Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Not to be obvious, but polls taken during the nomination process on what people will do in the general election are largely irrelevant.
But a more accurate source than Gbaji giving
his wild guesses
/shrug
My "wild guesses" are based on pretty normal human behavior models. Polls usually reflect the opinions of whomever took the poll, or whatever media coverage a given subject has been inundated with most recently. Media says that Wright's antics are "bad" and Obama's numbers go down. Media says that Obama's speech was wonderful, and his poll numbers go back up.
But people are pretty consistent. My "wild guesses" are based on the bulk of very questionable things about Obama, which largely have not been presented to the public in a consistent and pattern establishing way. Right now, that's mainly because he's running against Clinton for the Dem nomination, and Clinton herself has more to lose by pounding on the issue too much then she has to gain. She's trying to win over the very voters who are most likely to not be alarmed by Obama's pattern of behavior.
The general election will be an entirely different animal though. There, it wont be mostly just Liberal voters who need to be convinced, so the gloves will largely come off and these things, which are alarming to those in the middle and the right will be presented in a more pattern revealing manner then they have so far. You'll see constant talk about the consistency with which he shows bad judgment in a whole variety of areas. Wright is just one of many aspects of this. Any one of which is minor seeming, and has been presented so far individually (and so hasn't had much impact). When you start getting pundits on TV listing off all of them at once, it'll have a major impact.
To me, this is no more "wild" of a guess then guessing that if it's cloudy, more people might bring an umbrella to work then would otherwise. Politics is a game of numbers and all of these issues will cause a significant dent in Obama's once the nomination process is completed.
Quote:
The question was whether or not Obama was seriously harmed by the Wright thing. Given that he has regained his opinion lead past Clinton and now tied (slightly above) with McCain, it would seem not. I'm not arguing that it proves either will win the general.
Sure. But those are poll numbers *today*, when he's running for the nomination. Those poll numbers don't yet reflect the whole story. Not even close.
I suppose if you specify whether or not it hurt him for the nomination, you'd be correct. It didn't hurt him much. But I believe it has hurt him if/when he gets to the general election, and will hurt him even more down the line as more scrutiny is applied to him.
Guess it just depends on what you're looking at right now...