Handicap Super TuesdayFollow

I'm not doing a Republican edition 'cause McCain is going to take it.

Whole buncha delegates up for grab on Tuesday. Clinton started with a giant lead but Obama has narrowed it considerably in some key areas. Rasmussen shows Clinton with a slim 3% lead in California from 18-20% ten or so days ago*. Connecticut is tied now and Obama leads in Georgia & Alabama. Nationally, Clinton dropped from a 22% lead to ~6%. Still, Clinton has a significant bulwark in New York & New Jersey delegates which will destroy Obama's probable Illinois blow-out. Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally so a near tie in heavy delegate states is still something of a victory for the underdog.



*I know, "lolpolls". Clinton's last-minute gains in undecided NH voters aside, the polls have been fairly accurate. Enough so that I guarantee you that the candidates care about them.

I voted Slight Obama win. Not because I think that's what will happen, but because I hope so.

I voted for a slight Clinton win, because I want Obama, and I've literally never picked a winner.

I'm taking moderate Clinton win because, well, why the hell not.

I voted for slight Clinton win. Despite the fact that Florida doesn't count for anything, I think it's indicative of wider support than people currently thinks he has.

Can a moderator ban Clinton? I want that job

Well, I'm still predicting a slim Clinton lead but I'm surprised at how much Obama has destroyed Clinton's leads in the polls. Tied or leading in California, possibly doing well in NJ (the polls there are anywhere from Clinton +12 to tied), closing up MO and working on his "red state" strategy. And Gallup shows him leading nationally for the first time ever, including after his Iowa win.

Popular opinion seems to be that a near-tie for Obama is as good as a win. Clinton should have slammed this one shut but is showing weakness all over. If the race is a tie on Wednesday morning, the rest of the primaries are going to come in trickles giving Obama the chance to slowly campaign in each remaining state, something he seems to do better than Clinton. Clinton needs to reverse the polling trends pretty soon.

Edited, Feb 4th 2008 1:25pm by Jophiel

I voted for "Slight Obama" win as part of my own wishful thinking...but it's most certainly a possibility (perhaps even an inevitability?)

I was extremely impressed by Michelle Obama, by the way, in yesterday's rally. An extremely inspiring lady whom I think would make an excellent First Lady someday, without it being the "2 for 1" deal of the Clintons.

I think Obama is going to continue closing the gap between he and Clinton. I was formerly undecided between the two, but my decision to support Obama has become more solidified as I see more and more how he is conducting himself in this campaign. It's too bad my vote in FL didn't really "count". :P

However, to be honest, there isn't anyone left in the race that I would be deeply unhappy if they ended up in office. I just know who I'd prefer to have in there- and the trend I am seeing is that many people are starting to feel the same way.

I ordered her from the Ukraine. Since the Soviet collapse, they've been looking to get out of there by any means necessary.

"Ukrainian Posters Want To Meet American Forums..."

Off the cuff, I'd say the average age of the regular poster here is late 20's.

...and outliers that tend to skew the curve toward 'old'.

You do know that this Clinton is actually a woman dontcha?

Racist!

You're getting annoyed now aren't you. I can sense it.