51 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
*cough* What part of "bi-partisan" makes you blame just one party when it fails Joph? Isn't that the funniest thing? No. Really!
The votes were lined up before the vote was called. The GOP leaders promised their 75 votes. There was a bipartisan consensus in that both sides had agreed to how many votes they were going to produce. That the GOP failed to live up to their end of the bargin was not the fault of the House Democrats.

Pelosi & Hoyer got some 60% of the Democrats on board. Bush, McCain, Boehner and Blunt couldn't accomplish 30% and failed to produce what they promised. I think it's pretty obvious where the lacking was. Crying "bipartisan!" doesn't make it the other guy's fault that your actions were impotent.

Edited, Sep 29th 2008 10:52pm by Jophiel
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#38 Sep 29 2008 at 8:43 PM Rating: Default
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#39 Sep 30 2008 at 12:13 AM Rating: Decent
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Well the 700 bill would only help if it was decided on quickly, discussing it again after wall street dropped near 700 points is quite useless. Theyd better go look for a plan B.

Edited, Sep 30th 2008 10:07am by Sjans
#40 Sep 30 2008 at 2:34 AM Rating: Good
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Sadly, I live in a gerrymandered district here in NC that has had a democrat rep since the civil war. BUT Mike McIntyre is one the most conservative, if you can call it that, democrats in washington.

He voted No. I was proud of him for that.

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#42 Sep 30 2008 at 5:21 AM Rating: Excellent
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Wonder why the Demcrats who voted no did so? Exactly how many of them are up for re-election?

On a percentage basis, the exact same as the Republicans.
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#43 Sep 30 2008 at 5:33 AM Rating: Good
knoxsouthy wrote:
Jophed,

Quote:
Pelosi & Hoyer got some 60% of the Democrats on board. Bush, McCain, Boehner and Blunt couldn't accomplish 30% and failed to produce what they promised. I think it's pretty obvious where the lacking was. Crying "bipartisan!" doesn't make it the other guy's fault that your actions were impotent.


Wonder why the Demcrats who voted no did so? Exactly how many of them are up for re-election?

Hmm, how many representatives are up for reelection this year? That's a puzzler! Smiley: rolleyes
#44 Sep 30 2008 at 5:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Wonder why the Demcrats who voted no did so? Exactly how many of them are up for re-election?
Exactly. Thanks for playing.

It was widely known that, even if it what the economy needs, it'd be an unpopular bill. Hence the importance of getting your people to the table and drumming up the votes for passage. No one puts a bill like this on the floor unless the leaders supporting it have talked to their Congresscritters, done the math and are sure it'll make the cut. Pelosi, Hoyer & Clyburn got the votes they promised to get. Boehner & Blunt promised 75 votes and claimed they had them. They didn't. Boehner failed as leader and Blunt failed as whip when they didn't produce. They couldn't provide their part of the bargin.

Blaming the Democrats who provided their promised votes is like agreeing to meet me in Indianapolis, stopping in Lexington and then saying it's really my fault that I didn't drive all the way to Kentucky.

Edited, Sep 30th 2008 8:40am by Jophiel
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#45 Sep 30 2008 at 5:49 AM Rating: Decent
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I would just like to thank Jophiel and Obama, I clicked on his link and registered to vote.
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#46 Sep 30 2008 at 5:58 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
I would just like to thank Jophiel and Obama, I clicked on his link and registered to vote.
Awesome! Now move to Ohio Smiley: laugh
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#47 Sep 30 2008 at 6:02 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Debalic wrote:
I would just like to thank Jophiel and Obama, I clicked on his link and registered to vote.
Awesome! Now move to Ohio Smiley: laugh

*sigh* but then I'd have to fill out the registration form *again*!

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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#48 Sep 30 2008 at 6:05 AM Rating: Excellent
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My laugh for the day came from the Obama campaign.
The e-mail I got from Camp Obama wrote:
Jophiel --

I've never asked you to make a donation before.

But early voting has begun in eight states -- including Ohio as of today -- and I'm about to make some major decisions about our ground game based on the resources we have on hand...
Smiley: dubious Smiley: laugh
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#49 Sep 30 2008 at 6:13 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
My laugh for the day came from the Obama campaign.
The e-mail I got from Camp Obama wrote:
Jophiel --

I've never asked you to make a donation before.

But early voting has begun in eight states -- including Ohio as of today -- and I'm about to make some major decisions about our ground game based on the resources we have on hand...
Smiley: dubious Smiley: laugh


haha, yeah, I know...I was like "never? or only 2 or 3 times a day?"

Nexa
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#50 Sep 30 2008 at 12:36 PM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
I would just like to thank Jophiel and Obama, I clicked on his link and registered to vote.

I mailed in my registration for a new county last month. Obama's website still has my old info, but the County website is up to date.

#51gbaji, Posted: Sep 30 2008 at 1:15 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Er. Except the Dems *didn't* provide their promised votes either. And they didn't exactly make it easy on Republicans to boot. The Dems are acting like a child who screams and takes all the toys away from the other kids and then wonders why no one is playing with them...
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