yossarian wrote:
Every bit of oil will be drilled up eventually. It is just a question of when and how gracefully it is done. It's a nonrenewable resource (on human timescales) so it is very shortsighted to drill now. Particularly when alternatives abound. It may well be that oil is eventually principally used for aviation, military and sport.
Except that in order to do the necessary R&D to develop those alternatives to the point where they can actually replace fossil fuels, we need to keep using the non-renewable energy sources actively.
Let me present a little thought experiment. What would happen if we reduced our oil and coal use to just enough to keep our citizens alive, but nothing more. We could very likely stretch those resources out for 2 or 3 times as long, but we'd have nothing left over to put into developing alternative fuels. So when they run out, we're screwed.
If we burn a bit more and faster, we can promote a healthy economy which can support the research needed. I think it's shortsighted to insist that we shift to alternatives *now* instead of taking maximum advantage of the relatively cheap cost of oil and coal today while continuing work to make those alternatives more efficient so that they are more viable tomorrow.
Right now, alternatives at their current technological level, could provide about 30-50% of the entire power needs of our country. That's pretty much it. And that's not what they currently provide. That's how much total power we could get out of them if we fully adopted them (ie: grew as much ethonol producing plants as we possibly can, put wind power plants everywhere we can, put solar power plants everywhere we can, etc...). We need much much more if we are to fully remove our need for oil and coal. To do that, we must continue developing more efficient means of utilizing those alternative fuels. That could be genetic engineering to create more efficient biofuels, research into exotic materials to use for solar energy collection, research into super lightweight materials for use in wind or wave power, and that's not including such "future tech" type things like cold fusion, zero point energy, etc...
All of those require some pretty high tech work, which in turn requires an economy capable of supporting said endeavors. You can't do that if you tune your power use down to a subsistence-like level.
It would be truly ironic if at our current energy consumption rate we're say 25 years away from inventing cold fusion or something equally world changing that would allow us to have nearly endless cheap and clean power, but we're so concerned about burning oil and coal that we limit their production and make it so expensive that we're unable to ever figure it out. I'm thinking that a zillion years from now, some alien species would write an entry into their intergalactic encyclopedia about the human race that says something like "Not around anymore cause they were stupid".