Official Election Prediction ThreadFollow

Yes. Because clearly Latinos can't be conservative... Way to stereotype two groups at the same time! :)


You all already know my prediction. Heck. We've got a bet...

Not because Latinos can't be conservative (and calling McCain a "conservative" is a joke) but you can't be tough on immigration AND appeal to the Latino community.

Funny enough, this is almost exactly my opinion as well.

My prediction:

If it is revealed that McCain has any of the following diseases, he automatically loses:

- Alzheimer's
- Recurrant melanoma
- Dementia
- Severe untreated PTSD

If it is revealed that Obama has any of the following issues, he automatically loses:

- Took money from big corporate lobbyists in secret
- Has a half white love child with one of those $1000 an hour call girls
- Has Jesus personally come down to tell people he shouldn't be president
- Had Chelsea give him a BJ

Otherwise, it'll be fairly close. I'm hoping for a fair Obama win. I'm praying McCain just drops dead before then and solves the problem.

Meaningless.

Meaningless, Jophiel? In a race that is consummed with racial politics-- and gender politics when it comes to Hillary supporters --you can't escape the significance of a very dissatisfied voting base, even if the election is six months off. Moreover, those racial and gender issues aren't going away, rather, as the election nears and more stuff surfaces and/or the details are magnified to the extent molehills are made to look like mountains, those very issues will matter.

Barry Hussein already is getting a taste of it. He's being linked in the public's mind to being soft on terror and states that embrace terror. He'd best pray that the Hellbeast will accept the lower half of the ticket so that she can say all the things he can't by painting himself into the corner as the nice guy candidate who only says audaciously hopeful things. He desperately needs a lightning rod on his staff.

Totem

Yup.

I'm sorry. If you want me to soften my stance, I'll say it's about as meaningful as your typical person who gets unasked for mustard on their McDonald's cheeseburger, swears loudly never to go back there again and is back the next week. Maybe 1 person in fifty actually keeps their "No McDonald's!" pledge.

haha, I'm logging out so that the next time Smash posts, he'll have to be himself. This is confusing me.

Nexa

The Republicans have only been cohesive because they picked up the religious conservative vote. McCain won't be able to maintain that unity. Dems aside, there is a large swath of the Pubbie bloc that isn't in love with their candidate, and may not be able to bring themselves to vote for him. I agree with the rest when they say the Dems will unite behind their candidate, and I think then you'll get a clearer picture of the political tightrope he appears to be on--he's a true conservative, but he has to maintain his 'maverick' image in order to not lose his independents and that's going to hurt him as he tries to woo the party's conservative base.

I never quite understood that. How the two branches of the Republican party, the fiscal conservatives guys who want to cut taxes and governement in general, and the hardcore religious crowd, ended up together. It seems so contradictory.

Religious people should, in theory, want a dovish foreign policy, be against the legalisation of guns, favour welfare programs, and be in favour of restricting greed.

On the other side, I can't see how adding religion into the mix can ever provide for "less government". Or how the Republican's economic policy is anyway related to such "values" as being anti-abortion, being against gay people getting married, or wanting to teach kids that creation is a serious alternative to evolution.

It seems completely circumstatial. A marriage of electoral convenience, rather than an over-arching intellectual or sentimental bond.

I can't see a chance in hell of this happening.

I think it has something to do with the fact that the "hardcore religious crowd" isn't composed of 100% saints. The red state "religious crowd" are often people that show up to church on Sunday with a gun rack hanging in their pick-up truck. I grew up in a rural area where it was hard to find a soul that didn't hunt or own guns. They also act as though people in welfare programs are stealing their money just as much as the rich.

I agree that "in theory" it doesn't make much sense. The split between the Dems and the Christian Right has more to do with "moral values" such as stances on abortion, marriage, etc. that the Republicans have embraced.

This.

My father in law can't stomach McCain and has vowed to stay home in November because "it isn't worth it." Then again, this is a guy that thinks Bush is too liberal.

(Oddly enough, he's pro-choice because he's like a hardcore Bible scholar and even he will acknowledge that the Bible is silent on abortion, and in Biblical times babies weren't named til they lived a couple of days or weeks anyway. I think his particular fundy cult says the soul enters the body with the first breath. Or something like that.)