Smasharoo wrote:
Um. Even then. If the value of the fund increases, from the perspective of the manager's performance on the fund for his investors, he "created value".
Sure, and when I have a winning poker session I "created value".
Game over, thanks for playing, feel free to try again.
No, you didn't. As I pointed out earlier. No more money leaves the table then was there when you started. That's not the case over time with investments.
And yes. I'm aware that some capital gains are made on a buy/sell basis and also don't represent an increase in total capital in the economy. The key difference (again!), is that the overall result of that investment *does* increase the total size of the pie over time. No matter how many years you and 5 other people play poker, you'll never increase the total amount of money at the table. Ever.
Get it? Completely different things.
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Hedge funds are as likely to throw large amounts of money into highly speculative investments
No, they're not. By definition. The point of Hedge Funds is to minimize risk, not to maximize return.
No. By definition hedge funds are funds that are allowed to use a wider range of tactics with the money they manage. That's it. While the traditional hedge fund (and the source of the name) is about minimizing risk, that is not the totality of what a hedge fund can be. Today, many are about maximizing short term return, and *not* minimizing risk.
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Most of them under perform the S&P in return. They do so with significantly less volatility, however. What they're likely to do is seek arbitrage opportunities that are frequently artificial and break markets. The nature of arbitrage almost always guarantees a detrimental result to the rest of the market. See Soros snapping the bank of England in half and making $1,000,000,000 in a day in '92.
You're using an outdated assumed definition for the term "hedge fund". That's not the entirety of the definition. That's one type of hedge fund...
But semantics aside, you're still missing the point. Let's say a hedge fund exists specifically to make money on short term market panics (like the Soros example). You start with some stock (or a whole group of stocks) that's worth say $50/share today. You wait for a panic moment (or cause one if we want to use our tinfoil hats). In a few hours, the value drops to $40/share. You use the massive amounts of liquid assets in the fund to gobble 10 million shares at that price, because you know that this is just a short term dip. The very fact that you've done this shores up the price and it rebounds up to $48/share. You then sell it (possibly to the same funds that sold it a few hours earlier). Net profit for one day: 80 million dollars. You then sit there with your mass of cash waiting for the next panic event to occur...
What just happened? Well. In reality, nothing. Ok. The shares are now worth $2/share less, but let's assume they recover that over the next week or so and everything goes back to normal. Here's the deal. You want to tax that as income. And perhaps you have a point, since you've correctly noted that no actual "value" was added. Here's the problem though. No actual taxes were generated either. But wait! you say... What about the taxes on the 80 million dollars?! Sure. But what about the taxes that will now not be paid on the 100 million dollars of loss that occurred first? It's a wash. In fact, after the value bounces back, net taxes on that "dip" is.... zero.
See. While you can point to any individual instance of capital gains and say: "He didn't do anything positive for the economy", if you look at investment as a whole, you'll quickly realize that taxes gained from capital gains is only positive if the total gains exceed the total losses. Thus, while there may be many predatory buys and sells, from a public gain point of view, it mirrors exactly and *only* the degree of "gain" to the entire value of invested industry as a whole.
My point is that it's accurate to say that capital gains (as a whole) only occurs as a result of positive growth to the economy as a whole. While one person may gain during a loss, the net is still a loss (or a break even). Raising taxes on capital gains is equivalent to raising taxes on your own countries economic growth...
Edited, May 13th 2008 6:43pm by gbaji