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The end of NATO?Follow

#1 Feb 11 2008 at 3:33 AM Rating: Good
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The US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, appealed directly to Europeans yesterday to support the war in Afghanistan, warning that violence and terrorism would increase if Nato was defeated there.

Mr Gates said that the transatlantic alliance was under such stress over operations in Afghanistan that it risked imploding. Speaking in Munich to an audience that included presidents, foreign and defence ministers of many EU countries, Mr Gates acknowledged serious shortcomings in Nato operations in Afghanistan.

This was because the alliance was not working properly together to share the burden, he said.

Mr Gates's words took to a new, and far more acute, level arguments that have become ever sharper in recent months and culminated at an ill-tempered Nato summit in Lithuania last week. While the disputes at the Vilnius summit remained mostly behind closed doors, however, Mr Gates brought them loudly into the open at Munich.


Linky.

Strong words, but he does raise some important points.

Set-up during the early days of the Cold War to counter the Soviet threat, what is the point of NATO today? Has it become a "Western Army", sent to fight wars for the West, when the UN can't/won't get involved? Does NATO even have any legitimacy today?

And if the other Western countries involved aren't willing to actively fight and suffer casualties, what's in it for the US? Why be constrained by NATO's chain of command, and its unelpful allies, when they can make as hoc coalitions?

Then you add the fact that the EU is keen to develop its own army (should be ready in 2192), that there is no real threat from an Eastern block anymore, and it's difficult to see how NATO will survive the next couple of decades, or even why it should.

No?

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#2 Feb 11 2008 at 4:03 AM Rating: Good
NATO's reply to any crisis is "More American Troops".


NATO has been ineffective for quite some time IMO.
#3 Feb 11 2008 at 4:19 AM Rating: Good
Rimesume wrote:
NATO's reply to any crisis is "More American Troops".


Well, technically, it's:

"More European troops!! No? You sure? Come on guys... Last chance... Ok, more US troops then Smiley: glare"

Quote:
NATO has been ineffective for quite some time IMO.


They did ok in the Balkans, which was their first realy post Cold War test. Though of course Europeans were more willing to send troops then, since the conflict was in their backwater.

I think the effectiveness is linked to the purpose. If European countries pick and choose which NATO-led conflicts they send troops to, then NATO isn't much more useful than an ad hoc coalition. Afghanistan is the best exemple: the number of troops sent by EU countries isn't linked to the military needs of the campaign, but by the domestic public opinion of each country. And not only is that obviously not the best way to achieve military success. Which then leaves NATO as not much more than a blanket assurance of military help in case of invasion.

Which, within Europe, is quite unlikely anyway.
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#4 Feb 11 2008 at 4:36 AM Rating: Decent
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It will be interesting to see if Sarkozy actually commits french troops to Kandahar to help the Canandians. It will be even more interesting to see if the Canadians keep their word and pull out if they don't get the help they requested.

Of course with the inevitable spring election that Harper is trying to orchestrate everything is up in the air.
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#5 Feb 11 2008 at 4:45 AM Rating: Decent
RedPhoenixxx wrote:
Rimesume wrote:
NATO's reply to any crisis is "More American Troops".


Well, technically, it's:

"More European troops!! No? You sure? Come on guys... Last chance... Ok, more US troops then Smiley: glare"




I feel it still defeats the purpose of NATO.


#6 Feb 11 2008 at 4:51 AM Rating: Decent
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#7 Feb 11 2008 at 4:53 AM Rating: Decent
bodhisattva wrote:
Protecting us from the threat of Stalin?


America bought it's way out of that mess. We were simply able to afford more than the U.S.S.R was able to keep up with.
#8 Feb 11 2008 at 5:14 AM Rating: Good
bodhisattva wrote:
It will be interesting to see if Sarkozy actually commits french troops to Kandahar to help the Canandians.


I think he will, the only question is whether what he commits makes any difference. The signs are pretty positive, though. Sarko is an Atlantist, and has even mooted the idea of France re-joining the military command of Nato.

But yeah, domestic Canadian politics might still make all this purely academic.

Rime wrote:
I feel it still defeats the purpose of NATO.


I totally agree. Eventhough NATO's purpose has had to change, it has become primarily a "Western intervention force". If 2/3rd of the Western bit can't be bothered to send troops, it's pretty pointless...
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#9 Feb 11 2008 at 5:53 AM Rating: Excellent
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I've been fairly cynical about NATO in terms of a world police army for a while, solidified by Dallaire's book about Rwanda. Countries that want to be policy players refuse to send troops at all, or they send them with a change of clothes and no training and depend on NATO to outfit and train them.

The description of the bureaucratic morass was pretty disheartening, as well. Obviously it was one person's point of view, and one stressed-out person at that.
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#10 Feb 11 2008 at 6:44 AM Rating: Good
NATO still exists in order to keep America in Europe, to ultimately provide for a single common defense for Europeans instead of a bunch of smaller alliances that will ultimately just cost more money, and to provide more attractive opportunities for foreign investment.

By keeping America in Europe, you're ensuring that the ties across the ocean won't get displaced by other countries or regions of the world, such as Asia or the Pacific. This also helps keep America tied economically with Europe for trade and such.

When it comes to defense, Europe has historically established alliances with other European countries for defense. If we did not have NATO, we would have two or three competing alliances within the European continent that would start to raise tensions back up again (even if it's a little).

Lastly, with NATO membership, a nation becomes more attractive for foreign investment, since that nation is tied now to the West, and it will have a foreign and domestic policy that will be more likely to fall in line somewhat with the West. In addition, by being a part of NATO, it helps to ensure better economic ties between it and other alliance members (going back to point one, keeping America in Europe) that won't be endangered with the coming of an international crisis.

NATO is still needed today, in my opinion, for these reasons. Maybe when the EU becomes more assertive and can control it's own defense and whatnot, then NATO might be replaceable.

But that's not anytime soon.
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#11 Feb 11 2008 at 6:56 AM Rating: Good
Nightsintdreams, pet mage of Jabober wrote:
By keeping America in Europe, you're ensuring that the ties across the ocean won't get displaced by other countries or regions of the world, such as Asia or the Pacific. This also helps keep America tied economically with Europe for trade and such.


I'm not sure about this argument. I don't think economic or cultural ties between the EU and the US would weaken if NATO disintegrated. There are plenty of other institution that would ensure these ties remain.

In addition, these "other ties" will develop regardless of NATO.

Quote:
If we did not have NATO, we would have two or three competing alliances within the European continent that would start to raise tensions back up again (even if it's a little).


No. Most likely we'd have an embyonic EU army, that wouldn't do anything at first. But the days of having different and competing military alliances within the EU is pretty much over.

Though, your point is more relevant when it comes to Turkey, who's in NATO but not in the EU, and is an indispensible ally. It's true that if NATO broke up, we'd lose this alliance with Turkey.

Quote:
Lastly, with NATO membership, a nation becomes more attractive for foreign investment, since that nation is tied now to the West, and it will have a foreign and domestic policy that will be more likely to fall in line somewhat with the West.


That might be true for eastern european countries that were part of the Soviet Union, or were satellite states. But once again, the EU, the WTO, the IMF, the globalised economy, all these things take care of all those non-military alliances.

I agree with you that from the point of view of many small EU countries, NATO is a great safety net. But I'm not too sure what teh US gains from it all when its partners are so reluctant to commit troops.
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#12 Feb 11 2008 at 7:07 AM Rating: Good
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With the rate at which the global economy is expanding, I'm not sure that NATO serves to tie any country to the US any more than businesses do on their own. After all, US firms don't limit their trade to NATO countries.

In all honesty, the only thing that the US would lose by leaving NATO (which would likely cause it to dissolve) would be the moral support.
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#13 Feb 11 2008 at 7:14 AM Rating: Decent
Allow me to reiterate, the US government should look out for for American interests. Fundamentally, I don't believe there is anything wrong with that. However to slap the title "NATO operation" when it is mostly American effort is worthless gesture. The idea, correct me if I'm wrong, of world governments coalition is to protect the interests of all nations involved, including (but not limited to) the US.


So, if something is in the best interests of the US and of NATO, yet most of the forces provided are US military, isn't it easy for enemies of the NATO directive to point the finger at the US?


This is where I think the fundamental flaw in NATO lies, there cannot be NATO without 100% of each government supporting it.

#14 Feb 11 2008 at 7:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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I've always thought of NATO as more of a joint-defense alliance rather than a European/American* Army. While the Balkans was a noble cause, it seemed to overstep the idea of NATO in the first place, likewise Afghanistan. I get the impression that many of the host nations feel the same way, hence their reluctance to send substantial numbers into regions where NATO took an offensive stance.

I think it still serves purpose in that an attack on one European nation is a de facto attack on all of Europe and America but I doubt its effectiveness as an offensive force.


*Including Canada
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#15 Feb 11 2008 at 7:37 AM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
I think it still serves purpose in that an attack on one European nation is a de facto attack on all of Europe and America but I doubt its effectiveness as an offensive force.


But do you think it would survive purely as a joint-defensive alliance?

Because it would not be called into action very often as an "army". Wouldn't it become purely a treaty, meaning NATO would be an insurance policy and a talking-shop? Some might find it expensive to keep an active NATO command and structure if it'll only be used when one of its members is directly attacked by another state. In many ways, doing that would bring NATO back to its original purpose, without the original "ennemy".
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#16 Feb 11 2008 at 8:00 AM Rating: Excellent
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RedPhoenixxx wrote:
But do you think it would survive purely as a joint-defensive alliance?

Because it would not be called into action very often as an "army". Wouldn't it become purely a treaty, meaning NATO would be an insurance policy and a talking-shop? Some might find it expensive to keep an active NATO command and structure if it'll only be used when one of its members is directly attacked by another state. In many ways, doing that would bring NATO back to its original purpose, without the original "ennemy".
Well, there's a reason Russia still ******* every time one of its ex-satellites asks to join the NATO Club and we have China on the rise and Iran testing missiles. And the slow collapse of Pakistan. So I think a joint-defensive alliance is still worth the expense.

As for Afghanistan, NATO agreed to get involved so I do feel that the European nations should be pulling their weight. I won't pretend to be qualified to say exactly what that should entail.
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#17 Feb 11 2008 at 8:05 AM Rating: Excellent
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Jophiel wrote:
RedPhoenixxx wrote:
But do you think it would survive purely as a joint-defensive alliance?

Because it would not be called into action very often as an "army". Wouldn't it become purely a treaty, meaning NATO would be an insurance policy and a talking-shop? Some might find it expensive to keep an active NATO command and structure if it'll only be used when one of its members is directly attacked by another state. In many ways, doing that would bring NATO back to its original purpose, without the original "ennemy".
Well, there's a reason Russia still ******* every time one of its ex-satellites asks to join the NATO Club and we have China on the rise and Iran testing missiles. And the slow collapse of Pakistan. So I think a joint-defensive alliance is still worth the expense.

As for Afghanistan, NATO agreed to get involved so I do feel that the European nations should be pulling their weight. I won't pretend to be qualified to say exactly what that should entail.
/nods

Most of my thoughts have been said here (I thought Nightsintdreams made a few salient points).

I just think that in the absence of a single bogeyman state like we had in the cold war, the political pressure for NATO members to play fair has diluted, leaving USA, Canada & UK to carry the continental Europeans who sit drinking coffee and reading about we Anglophones getting our bottoms shot off in Afghansville.

And don't forget that with WW2 still in living memory for some, the thought of ze chermans mobilising a large force still feels creepy.
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#18 Feb 11 2008 at 8:12 AM Rating: Decent
Nobby wrote:
/nods

Most of my thoughts have been said here (I thought Nightsintdreams made a few salient points).

I just think that in the absence of a single bogeyman state like we had in the cold war, the political pressure for NATO members to play fair has diluted, leaving USA, Canada & UK to carry the continental Europeans who sit drinking coffee and reading about we Anglophones getting our bottoms shot off in Afghansville.

And don't forget that with WW2 still in living memory for some, the thought of ze chermans mobilising a large force still feels creepy.


yes i agree.

now on a side note of this, what do you think of Puttin's attempts to "bring back" the cold war with his threat at a military build up again due to NATO and the EU "ignoring Russia's" needs?


IMHO NATO has been worthless since the fall of the old USSR. 80% of the troop actions have been supplied by the USA with most of the countries either not suppling troops at all or a pathetic amount of troops to not be worth counting. We are talking less then a company in most cases (company being at least 4 squads of 8 - 15 men).

As for the "financial and political" ties between the US and EU i do not see them getting worse then they are not under GW Bush and our next pres with or without NATO.

As for small collisions of EU countries forming causing strife, that very well could happen, but i doubt that strife will be aimed at other native EU countries, but could be aimed at allies of other collisions. that could cause strife like WWI.

As for losing ties with Turkey, Turkey has to much to lose if they break ties off with the west and they know it. no way they would risk cutting ties with the west if NATO were to dissolve.

either way i do not feel it would be a bad thing to see NATO go the way of the dodo bird, but i do agree something needs to replace it.

if countries are not willing to do their fair share of the work, then they should be kicked out of NATO and be striped of the benefits they have gained as being a member of that organization. call it something different what ever, but if you do not play, you do not benefit.
#19 Feb 11 2008 at 8:24 AM Rating: Excellent
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Singdall wrote:
if countries are not willing to do their fair share of the work, then they should be kicked out of NATO and be striped of the benefits they have gained as being a member of that organization. call it something different what ever, but if you do not play, you do not benefit.
I can see how that makes sense to a US citizen, but not to Europeans.

And no, I'm not diCking around with that comment, but the only sanction available would be to say "If you're invaded or attacked we'll sit & watch". The reason EU's would never even contemplate that is that our experience of WW2 was very different to the US.

Firstly, our towns and cities were occupied and/or regularly bombed, so the impact was on our entire populations, not just on the military. Apart from Pearl Harbor and the WTC, USA has remained relatively intact. Here in England, for example, everyone I know lost Grandparents, Great-Grandparents or other relatives to Adolf's bombs and incendiaries. It makes for a less gung-ho attitude to military action.

Secondly, the attackers weren't from a distant strange land, but the neighbours we'd been chummy with until '39. (And yes, but for US intervention, we'd all be speaking cherman, and who knows how the world would look now)

I agree NATO needs fixing, but it will need highly skilled diplomacy to fix it; not the blunt instrument of threats or sanctions.

Who knows, after the next US election, USA might try to remember what diplomacy is and not rely merely on brute force and hard currency.
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#20 Feb 11 2008 at 8:30 AM Rating: Default
nobby, my point is if you are part of a military organization and refuse to send military force of any measurable amount, then you should not be part of that organization. it is rather simple really. or at least should not benefit from said organization if you do not participate.

yes EU had a different perspective in WWI and WWII then the US simply by its nature and location. in both major wars without the US you would be speaking german right now anyways, or russian for that matter.

so why is it that the US has to bail you out of everything and risk our boys in a fight but you get to sit there and not risk that?

yes your cities and towns face threat, well then do something about that threat instead of calling out the world police force to fix it for you?

that is my point. yes diplomacy must be used (see my comment on things not getting worse ...) but action needs to be taken by the EU members of NATO for it to remain a valid force.
#21 Feb 11 2008 at 8:33 AM Rating: Excellent
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OK, we broadly agree, but

Singdall wrote:
so why is it that the US has to bail you out of everything and risk our boys in a fight but you get to sit there and not risk that?
Don't tar us Brits with the same brush as the greasy continentals. We're pulling our weight alongside the yanks. Smiley: glare
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#22 Feb 11 2008 at 8:36 AM Rating: Good
Singdall wrote:
so why is it that the US has to bail you out of everything and risk our boys in a fight but you get to sit there and not risk that?




After serving both directly with, and indirectly with UK forces, I will honestly tell you that UK servicemen are on the same page as American military.


If there is ANYTHING UK, American, and Canadian forces can agree upon, it's the betterment of world security. The only reason I post this is because I've served (and drank) with UK, and Canadian Navies. Outstanding sailors the lot of them are.



Almost as good as us US Sailors are.







Sorry, had to throw that last, and little tidbit of information in there.
#23 Feb 11 2008 at 8:41 AM Rating: Good
Singdall wrote:
nobby, my point is if you are part of a military organization and refuse to send military force of any measurable amount, then you should not be part of that organization.


You also have to be realistic. Estonia and Latvia, for example, can only contribute so much to a war. And yet, they are the countries that feel they need NATO the most, because of the Soviet threat on their doorstep and their shared history. NATO is not just about contribution of soldiers to offensive warfare, its also a geopolitical tool to solidify and crystalise stability in cerain parts of the world.

I don't think the question should be "contribute or you're out", but rather to ask what purpose NATO should serve today. It can't be effective if it tries to be everything. Especially so if some aspects are clearly not working.

NATO as defensive pact doesn't need much contribution from Estonia, except financially. NATO as an offensive Western army, though, requires a higher degree of contribution from its members for it to be fit for purpose. And today, NATO has its **** between those two chairs.

So, imo, its not a "put up or shut up" problem, but a "what the heel do we want out of this?" problem.
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#24 Feb 11 2008 at 8:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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RedPhoenixxx wrote:
NATO as defensive pact doesn't need much contribution from Estonia, except financially.
Well, they also provide a deeping of the "eastern front" but that doesn't so much require troops as much as just allowing us to stage there if need be.

Also, they might have some Soviet-era prisons we can use.
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#25 Feb 11 2008 at 11:32 AM Rating: Good
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If all we need to garner from the (eastern) European nations is political support, we can easily do that without the pretense of a full-blown military alliance.

Quote:
Who knows, after the next US election, USA might try to remember what diplomacy is and not rely merely on brute force and hard currency.

Both avenues seem to have worked up until this point, especially economic pressures. It's amazing how powerful you can influence a government just by exporting IT call centers to them.

As some famous guy somewhere once said, "War is politics by other means."

It was probably Oscar Wilde, but then again, every quote is attributed to him.
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#26 Feb 11 2008 at 11:43 AM Rating: Good
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Our current US political environment isn't so far off cold war hysteria. I remember talking with friends in 1991 about how with the fall of communism, it will go from a Soviet/US Split to a north/south split with other center of power being in the middle east. While the various organizations like Al Quaeda certainly don't rival the USSR in any sense of the word, the spectre of that kind of terror and its ability to cast all political alliances in terms of the vigorousness of their opposition or alliance with various middle eastern groups is very much like the cold war. It makes sense given the current administration's ties to intelligence agencies during the cold war.

Because of this, NATO certainly has a role on some level, though the current administration has erred too much in alienating the EU, but they have at least a role in upholding the propaganda of the Western Powers protecting the "free world," even if it can't maintain a military alliance.



Edited, Feb 11th 2008 2:44pm by Annabella
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