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Electric Car MPG?Follow

#52 Aug 08 2008 at 12:49 PM Rating: Decent
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No. It really wouldn't. People aren't going to replace a car that they can drive to and from work everyday *and* drive on longer trips with one that they can only drive to and from work. I suppose I'll grant that if the whole car was very very cheap, maybe, but even then probably not. 12k still buys a whole lot of years of gasoline, and if I still have to pay it when I take the longer trips anyway, there's just not much reason to buy a second electric car just for the short local ones.


Yeah, you're just wrong here. No sure where else to go with this.


You really don't have a clue about how much (and far!) people in California drive do you Smash?


No, having lived there, I think I do, actually. You argument that they drive 300 miles "running errands" is ludicrously absurd.


Sigh. The closest Frys to my place is 15 miles away. One of my good friends lives 15 miles away. My mom lives 20 miles away. My brother lives 30 miles away. Heck. The closest Best Buy is about 12 miles away.


Yeah, so that's 92? Only 208 to go, little trooper. Wait, let me guess, they all live in a straight line, and to turn around you have to drive 50 miles further away?



The biggest obstacle is range Smash. Always has been. 150 miles is nice I suppose, but still not nearly good enough for mass adoption of electric cars. If you want to get more then a niche market for the tech, it has to be a full replacement for everything people currently do with their cars. 150 miles just isn't enough. Not by a long long long shot.


Yeah, crazily wrong. While your anecdotal stories about your 100s of friends who all drive 300 miles in a day to blow Alpacas or whatever are just delightful, the fact remains that 90% of people would be fine with, and very likely buy a cheap electric car with a range of 150 miles.

It's not like there isn't market research on this. GO FIND SOME. Stop making this ludicrous assumptions and passing them off as fact. YOU'RE NEARLY ALWAYS WRONG. One more time: YOU'RE NEARLY ALWAYS WRONG. This has nothing to do with us disagreeing, or agreeing, or your education relative to mine, it's just an inarguable fact that whenever you've posted without actually doing any research on this board YOU'VE BEEN WRONG MORE OFTEN THAN BLIND CHANCE.

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#53 Aug 08 2008 at 12:52 PM Rating: Decent
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So. In approximately the time the battery will need to be replaced on the car (which is about half the cost of the whole car at this point, which is somewhat absurd all by itself), you'll have saved enough in gasoline to pay for the car.


I think it's fair to assume that the battery in a $12k car isn't going to cost $6k, nor is it going to have a lifespan identical to batteries of today.

He's not talking about buying an electric car today, he's talking about a cheap massed produced one at some future point. No one's selling a 150m range, $12k electric car today. Were they, however, even with the present technical limitations, which I agree are legion, they'd sell as many as they could produce.

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#54 Aug 08 2008 at 12:53 PM Rating: Decent
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While we're here: How many miles per year do you put on your vehicle(s)? Must be at least 50,000 miles what with all these 300 mile a day trips, right?

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#55 Aug 08 2008 at 1:09 PM Rating: Good
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***** off-shore drilling. Lets just take gbaji off the road that will lower gas prices just as much.

GM seems to think 80% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day, almost a quarter of the standard Smash used. I'm pretty sure they've done their research on the matter.



edit, GM research is actually 4 out of 5 drivers not 3 in 4

Edited, Aug 8th 2008 3:21pm by baelnic
#56 Aug 08 2008 at 1:25 PM Rating: Good
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Over the past 2 years, I've driven more than 150 miles in a single day exactly once. It was a trip to Minneapolis, and I *gasp* rented a car for the trip.


Edit: Technically also drove >150 miles when I flew out to Colorado for vacation. But I also rented a car then, since mine wouldn't fit on the airplane.




Edited, Aug 8th 2008 4:24pm by trickybeck
#57 Aug 08 2008 at 1:42 PM Rating: Decent
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GM seems to think 80% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day,


Don't be silly, obviously that's an average derived from 29 days of driving 1 mile per day, and 1 day of driving 1171. You know, running errands.

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#58 Aug 08 2008 at 1:45 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
While we're here: How many miles per year do you put on your vehicle(s)? Must be at least 50,000 miles what with all these 300 mile a day trips, right?



No. Most days, I probably drive less then 20 miles (round trip to work and maybe a stop at a grocery story nearby). But the point is that even if once a month I drive a sufficient single day distance to outstrip the range on an electric car, it's impractical for me to replace my existing car with an electric one.

I drive up to north Las Angeles probably 3 or 4 times a year. Completely out of the range of any existing production electric car. I drive to Vegas usually twice a year. Even moreso. I drive from north county to south county once or twice a month (that's easily a 70 to 80 mile round trip. Doable, but only as long as that's the only driving I do on those days.


Look. I know you're tossing out theory and such, but I'm speaking from direct experience. I know a number of people who are into and own electric cars. As I said, every one of them owns at least one other vehicle. If you ask anyone of them why they don't only own an electric car, they all give the exact same answer: "not enough range". They need to drive longer distances then their cars can go often enough that they simply can't use an electric car as their own means of transportation.


You can insist that it's other things (and there certainly are other factors, reliability being one of the other big ones), but at the end of the day that's why fully electric cars aren't a mass market item. Period.
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#59 Aug 08 2008 at 1:47 PM Rating: Decent
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Look. I know you're tossing out theory and such, but I'm speaking from direct experience. I know a number of people who are into and own electric cars. As I said, every one of them owns at least one other vehicle.


How many of them own one with a range of 150 miles plus?

I'll save you time: None.

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#60 Aug 08 2008 at 1:47 PM Rating: Good
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Wait a minute here. Nexa plays Diablo II?
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#61 Aug 08 2008 at 1:50 PM Rating: Decent
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Wait a minute here. Nexa plays Diablo II?


*Plays* is generous. I can only assume she plays, as all I ever see is me dying, then just as use my last potion, 1000 fire balls. Then her laughing when I reload in town.

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#62 Aug 08 2008 at 1:51 PM Rating: Decent
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trickybeck wrote:

Over the past 2 years, I've driven more than 150 miles in a single day exactly once. It was a trip to Minneapolis, and I *gasp* rented a car for the trip.


Round trip. I think you'd be surprised just how often you drive somewhere that's 60-75 miles away and don't necessarily realize it. We're talking round trip. A 150 mile charge means a 75 mile range. So you can drive 75 miles to somewhere and back. That's a hell of a lot closer then you think. Also, this assumes that's the *only* driving you do that day. Any day you drive to the mall, then the bank, then a stop at the post office, maybe a side trip to a bookstore, then off to grandma's house in the hills, you're likely exceeding the range of any production electric car.


I tell you what. Calculate the mileage for your car and only fill up your tank with enough gas to travel that distance and no more, and never go to the gas station more then once a day. Do that for a year and tell me how many times you run out of gas. I think you're grossly underestimating just how often you're going to exceed those limits.
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#63 Aug 08 2008 at 1:57 PM Rating: Decent
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I think you're grossly underestimating just how often you're going to exceed those limits.


I think you're crazily overestimating how far people in relatively urban areas actually drive. Chicago isn't like California. The city doesn't sprawl out for 1000000 miles. If you live within 20 miles of the city, the chances of you driving somewhere 75 miles away are completely driven by exceptional circumstances.

If I drive 75 miles from Boston, I'm in another state, the ocean, or *literally* some random rural town I've literally never been to in my life. No one here is driving that regularly unless they have special circumstances. Hell, I take the bus to Nexa's 200 miles away because it'd just be a pain in the *** to drive that far for no real reason.



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#64 Aug 08 2008 at 1:58 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

Look. I know you're tossing out theory and such, but I'm speaking from direct experience. I know a number of people who are into and own electric cars. As I said, every one of them owns at least one other vehicle.


How many of them own one with a range of 150 miles plus?

I'll save you time: None.



So you finally agree that it's range that matters? We can debate the exact number, but it is range (total charge really) that's the issue here. I happen to think that 150 miles still isn't anywhere near sufficient for mass market appeal. I tossed out the 800-1000 mile charge because that's the maximum anyone's ever likely to drive in a single day (single charge). That's the value you need to completely replace gasoline powered cars. Even if you don't have to own one yourself (rent when you need to drive longer distances), we're still using gasoline powered cars in that model. If our objective is to end the need to ever use an internal combustion engine to power any personal vehicle, we need battery systems with that sort of charge level.


Does that mean that shorter ranges aren't still useful? Of course not! But if your objective is to significantly reduce the total amount of oil consumed via automobiles, we really have to get much closer to the numbers I was tossing out there.
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#65 Aug 08 2008 at 1:59 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

I think you're grossly underestimating just how often you're going to exceed those limits.


I think you're crazily overestimating how far people in relatively urban areas actually drive. Chicago isn't like California. The city doesn't sprawl out for 1000000 miles. If you live within 20 miles of the city, the chances of you driving somewhere 75 miles away are completely driven by exceptional circumstances.

If I drive 75 miles from Boston, I'm in another state, the ocean, or *literally* some random rural town I've literally never been to in my life. No one here is driving that regularly unless they have special circumstances. Hell, I take the bus to Nexa's 200 miles away because it'd just be a pain in the *** to drive that far for no real reason.



As I said. Folks in urban areas who don't drive much already will be able to take advantage of them. But that's hardly "most people". Not by a long shot Smash. You are aware that the rate of car ownership is lower in places like New York and Boston then it is in places like San Diego and Los Angeles, right?
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#66 Aug 08 2008 at 2:05 PM Rating: Decent
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So you finally agree that it's range that matters? We can debate the exact number,


That's all we've been debating. Try not to fall down backpedaling, though, I don't want you to hurt yourself.


we really have to get much closer to the numbers I was tossing out there.


Yeah, no. No one believes this. Even people who find the idea of eclectic cars preposterous would never argue they need to be able to travel 800 miles on one charge.


As I said. Folks in urban areas who don't drive much already will be able to take advantage of them. But that's hardly "most people"


Of course it is. Are you now arguing that more people live in rural areas than urban ones??


You are aware that the rate of car ownership is lower in places like New York and Boston then it is in places like San Diego and Los Angeles, right?


Sure, this is because our public transportation system doesn't suck floppy donkey cock, not because we have nowhere to go. I can get a train to my parent's town in the suburbs, 30 miles away, every hour for $10. I usually drive, but I could certainly sruvive just fine without a car.

Basing an argument on your public services being horrendous in the state with the largest pollution problem by far isn't terribly compelling, ace.


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#67 Aug 08 2008 at 3:00 PM Rating: Good
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This thread is like the twilight zone.


I think I'm going to leave it now.

#68 Aug 08 2008 at 3:13 PM Rating: Good
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Smash wrote:
*Plays* is generous. I can only assume she plays, as all I ever see is me dying, then just as use my last potion, 1000 fire balls. Then her laughing when I reload in town.

We should play sometime. We are talking the expansion right?
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#69 Aug 08 2008 at 3:39 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

As I said. Folks in urban areas who don't drive much already will be able to take advantage of them. But that's hardly "most people"


Of course it is. Are you now arguing that more people live in rural areas than urban ones??


Per capita ownership of cars? Absolutely. We are talking about replacing existing cars with electric ones, right? Counting all the masses of people who live in crowded east coast cities who don't own cars doesn't really count, does it?

Car ownership in suburban and rural communities is often over 100% Smash (more cars than adults). Want to take a wild gander what the rate is for say New York?

Quote:

You are aware that the rate of car ownership is lower in places like New York and Boston then it is in places like San Diego and Los Angeles, right?


Sure, this is because our public transportation system doesn't suck floppy donkey cock, not because we have nowhere to go.


No. It's because those cities were originally designed and grew in an era before cars. By a significant majority, when people are given the choice to live in a densely packed urban environment or a spread out suburban one, they choose the suburban living.

People live in tight communities and use public transportation because they don't have a choice, not because it's better in anyway. Your argument is like praising the quality of the dog food you're eating because you can't afford anything else.

Quote:
I can get a train to my parent's town in the suburbs, 30 miles away, every hour for $10. I usually drive, but I could certainly sruvive just fine without a car.


Really? That train drop you off right in front of your parents house?

Being able to "survive" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement Smash. Some people want to have the freedom to make their own choices. Ownership of a car is part of that. And for all the reasons people choose to own cars and live in areas that aren't convenient to get to via public transportation, most people will not choose to own an electric vehicle until the range is vastly increased (as I've said repeatedly).

Quote:
Basing an argument on your public services being horrendous in the state with the largest pollution problem by far isn't terribly compelling, ace.


It's not based on the public services being horrendous. It's based on the fact that most people, given a choice between public transportation and being able to own a car, will choose the car every single time.

You don't seem to understand why, and that's why you also don't understand what's really preventing electric cars from being fully adopted.

Edited, Aug 8th 2008 4:37pm by gbaji
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#70 Aug 08 2008 at 3:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
People live in tight communities and use public transportation because they don't have a choice
Makes sense. I know the people living in apartments and condos on the Gold Cost are there because they can't find any escape from their hellish lives.
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#71 Aug 08 2008 at 6:05 PM Rating: Decent
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Per capita ownership of cars? Absolutely.


Per capita? Really? Thread over, fuckstick. The stench of desperation is too overwhelming now.

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#72 Aug 08 2008 at 6:12 PM Rating: Decent
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You conveniently left out the preceding sentence. How typical.

gbaji wrote:
By a significant majority, when people are given the choice to live in a densely packed urban environment or a spread out suburban one, they choose the suburban living.



There's certainly going to be some small minority of people who have the money to live elsewhere who choose to live in an upscale urban setting. Doesn't make the broader statement wrong though. How about you put your research skills to a test and calculate for me the percentage of multi-story apartment buildings in Chicago that are considered "upscale"?

Or perhaps draw yourself a color coded map in which income ranges and population densities are overlaid on a map of the city?

Want to make a wager as to what pattern you see? Wait! Let me put on my Swammi hat and make a prediction! You're going to see a direct correlation between income level and population density. As incomes increase, population density will tend to decrease. While there will certainly be exceptions (like rich people choosing to live in upscale apartment buildings), for the vast majority of the population in/around any major city that pattern will hold true, pretty much wherever you go in the US (and pretty much anywhere in the developed world as well).
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#73 Aug 08 2008 at 6:31 PM Rating: Excellent
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The last few years there has been a debate in Maryland over where the state funding should be spent. Roads and new Highway to connect Northern Montgomery Co to I95 or public transportation. It took the price of gas to go over $3.90 a gallon for the ridership on local public transportation to increase and traffic during rush hour not to stop and go parking lots.

All this happen as the MTA had problems with light rail and MARC trains from D.C., Baltimore and Frederick Co. Suddenly people who never rode public transportation were ranting over how MTA should have known and finance upgrades to bus and rail lines already.

Suddenly people who lived in their cars to go around the corner for a gallon of milk discover what the working poor have had to deal with for years. The newspapers here are full of stories on how many are getting bikes to ride to work and do run to the store. Even better they are out walking and maybe those of us who always prefer to walk will get sidewalks and not have to wait forever at corners waiting for it to be safe to cross the streets.

Cities build after the highway system was build will lag behind those that always had some public transportation system, though few kept the trolley systems that made the early suburbs popular. Already Baltimore seen the housing market in the downtown area do better then surrounding areas due to people wanting to live nearer to work, culture and stores.

Also instead of traveling miles to some big outlet store, why not check out smaller stores near by. With several major stores now easily reach by bus, I could get anywhere by using public transportation and walking to get everywhere.

I use to take the train in California and used both the light rail and buses in San Diego. Sure it takes longer and doesn't go to those nice malls outside the city, but I only shopped in malls a few times a year for school clothes and Christmas presents, since I could find nearly everything in one place. It's nice to know I can take bus or light rail to most of the malls around Baltimore. Since they all seem to have the same chain stores in them, going to just one normally will do.

also I love fact I can do all my shopping online these days if I wish. Doesn't seem the same when one buying vegetables and fruit.
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#74 Aug 08 2008 at 6:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

Per capita ownership of cars? Absolutely.


Per capita? Really? Thread over, fuckstick. The stench of desperation is too overwhelming now.



Yes. As in "how many cars per person"? Isn't that relevant?

Your argument rests on the assumption that electric cars with more moderate (but still higher then todays) ranges would result in a significant market adoption because "most people don't need to drive that far". But the areas where your assertion is most true are the areas that have the lowest per-capita car ownership already. Also, those are the areas where the high price of gas has (presumably) the least impact and therefor the least incentive to actively seek an alternative.

If I live in an urban area and don't own a car, I'm unlikely to buy an electric car either. If I live in an urban area and do own a car, I'm less likely to actually need an electric car due to the minimal amount of driving I'm doing. The funny thing is that the people who have the most "need" for a cheap alternative to gasoline are those who least benefit from electric cars. As I've been trying to explain for several posts now, that's because they drive long distances regularly and electric cars don't have sufficient range.


Because of this factor significant market penetration can only be achieved by electric cars if they can meet the needs of those who drive the most, not those who drive the least. Think it through. If you never drive more then 10 or 15 miles a day, how badly hit are you by high gas prices? While you did talk about cheap electric cars, the cost point at which an electric car becomes worthwhile is pretty darn low in that case. I quoted someone's earlier list of commute cost and showed how it would take about 4 years to pay for itself. But if you don't commute that sort of distance regularly, your savings is less and therefore the time it'll take before an electric car is cost effective is greater.


I thought this was so obvious a factor that I didn't need to explain it. Apparently, for you, I have to...
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#75 Aug 08 2008 at 7:28 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
How about you put your research skills to a test and calculate for me the percentage of multi-story apartment buildings in Chicago that are considered "upscale"?

Or perhaps draw yourself a color coded map in which income ranges and population densities are overlaid on a map of the city?

Want to make a wager as to what pattern you see?
Go for it. Not my job to make your arguments for you. In fact, until you show me these charts, I'll just assume that (as usual) you completely made all this data up.

So get cracking, liar!
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#76 Aug 08 2008 at 10:10 PM Rating: Decent
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I compressed my C Drive.
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