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#77 Sep 30 2008 at 10:03 AM Rating: Excellent
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Well I'm extremely relieved to see things bouncing back today!! I was starting to worry that time had run out completely.
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#78 Sep 30 2008 at 10:06 AM Rating: Good
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Pikko wrote:
Well I'm extremely relieved to see things bouncing back today!! I was starting to worry that time had run out completely.
Yeah the Dow has gained almost half the losses from yesterday. Its a holding pattern though, methinks. They're still waiting to see if this bailout will happen in another form.
#79 Sep 30 2008 at 11:19 AM Rating: Decent
gbaji wrote:

The correct response is to allow those who took out loans they couldn't afford to default on them and be foreclosed (yes. Losing their homes). You have the government back the foreclosure value of the properties, perhaps even to the extent of buying the properties (but not the banks or lenders themselves) at a normal market rate. That way the lenders don't suffer further costs resulting from holding a ton of properties that they can't sell and can't get payments on. As property values recover, the government can sell back its stake in the mortgages it owns, possibly even at an overall profit (almost certainly at one in fact), and then use that to pay back the initial cost of the whole thing.


If that would fix the current crisis, that would be fine by me. My current understanding of the crisis is that it would not provide the capital to the banks.
Basically, my understanding is that the lenders need more money then that.
That is why people are talking about buying the mortgage backed securities directly (and not individual mortgages directly) and it is unknown exactly what they will have to pay for them.

My central question is as follows: so the US government is going to buy the bad assets of these companies, infusing them with cash, to allow the market to continue to function. Who is lending to the US government? If they have money, why don't they just buy shares directly in these companies after a dramatic fall in stock price (I assume new stock must be issued to raise new capital)?
#80 Sep 30 2008 at 11:21 AM Rating: Good
gbaji wrote:
yossarian wrote:
knoxsouthy wrote:
Yossarian,

Quote:
I'm virtually certain that this crisis could be ended by appropriate action via allowing judges to renegotiate loan rates.


My credit is better than it was when I first bought this house over five years ago and I've never missed, or been late on a payment. Shouldn't I be allowed to have these judges go back to when I first bought the house and renegotiate my loan for a better rate retroactively; or should this just be for those who took out mortgages on houses they knew they couldn't afford?



Of course everyone would be able to renegotiate.


Yes. Because the solution to a financial crisis in which banks owe more money on the loans they've given out then they're getting in interest rates on those loans is to allow everyone who has a loan from them to renegotiate better terms...


That was sarcasm just in case you missed it. What part of "that's the exact wrong thing to do" did you not get when I said it earlier?


Ah. I did not miss it. I'm not saying that this is the right thing to do. I'm simply saying it would work, whereas your detailed suggestion would not, see above, at least within my understanding of the crisis.

Please try to read my posts. I tire of repeating myself for the benefit of your rather limited abilities.

Sincerely

yossarian
#81 Sep 30 2008 at 11:33 AM Rating: Excellent
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Nobby :

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The British Online Media had this observation regarding Mr Obama and Ms Palin.

Well we do need some counterpoint to the Fox News version of events.


Obama :

Quote:
DEMOCRATIC candidate Barak Obama last night claimed he was quoted out of context after describing Governor Sarah Palin as a 'creationist psycho *****'.

'Less fuckable than a dead pig' He dismissed the 'phoney outrage' of the Republican camp, insisting the remark was not intended to do anything other than draw attention to Governor Palin's insane beliefs and ugly, *****-like qualities.



Smiley: lol Smiley: lol
Smiley: lol Smiley: lol

Thats what I miss about the UK.

Good honest up-front journalism, unafraid to bring up the facts and court controversy.
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#82gbaji, Posted: Sep 30 2008 at 12:10 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Key points. The issue was split on party lines. Republicans favored it. Democrats opposed it. Frank told one of the biggest lies of the century but because the issue had to do with "poor people", everyone assumed he was right and the big bad Republicans were wrong.
#83 Sep 30 2008 at 12:22 PM Rating: Default
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yossarian wrote:
gbaji wrote:

The correct response is to allow those who took out loans they couldn't afford to default on them and be foreclosed (yes. Losing their homes). You have the government back the foreclosure value of the properties, perhaps even to the extent of buying the properties (but not the banks or lenders themselves) at a normal market rate. That way the lenders don't suffer further costs resulting from holding a ton of properties that they can't sell and can't get payments on. As property values recover, the government can sell back its stake in the mortgages it owns, possibly even at an overall profit (almost certainly at one in fact), and then use that to pay back the initial cost of the whole thing.


If that would fix the current crisis, that would be fine by me. My current understanding of the crisis is that it would not provide the capital to the banks.


Yes it would. The problem is that the banks leverage their ability to take out loans themselves on the assumption that the loans they have hold a certain value. What happened is that the number of foreclosures exceeded the amount of actual cash in the system. By insuring the properties themselves (ie: buying the foreclosed properties rather than the banks) the government provides that liquidity into the market, but only at exactly the rate it's needed. It's an automatic drip system rather than just turning on the garden hose and spraying water around.

What this means is that the lenders can actually get the value of the paper of a mortgage when/if they foreclose on the property. Right now, they're sitting around with pieces of paper with numbers on them, but no one will buy the properties, meaning the value of the paper is essentially "zero". That's really the core problem with the market right now. Fix that one thing, and the rest recovers.


You don't need to toss money at the banks. Just insure the paper they're holding. Let them know that it's worth the number printed on it, and the banks will be able to trade, buy, and sell those properties.


Quote:
Basically, my understanding is that the lenders need more money then that. That is why people are talking about buying the mortgage backed securities directly (and not individual mortgages directly) and it is unknown exactly what they will have to pay for them.


That's another way to do it. I'd start by just insuring the paper first though. It's a smarter approach. More importantly, while it makes the government a property owner (which isn't a real change if you stop and think about it), it does not put the government in the business of real estate or banking directly.


Quote:
My central question is as follows: so the US government is going to buy the bad assets of these companies, infusing them with cash, to allow the market to continue to function. Who is lending to the US government? If they have money, why don't they just buy shares directly in these companies after a dramatic fall in stock price (I assume new stock must be issued to raise new capital)?



Because buying shares only buys the company. That's nice and all, but the company doesn't actually gain any operating capital from that. It just prevents them from disappearing from the investment market. That's what you do if you want the government to control the industry. It's *not* what you do if you want the government to help the industry recover on its own.


The government can borrow the amount of money we're talking about easily. And paying it back isn't actually that problematic either. If the process of securing the paper works (and it almost certainly will), the property values will come back up on their own. The current free fall is being caused by the perceived loss of value in the market. At this point, it's a matter of faith in the market itself. Knowing that the paper will have value all by itself encourages the market to recover. And when that happens, the government can gradually sell back what is today "bad debt" over time at a profit. It's not that the properties themselves are "bad", but that too many of them were sold to people who couldn't pay for them.


The companies that lost a lot of money will still have lost a lot of money, but it will prevent further damage. That's the real objective here, right?
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#84 Sep 30 2008 at 12:23 PM Rating: Decent
you people miss the whole point of free market. gbaji and knocksouth included.

washington does not need to do ANYTHING. the market will correct itself all by itself.

1. foreclosures. keep people in their home? why? why would anyone but the bank think keeping someone in a home that they cant afford be a good idea? why would anyone think keeping someone in a home they owe 400,000 dollars on when its worth 250,000 would be in any way GOOD for either the person in the home or someone who might want to buy it?

let it go. stop making payments. it will take a good 90 days before you get the boot. thats 3 months worth of payments you can save for the first, last, and security on rental housing.

the house goes back to the bank that made the BAD LOAN, and THEY EAT the rewards of their efforts. eventually, the house comes back on the market and sells for what the market.....us.....can afford. its true value. or the bank goes bellie up because they made a whole lot of bad loans and its assets get bought by another bank. in which case, the house eventually again ends up on the market and sells for its true value.

2. 401k plans. if you want security, buy bonds or cds. split them between banks in accounts worth 100,000 or less so your assets are 100 percent insured. if you are going to play in the market for the FAT LOOT, guess what, sometimes you LOOSE. this is one of those times. and even now, you still have 100k insured of those assets if you were stupid enough to put them all into one account to begine with. they will go back up AFTER the market burns off all the artifical FAT from the tons of borrowed money shoved into it since the 2000 tech stock bust.

3. home loans. yes, the banks are nutting up. rent for a year or two then try again.

4. car loans. guess what? ford WANTS you to drive their cars. even of the banks wont loan you the money, you can bet ford will even if they have to create their own finiance company......oh wait.....they ALREADY HAVE ONE. i promise you, you will be able to finance a car with no more difficulty than you experienced 2 years ago.

5. bussiness loans. by by. if your bussines was so tight that you had to borrow money to meet payroll, you DESERVE to go OUT OF BUSSINESS. i promise you, supply and demand will fill the gap you leave like taking a finger out of a bucket of water. if BF Goodrich goes bellie up and closses all of theri tire stores, bobs rubber co, a mom and pop start up will jump right in and start making tires and selling them for LESS MONEY becuase they wont have the stupendious overhead you had. demand will create bussiness where big corperations fall nad leave gaps where money can be made.

6. airlines. by by. but dont worry, some small company will buy those planes at a DISCOUNT from the auction block and be flying them within a year of them going bellie up. probably, again, at a PROFIT because they will be smarter about creating stupendious overhead.

7. lost jobs. your company sucked. too much overhead, too little liquid cash, too many fat CEOs sucking up the profits like they suck on those fat stogies at the mens club after hours. find another one. i hear there is a start up airline and a mom and pop tire manufacturer looking for some good workers.

8. the people. 90 percent of the people in this country dont have over 100k in assets sitting in a bank. 90 percent of the people in this country wont loose a dime if ALL of the banks went bellie up. they might have to make a career change to a better run company, but they are not going to loose theie lifes savings.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

so why the bail out?

so the fat CEOs who have been sucking the profits out of YOUR POCKET can keep sucking up profits. its to save those who have. not the other 90 percent of us who have little to nothing.

LET IT FALL. the market will take care of us as it has always done. we are industrious. and necessity os the mother of al invention, inclusing filling gaps left by closed bussiness.

repubs want a free market. dems want a free market. lets have a free market.

Edited, Sep 30th 2008 4:18pm by shadowrelm
#85gbaji, Posted: Sep 30 2008 at 4:48 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Yes Shadow. Because 18th century economic concepts are completely valid...
#86 Oct 01 2008 at 2:24 AM Rating: Excellent
Gbaji, I don't mean to wake you up from your alternate reality where everything is black and white, but you're wrong on almost every single front.

The CRA applies only to member banks of the Federal Reserve. The Act itself states that loans must be made within good lending standards, and more importantly, does not require the loosening of underwriting criteria. Studies have shown time and time again that banks that are subject to the Community Reinvestment Act were much less likely to originate high cost mortgage loans for the purchase of an owner-occupied home than other types of lenders. In fact, until recently, the GSEs were doing really well, with a robust market and with sound lending.

The problem started when Wall Street banks that were not bound by the CRA decided to enter this market and profit from it. This was known as "predatory lending". This is when things started going wrong. There's a lot more to it than that, but here are a few figures to show that CRA did not cause the bubble and subsequent crash:

- CRA banks are 66% less likely than other lenders to make a high cost loan and 58% less likely than other lenders to originate high cost loans to low and moderate income borrowers.

- CRA banks are twice as likely as other lenders to retain originated loans in their portfolio. The process of loan originators selling off mortgages and servicing rights, is a major contributor to the weakening of underwriting standards.

This CRA stuff is fairy tales. I understand you guys are scraping the bottom of the barrel in order to demonstrate that all of this is anyone's fault by the Republicans, but it's an outright lie. Either that, or a complete and willfull ignorance of the facts. Read the studies I linked above.

I don't think the blame, if we have to apportion blame, can be placed on a political party. The "problem" was the incestous relationship of the financial sectors. Regualtors being employed by the people they were meant to regulate, for one. Risk-assessment systems that fundamentally flawed and short-sighted. A culture of short-term profit above long-term stability. And obviously, a system that rewarded short-term gains and greed to such an incredible extent (see bonuses and salaries). The system as a whole was flawed, and it's not the first time we see a bubble created by specualtors and the imperative of short-term profits explode, leaving ordinary people with a huge debt to pay.

What can be said, though, is that both political parties had a vested interest in keeping that system going. The Republicans were especially keen to prevent regulation or oversight of that system, and it's impossible to deny that whenever someone suggested stricter oversight or regulation, they were shouted down as "socialist" or "pinkos" or whatever. We were all told that the system didn't need oversight, or regulation, and that such measures would be counter-productive. If the recent events have shown anything, it's that market forces cannot produce long-term sustainability if left all alone, without regulation or supervision. Market forces are not "magic". Not only that, but the Republicans have been in charge of the US for the last 8 years, or more if you count the Rep Congress under Clinton. They did nothing to address this problem, probably because they had no clue as to what was happening. It's either ignorance, blind faith, or carelessness. As the governing party, they cannot be blameless.

It's not exclusively their fault, obviously, but with power comes responsibility, and they didn't do anything to address this incoming crisis. So, for once, grow some balls. Stop blaming CRAs or poor people, and admit that this stuff happened under your watch, and that you simply didn't see it coming.
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#87REDACTED, Posted: Oct 01 2008 at 5:17 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) During the Clinton administration, Congress was majority republican. The last eight years saw the majority Democrat. Seems like they both had a fair share of the power, but you still try to blame republicans, or at least say it's mostly their fault. This whold scam is the most bipartisan thing to come out of our government. I don't think it can be limited to blaming parties. The sad thing is, everyone seems to concur that more government is the solution.
#88 Oct 01 2008 at 5:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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JPizzleofBahamut wrote:
During the Clinton administration, Congress was majority republican. The last eight years saw the majority Democrat. Seems like they both had a fair share of the power, but you still try to blame republicans, or at least say it's mostly their fault. This whold scam is the most bipartisan thing to come out of our government. I don't think it can be limited to blaming parties. The sad thing is, everyone seems to concur that more government is the solution.
Congress just swapped to Democrat majority at the last elections. Smiley: dubious
#89REDACTED, Posted: Oct 01 2008 at 5:40 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I stand corrected.
#90 Oct 01 2008 at 5:49 AM Rating: Good
JPizzleofBahamut wrote:
The last eight years saw the majority Democrat.


Sorry, I lost you there. From what I understand, and I might be wrong, Congress has been Democrat since 2006. I make that 2 years, unless we're suddenly in 2014, and in that case that was one hell of a long lunch.

Meaning Congress has been Republican from 1995 to 2006. There were a few changes in 2001-02 because someone changed from being a Republican to being indepedent, but that's about it.

Again, I'm not saying the crisis is the Republican's fault, because I don't think it is. But if we're playing the political party blame game, surely it's a bit rich for the party who's been in power for the last 8-11 years to point the finger at the opposition. I do think the politicians in general are to blame, if only because they happily agreed to "let the market forces" have complete control of this process, which involved people's houses, insurance, and savings. I think that's borderline cirminal, but no politician could say that back then without being labelled a pinko commy. But fundamentally, I thinkthe whole system was poorly designed, and that the people in charge of regulating it acted like complete pussies.
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#92 Oct 01 2008 at 7:15 AM Rating: Excellent
knoxsouthy wrote:
The thing is the govn didn't "let the market forces" decide who was a good risk and who wasn't.


Yes, they did. 3/4 of the subprime mortgages were done by companies that had zero obligation to do it. They just thought it was a safe way to make tons of money.

Quote:
And when the regulators suggested there might be a problem the Dems who were ruining the programs cried foul and racism and republicans hate the poor.


The "program" wasn't the problem. The problem was doing great for the best part of 30 years. No one had heard about subprime mortgages until companies that had no obligation whatsoever to supply them decided to use it to try to bolster their short-term profits.

Quote:
Until you understand what caused the problem you can't fix it.


On that, we agree.
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#93 Oct 01 2008 at 9:43 AM Rating: Default
paulsol wrote:
Edward Gibbon said :

[quote]"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight,"


September 24, Chineese regulators have told domestic bank to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis....

China stop lending money to our overextended bank....so they need our 700 billions taxpayers money to save their Yachts and Mansions. The bankers won't rest until they get our money, sad but reality.
#95 Oct 01 2008 at 9:59 AM Rating: Good
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Red,

Quote:
had heard about subprime mortgages until companies that had no obligation whatsoever to supply them decided to use it to try to bolster their short-term profits.



Quote:
The Clinton administration has turned the Community Reinvestment Act . . . into one of the most powerful mandates shaping American cities -- and, as Senate Banking Committee chairman Phil Gramm memorably put it, a vast extortion scheme against the nation's banks. Under its provisions, U.S. banks have committed nearly $1 trillion for inner-city and low-income mortgages and real estate development projects, most of it funneled through a nationwide network of left-wing community groups, intent, in some cases, on teaching their low-income clients that the financial system is their enemy and, implicitly, that government.


It wasn't the companies that caused the crisis.
No one forced those banks to do anything. There just weren't rules against it. Just because something isn't technically against the rules, doesn't mean its the right thing to do.
#97 Oct 01 2008 at 10:30 AM Rating: Good
Knoxy, linking some retardedly partisan paragraph linking mortgage-lending to teaching poor people to hate America is not really the most convincing of arguments.

knoxsouthy wrote:
Businesses are in business to make a profit. If it's not illegal then it's ok, that's how businesses look at it.


Right, so we at least agree there needs to be some regulation?

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#98 Oct 01 2008 at 10:33 AM Rating: Good
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knoxsouthy wrote:
Ash,

omg how naive are you.

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There just weren't rules against it. Just because something isn't technically against the rules, doesn't mean its the right thing to do.


Businesses are in business to make a profit. If it's not illegal then it's ok, that's how businesses look at it.
So do you punish the rulemakers for not including a rule, or do you punish the person exploiting the rules?
#99 Oct 01 2008 at 11:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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Or do you just let the business fail, having miscalculated the risk, and do what you can to protect those affected by the failure?

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#100 Oct 01 2008 at 11:18 AM Rating: Decent
Samira wrote:
Or do you just let the business fail, having miscalculated the risk, and do what you can to protect those affected by the failure?


When the failure of the business directly affects the investments of so many who had no direct hand in the events that caused the business to fail, simply letting it fail is a legitimate but abhorrent option.
#101 Oct 01 2008 at 11:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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BrownDuck the Wise wrote:
Samira wrote:
Or do you just let the business fail, having miscalculated the risk, and do what you can to protect those affected by the failure?


When the failure of the business directly affects the investments of so many who had no direct hand in the events that caused the business to fail, simply letting it fail is a legitimate but abhorrent option.


That's why I added the last clause.

I don't care if Lehman Bros. failed. They assessed risk, they took risk, they flubbed.

I do care that their investors be protected as much as is possible.

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