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So much for McCain picking up Clinton supportersFollow

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#1 Jul 16 2008 at 7:26 AM Rating: Excellent
Samira
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And of course all their lovely money.

teh article wrote:
California Democrats and independent voters who backed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton have gravitated in huge numbers to Sen. Barack Obama - a consolidation of support that has boosted him to a commanding 24-point lead over Republican rival John McCain in the nation's most populous state, the latest Field Poll shows.

Putting an end to fears that Clinton's supporters might hold out - or tip to McCain - in the general election after a contentious Democratic primary, the poll shows that the New York senator's former backers now prefer Obama to McCain, 80 to 8 percent, and the Illinois senator now holds a 2-to-1 lead among California's likely female voters.


OH MY GOD an 8% defection rate, less than the normal 10% in any given election.

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#2 Jul 16 2008 at 7:29 AM Rating: Excellent
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Gbaji says McCain will surprise you all and take California. Just you wait.
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#3 Jul 16 2008 at 8:46 AM Rating: Decent
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To be fair, I don't think people were much worried about this happening in California. This poll in Pennsylvania or Ohio would be a lot more encouraging.

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#4 Jul 16 2008 at 8:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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California going Democrat? Inconceivable!
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#5 Jul 16 2008 at 8:57 AM Rating: Excellent
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Smasharoo wrote:
To be fair, I don't think people were much worried about this happening in California. This poll in Pennsylvania or Ohio would be a lot more encouraging.



I was just happy about the 24-point lead, especially in light of last week's "Hillary or nuttin'" doom and gloom.

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#7 Jul 16 2008 at 2:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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knoxsouthy wrote:
This fact, along with him moving the convention, is losing him a lot allies on the dem side.
Gallup, today, wrote:
Barack Obama's support among political liberals has not declined in recent weeks, and shows evidence of a modest uptick. Currently, 82% of self-identified liberals (including 92% of liberals who identify themselves as Democrats) say they would vote for Obama rather than John McCain if the election were held today. His support from both groups is the highest to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
[...]
Despite questions about his commitment to a "progressive" agenda, Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that rank-and-file liberal Democrats are no less likely to support Obama now than they were earlier in the campaign.
[...]
It is clear that any perceived shifts by Obama toward the middle on specific issues have not brought about a decline in support for him among the more ideological wing of his party.
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#8 Jul 16 2008 at 3:35 PM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
knoxsouthy wrote:
This fact, along with him moving the convention, is losing him a lot allies on the dem side.
Gallup, today, wrote:
Barack Obama's support among political liberals has not declined in recent weeks, and shows evidence of a modest uptick. Currently, 82% of self-identified liberals (including 92% of liberals who identify themselves as Democrats) say they would vote for Obama rather than John McCain if the election were held today. His support from both groups is the highest to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
[...]
Despite questions about his commitment to a "progressive" agenda, Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that rank-and-file liberal Democrats are no less likely to support Obama now than they were earlier in the campaign.
[...]
It is clear that any perceived shifts by Obama toward the middle on specific issues have not brought about a decline in support for him among the more ideological wing of his party.

You really have to stop posting cites, Jophiel, you know you can't keep an argument going like that in here.
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#9 Jul 16 2008 at 4:13 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Gbaji says McCain will surprise you all and take California. Just you wait.


I don't think California will be voting Republican anytime soon. While Silicon Valley and Hollywood are here, no way that will happen.
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#10 Jul 16 2008 at 5:10 PM Rating: Decent
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Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?


Unfounded assumption if you ask me.
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#11 Jul 16 2008 at 5:45 PM Rating: Decent
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NaughtyWord wrote:
Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?

Unfounded assumption if you ask me.

San Francisco, mostly.
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we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
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#12 Jul 17 2008 at 11:08 AM Rating: Decent
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NaughtyWord wrote:
Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?


Unfounded assumption if you ask me.


54% voted for Kerry in the '04 election in California. There were states in the 60's.
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#13 Jul 17 2008 at 6:23 PM Rating: Decent
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Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?

It never has been. Were you thinking of Massachusetts, perhaps?

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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

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#14 Jul 17 2008 at 6:42 PM Rating: Default
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Jophiel wrote:
Gbaji says McCain will surprise you all and take California. Just you wait.


No. I said a McCain v Obama race would put California in play. Given that the quoted article in the OP says these numbers "...put to rest the suggestion that McCain has a shot at taking California in November", I'm clearly not the only person who's floated the idea.

Course. This is SFgate saying it's been "put to rest", and frankly, these are fairly early Field Poll numbers. We'll see what happens. Honestly, it depends on McCain. If he's able to build on his Immigration position from a couple years ago, he certainly has a shot at taking key latino votes from Obama in California. His biggest obstacle here isn't really Obama, but the conservative pundits who think they understand this issue better then the people who live on or near the border.


Remember. This was a poll with like what? 600 people in it? You're going to pick up rank-and-file shifts with a poll like that, but *not* shifts within traditional demographics. We'll see what happens. I really do think that most of the polls and election map numbers we're seeing right now are based on some founding assumptions that just aren't valid in this race. Obama is not a typical Democrat candidate, and McCain is not a traditional Republican candidate. Yet political polls are calculated and weighted and clustered based on assumptions about the baselines of specific demographics in an historical context. I just suspect that the assumptions are wrong. Very very wrong...

Edited, Jul 17th 2008 7:42pm by gbaji
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#15 Jul 17 2008 at 7:01 PM Rating: Decent
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No. I said a McCain v Obama race would put California in play. Given that the quoted article in the OP says these numbers "...put to rest the suggestion that McCain has a shot at taking California in November", I'm clearly not the only person who's floated the idea.

Obviously. You had to read it somewhere. "Idea". Good one, you crack me up. Or did you mean that you weren't the only sucker who read it and thought it was plausible?



Remember. This was a poll with like what? 600 people in it? You're going to pick up rank-and-file shifts with a poll like that, but *not* shifts within traditional demographics. We'll see what happens. I really do think that most of the polls and election map numbers we're seeing right now are based on some founding assumptions that just aren't valid in this race. Obama is not a typical Democrat candidate, and McCain is not a traditional Republican candidate. Yet political polls are calculated and weighted and clustered based on assumptions about the baselines of specific demographics in an historical context. I just suspect that the assumptions are wrong. Very very wrong...


It's true. Obama could win 45 states. Good call.

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Disclaimer:

To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

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#16 Jul 17 2008 at 7:44 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?

It never has been. Were you thinking of Massachusetts, perhaps?




More along the lines of Minnesota.
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#17 Jul 18 2008 at 6:37 AM Rating: Excellent
Samira
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Yeah, McCain's definitely making inroads with Latinos. [:eyeroll:]

Quote:
the questioner asked whether McCain would commit to ending the "inhumane raids" that separate illegal immigrants from their babies and small children.

"When your forefathers came, there was no illegal-legal. Everyone was welcome at Ellis Island," the man asserted.

But McCain refused to rule out the idea of raids on illegal immigrants, saying, "The United States has to have secure borders sir, and that's necessary, even if you disagree."


Definitely.

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#18 Jul 18 2008 at 6:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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To be fair, McCain's forefathers were white. Although the Scots-Irish side might have had some issues depending on when they arrived. I'm sure the English side sailed right through the Express No Waiting line.
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#19 Jul 18 2008 at 6:52 AM Rating: Decent
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NaughtyWord wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:

Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?

It never has been. Were you thinking of Massachusetts, perhaps?




More along the lines of Minnesota.
Huh?

While a lot of the liberal thought-streams stem from Cali, it's just too big and diverse to hold the title. Mass may appear pretty liberal on paper, but it's industrial dependence sometimes gets in the way of it's progressiveness (same with Maine).

I'd pick Vermont as the most 'truly liberal' state.

MN is not anywhere in the running????
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#20 Jul 18 2008 at 7:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elinda wrote:
I'd pick Vermont as the most 'truly liberal' state.
Yeah, one of the small, low population New England states.
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#21 Jul 18 2008 at 10:15 AM Rating: Good
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Elinda wrote:
NaughtyWord wrote:
Smasharoo wrote:

Why is California considered to be the most Liberal State?

It never has been. Were you thinking of Massachusetts, perhaps?




More along the lines of Minnesota.
Huh?

While a lot of the liberal thought-streams stem from Cali, it's just too big and diverse to hold the title. Mass may appear pretty liberal on paper, but it's industrial dependence sometimes gets in the way of it's progressiveness (same with Maine).

I'd pick Vermont as the most 'truly liberal' state.

MN is not anywhere in the running????



The DFL in MN has been the strongest party in MN for quite some time and acts as a liaison for the DNC. Couple that with the fact it was the sole state to never have elected Reagan and has the single longest running democratic electoral vote. It also has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the nation. Its a state this is big into environmentalism, education funding, and eco-fuel.

Gbaji would hate it.
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