the women, who had been secretly voting Democrat over the years, will now vote for Palin because she is just like them. The fact that her daughter is pregnant actually adds to her appeal.
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Due respect, I think you're overreacting to one speech, and vastly underestimating the problem these same women are going to have with moving one's family, including an infant with Down's Syndrome out of their home to campaign in front of cameras for nine weeks.
Dragging her new baby around seriously hurts her with the voters you speak of who wished they could have taken more time off work to be with their children when they were infants.
As I said, she'll be beatified for a week or so, then the cataloging of her batsh*t insaneness and mistakes in Alaska will start, and the "it's sexism to speak ill of this woman!!" thing will wear thing pretty quickly, creating a backlash among women.
Come back in off the ledge, her primary appeal is newness and novelty. That just doesn't last long enough to seriously impact the election.
ETA: Nate over 538 feels similarly:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
I think some of you are underestimating the percentage of voters for whom Sarah Palin lacks the standing to make this critique of Barack Obama. To many voters, she is either entirely unknown, or is known as an US Weekly caricature of a woman who eats mooseburgers and has a pregnant daughter. To change someone's opinion, you have to do one of two things. Either, you have to be a trusted voice of authority, or you have to persuade them. Palin is not a trusted voice of authority -- she's much too new. But neither was this a persuasive speech. It was staccato, insistent, a little corny. It preached to the proverbial choir. It was also, as one of my commentors astutely noted, a speech written by a man and for a man, but delivered by a woman, which produces a certain amount of cognitive dissonance.
In exceedingly plain English, I think there's a pretty big who the **** does she think she is? factor. And not just among us Daily Kos reading, merlot-drinking liberals. I think Palin's speech will be instinctively unappealing to other whole demographics of voters, including particuarly working-class men (among whom there may be a misogyny factor) and professional post-menopausal women.
Hivemind must have informed him of it.
Edited, Sep 4th 2008 10:07am by Smasharoo
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