The probable near tie in IN combined with Obama's major victory in North Carolina means that Clinton has about zero chance of claiming a popular vote victory which was her only real chance towards swaying the superdelegates since she can't win the pledged delegate count.
Prior to tonight, you could claim a popular vote victory for Clinton via some tortured logic (such as counting Michigan and giving Obama 0 votes from there) but his NC win wipes even that out. Without FL/MI, she's got nothing.
I'm anxious to see Lake county but it won't swing this. It has about the same demographics as Marion County does but half the population. If it votes the same way, it'd give Obama an extra 30,000 votes (He's winning Marion County bt 60,000) when he's trailing by 40,000. It'll be a squeaker but I don't see him pulling it through.
Always happy to be proven wrong though
Supposedly, the exit polls showed that 7% of the voters for Clinton said they'd be unhappy with her as the nominee. If Clinton wins by a razor margin, she'll obviously (and rightfully) claim the victory but I suspect the superdelegates will realize that Republican cross-over "sabotage" voting was what decided the election. I'm not decrying anyone doing it, just saying that I don't think anyone new would be convinced by a single digit Clinton win in IN.
Edited, May 6th 2008 10:03pm by Jophiel