Smasharoo wrote:
Al sadr is likely to take power either way, through elections or through violence regardless of what we do.
I don't think Al-Sadr is actually that bad. I mean, relatively. If he somehow got in power, the biggest threat would be his potential alliance with Iran. Which, in itself would not necessarily be catastrophic, though it would change the balance of play considerably.
But the election results and democratic institutions in Iraq are only respected because of the US military backing of the governement. The Kurds are only quiet because they have their semi-indepedence, and are protected by the US. The Sunnis might be pissed off at AQ right now, but it doesn't mean they'll happily sit back while the shias dominate the political landscape for the rest of time.
I have no idea who/what would take power, but i don't think there's any doubt the minute the US leave, there will be a power struggle between the factions out of government and those inside it. That struggle is likely to be military, and will eventually involve Iraq's neighbours. Even if someone benign eventually takes power, it'll still cause a lot of instability.
Maybe I'm misunderestimating the respect Iraqis have for democracy, though.