What was the over/under on a Biden gaffe?Follow

Er?




Grasping at straws there...

I'm not sure I catch your meaning.

Yeah, your paranoia notwithstanding, not all progressives are in lockstep or conspire to make you look stupid.

Hah. Missed this.



Looks really good for Obama, doesn't it? Except that these are all polls in each state. And there are a whole hell of a lot of "barely Dem" states. More significantly, those that are barely Dem are all in the 1-3% margin range, while those that are barely GOP are 4% (5% is the cut off for being "weak" instead of "barely" apparently).

Similar pattern in the "weak" states. The blue weak states are 5%, 7%, and 7%, while the weak blue states are 7%, 7%, and 8%.

Obama's lead in the polls is shallower in each category, and he's got a lot more states in that shallow condition as well. The result is that a whole hell of a lot of electoral votes that are counted on the dem side of the board are subject to a relatively small shift in the polls. We can debate the degree to which polls tend to lead reality (and tend to lean left ahead of elections), but if us conservatives saying "don't believe the polls are right", and there's even a 3% slant left in poling right now, that map ends up being essentially a dead heat (technically a McCain win).

If Obama picks up only the "weak" Dem states, he loses. He must pick up at least 6 more electoral college votes from the "barely" states. Which means that Nevada (which is his best margin in that group at 3%) doesn't win him the election. He absolutely has to win one of either Ohio, Missouri, or North Carolina. He's only leading in the polls in those states by 2%, 2%, and 1% respectively...


Sure. This assumes that I'm right about poll skew, but I strongly suspect that I am. Historically, polls tend to favor the "fresh face" candidate, right up until election day and then there's a sudden shocking shift as reality hits.

We'll see what happens in a couple weeks, but if were an Obama supporter, I would certainly not be counting those chickens just yet. McCain's actually been the one with momentum for the last week and the polls are narrowing.

Bah. My bad. For some really strange reason I got the number 290 in my head... ;)



Correct. If he wins Colorado alone out of the weak states, he'll have exactly half the EC votes (269) putting it to a House vote.

Again though. I'm assuming an overall skew in polling data across the board. Meaning that in every state the actual election results will be X points less for Obama than he's getting in the polls. This is based on a couple key assumptions:

1. Fresh faces just plain poll better, doubly so when there are brand issues with the opponent. People will say in an opinion poll that they want all sorts of things, but tend to be far more realistic when they actually get into a voting booth.

2. Obama's popularity is either massive or nearly non-existent, depending on geographical area. This is pretty significant since states aren't won by counting up the popular vote either. They're won by winning districts. Obama has massive (like 90%) leads in inner city districts in virtually every state in the country, but he has to win the suburbs and rural areas if he wants to actually carry those states. Meanwhile, the polls are going to appear to give him a significant popular advantage due to the same distribution disparity.


So I was off. We need to assume that the skew is 7% across the board (or a combination of skew and real loss in the next couple weeks). That is very doable IMO...



It's the same math either way Joph. It really comes down to the degree to which you believe that opinion polls measuring statewide popular voting measurements are going to end up being accurate in terms of district victory count on election day. Given the nature of Obama's candidacy it's quite reasonable to assume that a popular vote vs electoral vote situation is likely to be widely in play this year. He's exactly the sort of candidate, appealing to exactly the sort of demographic, that is the reason why the electoral college system exists in the first place. It's designed to prevent a candidate who is popular in just a high density areas to win the election just on that popular vote alone.

It's just strange to me that we all know that it's not popular vote that wins this election, yet every measurement you want to use to declare Obama the winner before we've even had a chance to vote is based on purely popular vote math.


We'll see what happens on election day...

Just checking to make sure you're awake... ;)

/shrug

If you put a lot of weight in polls, you'll certainly think the race is locked up. I happen to believe that the more populist the candidate the more skewed the polls. We'll see in a couple weeks, wont we?

The electoral math part comes in that a relatively small nationwide skew in the polls can dramatically shift the map. And I really do believe that there's a significant skew in current polling data in Obama's favor. At least 5%, probably more...

That's the magic of poll skew. It's whatever you need it to be.

I love this, I'm totally using it the next time data in an experiment doesn't fit my preconceived notions. I'll just adjust for the reality skew, and then there won't be any problems.