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#52 Feb 06 2008 at 5:40 PM Rating: Decent
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Atomicflea wrote:
Hey gbaji, who's your horse on the pubbie side? If I had to guess, I'd say Huckabee.


You're supposed to say "tee hee" or something to indicate that you're joking...
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#53 Feb 06 2008 at 5:42 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Atomicflea wrote:
Hey gbaji, who's your horse on the pubbie side? If I had to guess, I'd say Huckabee.


You're supposed to say "tee hee" or something to indicate that you're joking...
You're supposed to answer the question, but here we are, two wacky rebels.

Huckabee is just the most charismatic and yet heinous character I can imagine, so I thought you'd worship at his altar. Romney, then?
#54 Feb 06 2008 at 5:58 PM Rating: Good
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trickybeck wrote:
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The more significant number is that in California 43% of registered voters are Democrats, 34% are Republicans, and 23% are "other" (at least according to CNNs page). This means that a Republican who appeals to the middle can most certainly win California,

The more significant number is that by your math, the Republican would have to win 70% of the undecideds to win in that case.



Well, let's be clear here. People tend to talk about "undecideds" as though they all just haven't made up their minds, or don't particularly care that much and will vote for whomever sounds good when they're standing in the booth.

Most undecideds hold very strong and specific political views. They tend to be issues voters, and they tend to hold a combination of positions that don't mesh well with either party. So someone who's pro-gun control, pro-life, likes medicaid, but doesn't like income assistance (wellfare) programs, etc.. might find themselves in this category. It's a mistake to assume that they don't care, and it's important to understand that they can be significantly swayed by someone with the right positions on the issues they care about most.

Undecideds also tend to be far more likely to vote "against" someone then "for" someone. Since they don't totally agree with 100% of the politics of either party, they're more concerned about a party gaining power and doing something they don't want then pushing power to a "side" that'll do what they want (cause they know that neither party will do exactly what they want). So it becomes about the lesser of two evils in many of their minds.


On the specifics of a McCain v Obama race in California, McCain is a much more moderate candidate then Obama. Obama's power lies in being the "most liberal" of the Dem candidates, and being the guy who'll actually do many of the things that Dems have been promising for decades. His positions just don't resonate with Californians as much. The excitement that he needs to push his victory isn't going to grab the laid-back crowd here. And it most certainly will push away far more undecideds then it attracts.


I think California definitely goes up for grabs if it's McCain vs Obama.
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#55 Feb 06 2008 at 6:07 PM Rating: Good
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Atomicflea wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Atomicflea wrote:
Hey gbaji, who's your horse on the pubbie side? If I had to guess, I'd say Huckabee.


You're supposed to say "tee hee" or something to indicate that you're joking...
You're supposed to answer the question, but here we are, two wacky rebels.

Huckabee is just the most charismatic and yet heinous character I can imagine, so I thought you'd worship at his altar. Romney, then?



You didn't read the last 2 or 3 times we had a discussion about Huckabee and I said that he's not really a Conservative, but is a religious Liberal? The only twinkling of defense I've given him is that I think he gets far more bad rap for not being fiscally conservative enough. IMO, his fiscal policies are fine, it's his social ones that I'm worried about.

In the larger picture, he'll drive away moderate voters. In fact, you heard it here first: If the Republican ticket ends up McCain/Huckabee, one of the key opposing arguments by Dem politicos will be to observe that McCain is old the therefore we'd be a single heartbeat away from having a religious right guy in the oval office (along with diatribes about how he'd make abortion illegal nationwide as though the President actually has the power to do that, and force us all to pray to Jesus in our schools, etc...). Mark my words, that'll pop up if that situation happens.


I actually voted for Romney in the primary, not out of any particularly greater like for him then McCain. I happen to think he's a bit more representative of real conservative values (not the made up ones we hear so much about). He's got a good economic background, and has shown that he can succeed in an executive role. Also, with the exception of the whole "OMG! He's pro-choice" (which obviously isn't a big deal to me as a pro-choice conservative), he doesn't have any particular "dings" against him.

McCain will be a harder sell to the hardliners then he will be to moderate voters. Which is a picklement all by itself. I actually think he has the best chance to win of any likely Republican candidate at this point. Honestly though, either one of those two would be an acceptable Republican president IMO. McCains willingness to overly compromise (and uncertainty as to the degree to which that may or may not spill over to an executive role) was basically the tipping factor for me. It's not a huge deal either way. Either one of them would be far far far preferred over any of the Dem candidates in my mind (duh!).
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#56 Feb 06 2008 at 6:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
I think California definitely goes up for grabs if it's McCain vs Obama.
Hold on to that dream.
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#57 Feb 06 2008 at 6:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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In related news, Obama has been making fairly significant inroads with the Latino voting community. I think he'll do just fine in sunny California when the time comes.

Edited, Feb 6th 2008 8:17pm by Jophiel
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#58 Feb 06 2008 at 6:27 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
You didn't read the last 2 or 3 times we had a discussion about Huckabee
Nope, homeslice. I sure didn't.
#59 Feb 06 2008 at 6:32 PM Rating: Decent
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If the Republican ticket ends up McCain/Huckabee


Zero chance.


I actually voted for Romney in the primary, not out of any particularly greater like for him then McCain.


Obviously. He's your ideal candidate, no actual positions on anything, He can never be wrong!
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#60 Feb 06 2008 at 6:41 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
In related news, Obama has been making fairly significant inroads with the Latino voting community. I think he'll do just fine in sunny California when the time comes.


Lol. You're going by a speculative article that seems to be trying desperately to put a positive spin on Obama being 20+ points behind Clinton with Latino voters. And I love how the author specifically avoids talking about the California results:

Quote:
Obama won important Latino votes -- and delegates -- in Colorado, Arizona and other states where Clinton was expected to overwhelm him. With the support of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez and other members of the Latino political machine nurtured by her husband, the former President, Clinton won more than 60% of the Latino electorate in states like New Jersey and New York. And regardless of the final tallies in California, the Latino electorate has already proven to be a powerful, new and greatly misunderstood segment of the no longer solely black and white electorate of the United States.



Let's look at those "final tallies" here in sunny California:

 
By Age and Race            Clinton     Obama 
Latino 18-29               67%         32% 
 	 	 	 	 	  
Latino 30-44               62%         37% 
	 	 	 	 	 	  
Latino 45-59               72%         26% 
	 	 	 	 	 	  
Latino 60 and Older        81%         17% 



When the absolute best differential is 62/37 (slightly better then half), that's should be a huge warning sign. Latinos in California overwhelmingly supported Clinton over Obama. Again, the key question is whether that's because they liked Clinton more for some reason, or didn't like Obama (or just didn't care but randomly choose to vote for Clinton which seems unlikely). Presumably, there is some reason why Latinos overwhelmingly preferred Clinton over Obama, and if you don't think that'll have an impact in the general election here if Obama ends up being the Dem nominee, you're crazy.


Let me be clear again. I'm just speculating here. However, Obama is the "worst" candidate the Dems have for taking California and McCain is the "best" candidate the Reps have. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it should be giving some in the Dem leadership pause.
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#61 Feb 06 2008 at 6:45 PM Rating: Decent
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Obama is the "worst" candidate the Dems have for taking California and McCain is the "best" candidate the Reps have.



No. Well, yes on McCain, because he's the *only* candidate the GOP has. No, however, on Obama, and it's not close at all.

Only a mentally crippled rasicst would assume that Latinos who voted for Clinton are suddenly going to vote for McCain instead of Obama in a general election. White guys in San Diego, sure. but who cares, their votes have been meaningless for decades now.
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#62 Feb 06 2008 at 6:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:

If the Republican ticket ends up McCain/Huckabee


Zero chance.


Well. I'd say higher then zero, but whatever. I did say "if". :)

Oddly, I have heard numerous pundits talk about exactly this ticket, with the suggestion that Huckabee would bring in key southern votes votes. I'm not sure how much of that is the pundits doing the usual "conservative values==religious" thing though, so who knows?...


On the other hand, a McCain/Hunter ticket would definitely put California in play. Hunter doesn't bring much to the national election though, so that's kinda questionable.

I doubt McCain would take Romney as his VP. A bit too much bad blood on this trail so far, although you never know.



Quote:

I actually voted for Romney in the primary, not out of any particularly greater like for him then McCain.


Obviously. He's your ideal candidate, no actual positions on anything, He can never be wrong!


No. He's a good conservative because he doesn't define himself by issues. It's not about not "having a position", but that the position itself isn't about being "for" or "against" one thing all the time no matter what. Being a conservative should always be about knowing when and where different levels of the government should or should not act.

You've just defined "having a position" as wanting the same thing with regard to that issue no matter what level of government or what branch of government. That's simply not what conservatives are about. So yeah, Romney holds some appeal to me because he seems to actually "get it".
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#63 Feb 06 2008 at 6:53 PM Rating: Decent
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Being a conservative should always be about knowing when and where different levels of the government should or should not act.


You mean arbitrarily in ways that make wealthy white heterosexual men more money by denying anyone else very opportunity or liberty wherever possible? That sounds about right.
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#64 Feb 06 2008 at 6:54 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
trickybeck wrote:
[quote]The more significant number is that in California 43% of registered voters are Democrats, 34% are Republicans, and 23% are "other" (at least according to CNNs page). This means that a Republican who appeals to the middle can most certainly win California,

The more significant number is that by your math, the Republican would have to win 70% of the undecideds to win in that case.

Smiley: laugh

Of course.

Undecideds are all Republican. Where it matters. Of course. Smiley: laugh

#65 Feb 06 2008 at 6:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Lol. You're going by a speculative article
Wait. As opposed to your wild-*** guesses? I mean, at least that guy has a paying gig making wild guesses. You're still strictly amateur.
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#66 Feb 06 2008 at 7:06 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
Only a mentally crippled rasicst would assume that Latinos who voted for Clinton are suddenly going to vote for McCain instead of Obama in a general election. White guys in San Diego, sure. but who cares, their votes have been meaningless for decades now.


Lol. I love how you can toss an ad-hominum into any sentence without even breaking a sweat. Your own superpower?

You're also completely missing the key issue:

The people voting in the general election are not going to be the same exact people (and only those people) who voted in the primary. It's not that the exact same Latino voters who voted for Clinton in the primary would decide to vote for McCain instead of Obama. There are voters who only vote in general elections. There are some voters who vote in primaries, but if "their guy" didn't win, they don't bother to vote in the general.

You don't have to assume anything about any particular voter to look at those primary numbers and see that Clinton would do better against McCain with Latinos in California then Obama will. Period. Clearly, there was some reason why twice as many Latinos in this state wanted Clinton as their nominee instead of Obama. Obviously, there's no way to know to what degree that may affect the general election, but it absolutely will. It's a statistical certainty.


The only real question is: "how much?".
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#67 Feb 06 2008 at 7:08 PM Rating: Excellent
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However, Obama is the "worst" candidate the Dems have for taking California and McCain is the "best" candidate the Reps have.
You've failed to make any case though that the "worst" Democrat would lose in CA against the "best" Republican. You can keep saying "It might happen!" but that's not real convincing.
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#68 Feb 06 2008 at 7:13 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
You mean arbitrarily in ways that make wealthy white heterosexual men more money by denying anyone else very opportunity or liberty wherever possible? That sounds about right.


No. I mean in ways that follow the actual Constitution. You know, the methods that treat everyone equally instead of treating them unequally in order to ensure that they all end up with the same amount of "stuff" no matter what choices or actions they take.


That's being "conservative". See. I love it when our conversations gets to this point, and your Liberal "mask" slips off. You know. The one where you pretend it's about helping the poor, and feeding the hungry, and reveal that what it really is all about for you is taking away people's freedom to be themselves and succeed (or fail) by their own merits and replacing it with a state that tells everyone what they can do and how much they can have.


Love it really...
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#69 Feb 06 2008 at 7:14 PM Rating: Decent
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The people voting in the general election are not going to be the same exact people (and only those people) who voted in the primary. It's not that the exact same Latino voters who voted for Clinton in the primary would decide to vote for McCain instead of Obama. There are voters who only vote in general elections.


No, you're missing the point. Democratic voters who voted in the primary are close to ambivalent about who wins. Democrats who didn't vote COULDN'T CARE LESS if it's Obama or Clinton, they'd vote for EITHER. Get it? Me and and Nexa, Joph and Flea et all are to the wild extreme end of the activist wing of the Democratic party. Obama kills Clinton with "independent" primary voters, he has the broader appeal. He's less polarizing to the whack job wing of your party than Hillary. There is absolutely nothing about him that makes him less electable in a general election unless you think his race is the primary consideration.

Now, while that might keep you from voting for someone, and many of your ilk, it's not going to be enough to motivate the snake handlers to come out and vote for a guy who they largely despise. They'll sit on their hand or, even possibly (oh please please please please) find a semi- viable snake oil merchant to represent them outside the party. Hillary, on the other hand, might be enough to get them to vote and to give money.

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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#70 Feb 06 2008 at 7:16 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Quote:
However, Obama is the "worst" candidate the Dems have for taking California and McCain is the "best" candidate the Reps have.
You've failed to make any case though that the "worst" Democrat would lose in CA against the "best" Republican. You can keep saying "It might happen!" but that's not real convincing.


I'm sorry. When exactly did I say that?

IIRC, all I said was that the huge gap among Latino voters in California between Clinton and Obama would be a factor for the party to consider. Right alongside the whole "But Obama did better then Clinton in red states, so that might put them more in play".


Funny. You didn't argue with me when the exact same argument was reversed and we all agreed that this would give Obama a chance to take some traditional red states. Strange, huh?...
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#71 Feb 06 2008 at 7:24 PM Rating: Good
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The one where you pretend it's about helping the poor, and feeding the hungry, and reveal that what it really is all about for you is taking away people's freedom to be themselves and succeed (or fail) by their own merits and replacing it with a state that tells everyone what they can do and how much they can have.


I think you have me confused with someone else. I don't pretend anything. Let me be clear:

The wealthy in this country have become so OVERWHELMINGLY through the virtue of who's ****** they fell out of. Not because of merit.

Those people have an obligation to redistribute this wealth they have not earned to those who haven't shared in the same opportunity.

Every human being on the planet deserves a basic level of support, including food, shelter, health care, education, infrastructure, electricity, quiet enjoyment, etc. REGARDLESS of their income level, social status, "contribution" to the larger society or what have you. You know, the same level of services we provide to prisoners.

The aggregate wealth of this nation is sufficient to provide a standard of living to all of it's citizens that vastly out paces the suffering hand to mouth existence of most of the middle class now. It's not ok or just or defensible in any way that one child should instantly inherit 100000 times the wealth at birth that another child will earn in a lifetime.

I'm a Socialist. I've not pretended to be something else, ever. I'm also pragmatic, and haven't ever pretended that a candidate who actually represents my views will ever be viable. So I vote for those most closely aligned with them.

It's not ******* rocket science.

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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#72 Feb 06 2008 at 7:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
Funny. You didn't argue with me when the exact same argument was reversed and we all agreed that this would give Obama a chance to take some traditional red states. Strange, huh?...
I said that Obama had the chance to take some southern red states because he turns out a record African-American vote. Not because he might steal black votes from McCain but because he generates them. You'll note that blacks are traditional Democratic voters anyway... it's the number of them turning out to vote which is the interesting facet.

Your argument is that Latinos who voted for Clinton will flip parties if Obama gets the nomination. Which is different from my statement regarding S. Carolina & Georgia.

Edited, Feb 6th 2008 9:31pm by Jophiel
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#73 Feb 06 2008 at 7:47 PM Rating: Decent
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Your argument is that Latinos who voted for Clinton will flip parties if Obama gets the nomination. Which is different from my statement regarding S. Carolina & Georgia.


Wait a god damn minute. Are you trying to imply that McCain doesn't turn out massive brown hordes of adoring vatos?
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To make a long story short, I don't take any responsibility for anything I post here. It's not news, it's not truth, it's not serious. It's parody. It's satire. It's bitter. It's angsty. Your mother's a *****. You like to jack off dogs. That's right, you heard me. You like to grab that dog by the bone and rub it like a ski pole. Your dad? Gay. Your priest? Straight. **** off and let me post. It's not true, it's all in good fun. Now go away.

#74 Feb 06 2008 at 8:13 PM Rating: Decent
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Smasharoo wrote:
No, you're missing the point. Democratic voters who voted in the primary are close to ambivalent about who wins. Democrats who didn't vote COULDN'T CARE LESS if it's Obama or Clinton, they'd vote for EITHER.


Sure. And they'll vote for a Republican if he appeals to them as well. Get it? The party faithful show up for primaries. Pretty much all of them. The idea that there's this huge voting block of people who'll vote Democrat no matter who's on the ticket so they don't bother to participate in the primary is utterly absurd.

While I'm sure there are *some* who just vote their party come election day, I'm quite sure that they are outnumbered significantly by the number of people who registered for a party simply because they had to and will vote for any random person on the day, and by people who vote in the primary because they want "their guy" to win, and then don't vote in the general if he/she doesn't.


Quote:
Obama kills Clinton with "independent" primary voters, he has the broader appeal. He's less polarizing to the whack job wing of your party than Hillary. There is absolutely nothing about him that makes him less electable in a general election unless you think his race is the primary consideration.


Wow. Can you be a bit more out of touch? The "whack job wing" of my party isn't going to vote for a Democrat no matter who it is. Just as you, Nexa, Joph, and Flea wont vote for a Republican no matter what. You get that right? You're making an irrelevant statement.

What does matter is that the moderate voters. The ones who actually make up the difference in the election will likely see Obama as a radical, while McCain is centrist.

What's funny is that you must already get this. You connected your list of people with the "extreme end" off the activist wing of the Democrat party. You're all wildly in favor of Obama, right? At the same time, you must see that McCain is *not* hugely supported by the "whack job wing" of the Republican party.

How do you think that will be viewed by moderates in the general election Smash? Clearly, they're going to lean McCain. It's overwhelmingly obvious that they will. And unless you magically believe that there are no moderate Latino voters (racist that you are! :) ), then the numbers from the primary are significant since they show that there's "something" that makes Clinton more popular with Latinos then Obama.

And that will play a factor in the general election. I simply don't see how anyone can't see this. How big a factor? I can't say. But those are big differentials...
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#75 Feb 06 2008 at 8:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
The idea that there's this huge voting block of people who'll vote Democrat no matter who's on the ticket so they don't bother to participate in the primary is utterly absurd.
There's a bloc on both sides who do exactly that. There's a reason why people are being surprised by the large turnouts this primary season -- usually, folks just don't bother. Even life-long Democratcic/Republican voters.
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#76 Feb 06 2008 at 8:23 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Funny. You didn't argue with me when the exact same argument was reversed and we all agreed that this would give Obama a chance to take some traditional red states. Strange, huh?...
I said that Obama had the chance to take some southern red states because he turns out a record African-American vote. Not because he might steal black votes from McCain but because he generates them. You'll note that blacks are traditional Democratic voters anyway... it's the number of them turning out to vote which is the interesting facet.


Sure. Turn that around. Does it not also stand to reason that if one candidate is significantly more popular with Latinos then another doesn't win the nomination that those Latinos will vote in lesser numbers as a result?

It's the same process. It works both ways. Obama brings out the african-american vote, giving him an edge in traditional red states. Obama does *not* bring out the Latino vote, so more of them stay home on election day, and the reverse happens in California.

It's just strange that you acknowledge that a candidates popularity with an ethnic group will increase voters from that ethnic group and therefore improve his party's chances, but then refuse to even entertain the possibility that a candidates lack of popularity with an ethnic group would cause the opposite effect.

Quote:
Your argument is that Latinos who voted for Clinton will flip parties if Obama gets the nomination. Which is different from my statement regarding S. Carolina & Georgia.


No. I didn't say that. That was Smash's strawman.
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