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A Day at the RacesFollow

#1 May 23 2008 at 6:32 AM Rating: Decent
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The Belmont Stakes is next weekend.

Big Brown has, quite handily, won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.
Bloomberg on The Preakness wrote:
Big Brown, named after United Parcel Service Inc., ran the 1 3/16 miles in an official time of 1 minute, 54.86 seconds. He returned $2.40 for a $2 bet to win, $2.60 for place or runner-up, and $2.40 to show or finish third, to become the shortest-price winner since Spectacular Bid in 1979 at 1-to-10. Macho Again was second and returned $17.20 and $10.40, while Icabad Crane ran third to pay $5.60.

Do you think he can be the next Triple Crown champ?

I thought this interesting:

Bloomberg wrote:

Upon his retirement, Big Brown will go to Three Chimneys, where Dynaformer, the sire of 2006 Derby winner Barbaro, stands stud for $150,000 and Smarty Jones gets a $100,000 stud fee.


Them are some valuable sex-juices.


Edited, May 23rd 2008 4:33pm by Elinda
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#2 May 23 2008 at 6:37 AM Rating: Default
I think he has a good shot.

Would be neat to see!

And I know right, maybe I'm in the wrong prefession lol... ($150,0000!!!)
#3 May 23 2008 at 6:42 AM Rating: Excellent
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Dunno! Triple Crown winners are rare because horses, somewhat like people, have different running styles. Some are sprinters, some are runners. Belmont is considerably longer than Preakness, and he's one tired horse at this point.

Be fun if he does, though.

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#4 May 23 2008 at 6:46 AM Rating: Decent
Tired indeed.

I think that's what will make it even sweeter is that he's got to be running on fumes at this point.

I mean he did it from waaaaay out in left field. I don't think anyone had won a race starting so far out the gates. I think his only downfall will be the trainers. Depending on what has been done with him since the Derby I don't see why he wouldn't sweep.

Makes for great TV though.
#5 May 23 2008 at 6:48 AM Rating: Excellent
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He's also had some injuries that have been downplayed (or may just really not be serious). On the other hand he's a big, strong horse who loves to run.

His jockey was funny about Preakness. "I looked behind us and couldn't see anybody!"

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#6 May 23 2008 at 6:50 AM Rating: Decent
Lol.

Jockey's are so awesome. Sorry but I just had the vision of the Vitamin water commercial with Shaq. The jockey slaps him on the *** at the end. Funny ****.

I'm not big into horse racing, I'm the usual watch the big ones on TV guy. What injury does he have?
#7 May 23 2008 at 6:54 AM Rating: Excellent
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The usual things every race horse contends with, I'd imagine. It's pretty hush-hush in the lead-up to the race, but stress fractures are common.

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#8 May 23 2008 at 6:56 AM Rating: Decent
Yeah it was sad about the one that broke it's 2 front legs. I mean damn they euthanized it in a matter of seconds.

#9 May 23 2008 at 7:54 AM Rating: Excellent
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Someone on the radio was commenting that you were better off putting $2.00 on every other horse to show than to bet on Big Brown. I get what he was saying but don't know enough about betting on the ponies to say if he's right.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#10 May 23 2008 at 7:57 AM Rating: Decent
Meaning what J? That he would not even place?

I think that is a bit bold on his behalf but interesting. Kind of follows up with Sam's idea about the injuries. Maybe he knows something we don't???

#11 May 23 2008 at 8:01 AM Rating: Excellent
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davault wrote:
Meaning what J? That he would not even place?

I think that is a bit bold on his behalf but interesting. Kind of follows up with Sam's idea about the injuries. Maybe he knows something we don't???



You just won't get good enough odds on BB, so you may as well hedge your bets. I'm pretty sure that's what he meant.

Smash could probably tell us definitively.
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#12 May 23 2008 at 8:03 AM Rating: Decent
True I suppose.

Not sure what highest % of betting is on those.

Is is trifecta's or just out right?

I would think maybe in a trifecta or quinella it would decrease but outright should still be ok even if he is a favorite yes?

Lol like i said I am a bandwagon horce racing fan. :p
#13 May 23 2008 at 8:09 AM Rating: Decent
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It's the odds on each horse's position, or close enough. Meaning, that Big Brown is so heavily favored to win that you would have to put down a stupendous amount of money just to make a decent return, whereas a longshot has a better return.
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#14 May 23 2008 at 8:09 AM Rating: Decent
Aye.

Thanks. :)
#15 May 23 2008 at 8:15 AM Rating: Decent
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I say no.
#16 May 23 2008 at 8:16 AM Rating: Excellent
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Also - trifecta is choosing first, second and third place, in order. It's usually not *very* hard to pick the strongest three contenders, but pretty hard to pick the order in which they'll finish unless you know a lot about how each one performs on this type of track (sandy, in Belmont), what shape they're currently in, who's riding, etc. etc.
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#17 May 23 2008 at 8:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
It's the odds on each horse's position, or close enough. Meaning, that Big Brown is so heavily favored to win that you would have to put down a stupendous amount of money just to make a decent return, whereas a longshot has a better return.
Pretty much. He said that BB would probably either win easily or blow out horribly (leg injury, etc). If you bet on every other horse to show, at least two of them will return money as 2nd & 3rd place winners. If BB fails, you'll get returns on three.

Again though, I'm a pure amateur and just parroting.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#18 May 23 2008 at 8:22 AM Rating: Decent
Odd how betting on the long shot could net you more than the winner lol.

Supply and demand I guess in a way. :p

None the less I will be rooting for BB.

What is the take on $ amount they'll sell his love nectar for?
#19 May 23 2008 at 8:24 AM Rating: Excellent
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davault wrote:
Odd how betting on the long shot could net you more than the winner lol.

Supply and demand I guess in a way. :p

None the less I will be rooting for BB.

What is the take on $ amount they'll sell his love nectar for?


If he wins and survives in shape to stud (and is heterosexual, remember the lessons of Secretariat), probably upwards of $1 million per.

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#20 May 23 2008 at 8:25 AM Rating: Excellent
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[Lisa Simpson]Oooohh! A baseball made from Secretariat![/LS]
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#21 May 23 2008 at 8:27 AM Rating: Decent
God could you imagine!

Not the money but the horse!

Reporter: How's life Big Brown?
BB: meh you know, action at dawn, break for lunch, get me a bite then back to work. (shouts to trainer) What are we up to about 20 by now Dave?
BB: You know just doing my duty.

Lmao. What a life...

#22 May 23 2008 at 8:48 AM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
Someone on the radio was commenting that you were better off putting $2.00 on every other horse to show than to bet on Big Brown. I get what he was saying but don't know enough about betting on the ponies to say if he's right.


I can say with almost certainty that this is a bad idea. The way the paramutual system of betting works, if Big Brown shows (comes in first, second or third) the payoff for the other horses who show will be not insanely high. Although if Big Brown doesn't show, you would have a very good chance of making money. When I used to go to the track back in the early 1990's Desormeaux was infamous for not finishing second or third (as much as is typical): he was a great jockey if you were betting to win, but great to bet against if you were looking for place/show. I have no idea if that trend is the same now.

In the Preakness, if one had bet $2 to show on every horse except Big Brown, one would have put out $22 (eleven other horses - yes I'm accounting for the one who scratched) and gotten back $16. And it was only that good because Macho Again returned $10.40, reflecting the fact no one thought he was going to do anything in that race (40-1 odds to win). If Gayego had shown, it would have been much, much worse.

Anyhow I don't follow racing anymore since my Dad died and so I can't really provide any insight beyond that.
#23 May 23 2008 at 10:15 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
[Lisa Simpson]Oooohh! A baseball made from Secretariat![/LS]
Hah, a factoid:

Lisa Simpson's voice = Yeardley Smith. I work with Yeardley's brother. He looks just like her only shorter and balder.

On the other hand, Secretariat Soup, I bet, would have gone for big bucks.
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#24 May 23 2008 at 10:40 AM Rating: Decent
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Do you think he can be the next Triple Crown champ?


Very likely. It's a really weak group of 3 year olds this year.
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#25 May 23 2008 at 12:08 PM Rating: Good
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God, I can't wait for the Del Mar races to start.
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