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Irans Nukes.Follow

#1 Dec 04 2007 at 7:48 PM Rating: Good
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Nobody has posted about this as of yet, and even tho I know most people won't giva shit, I'm gonna bring it up anyways.

On Monday a new NIE was released in wich it was found that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program (such as it was) in 2003, and remains on hold. It also includes a lot of 'perhaps' and 'maybes' relating to future possibilities. It is an estimate after all.

This (the realisation that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons research) rather contradicts a lot of recent statements from the Whitehouse including the one from Bush where he said in October,

Quote:
"I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon,"


Scary rhetoric, indeed.

Anyway, it would now seem that Iran isn't pursuing nukes, any more than, say Belgium or, if you would prefer a more 'fundamentally' religeous comparison, Vatican City.

El Presidente, yesterday said....


Quote:
THE PRESIDENT: Here's what we know. We know that they're still trying to learn how to enrich uranium. We know that enriching uranium is an important step in a country who wants to develop a weapon. We know they had a program. We know the program is halted.
I think it is very important for the international community to recognize the fact that if Iran were to develop the knowledge that they could transfer to a clandestine program it would create a danger for the world. And so I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program. And the reason why it's a warning signal is that they could restart it. And the thing that would make a restarted program effective and dangerous is the ability to enrich uranium, the knowledge of which could be passed on to a hidden program.

And so it's a -- to me, the NIE provides an opportunity for us to rally the international community -- continue to rally the community to pressure the Iranian regime to suspend its program. (The same program that he says above has already been halted 3 years ago)
Link

The rest of the Q&A session is as fine a mangling of the English language as you would hope to find anywhere...worth a read just for the semantic contortions it contains.

Bush reckons that he didn't know about the new information until last week, even tho he was told of "new information" about Iran in August '07 during a briefing by Adm. Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence. "He didn't tell me what the information was. He did tell me it was going to take a while to analyze".

Seems somewhat odd to me that he would be so un-inquisitive about this info, when he is obviously fixated on Iran.....

Anyway, I think its interesting that a story like this can surface and the Fox network (when I looked) was leading with a story about violent video games.

Funny ol' world.

Edited, Dec 4th 2007 10:57pm by paulsol
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#2 Dec 04 2007 at 8:03 PM Rating: Good
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Well, at least we hadn't invaded them yet.
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#3 Dec 04 2007 at 8:53 PM Rating: Decent
So, you're basically ok with the idea that they can get better at refining uranium, getting more of and having a good sized stockpile so that when they do decide to build nukes they can have lots of them?

Oh yeah, I forgot. You're in a country only useful as a movie backdrop. Thanks for sharing an insightful opinion on world affairs.

Anyone from a part of the world that matters care to chime in?
#4 Dec 04 2007 at 9:31 PM Rating: Good
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Quote:
So, you're basically ok with the idea that they can get better at refining uranium, getting more of and having a good sized stockpile so that when they do decide to build nukes they can have lots of them?


No. Where did you get the idea that I was ok with it?

I don't think anyone should have nuclear weapons or, until someone figures out some of the safety concerns, nuclear power. I certainly don't think anyone should be hiding their nukes , and I especially don't think anyone should be using nukes. In any shape or form. ([red]Not safe for sensitive constitutions[/rd])


And just for the record, I'm also not 'ok' with dishonest dimwits like Bush and Co, using their lies and half-truths, to whip up a frenzy of distrust, ignorance and hatred, using phrases such as 'WWIII', and 'mushroom cloud over NY', when it is patently a load of bollox.

The crazy thing is, the last time most of us in the 'west' met a muslim, was when he was fixing your broken arm, or removing your appendix in your local hospital. Yet so many people are willing to believe that every last one of them should be incinerated on an industrial scale using the very WMD's that we are supposed to be 'saving' us from, for looking different than 'us'.





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#5 Dec 04 2007 at 10:13 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
No. Where did you get the idea that I was ok with it?

Mostly tone, context and editing for effect.
Quote:
And just for the record, I'm also not 'ok' with dishonest dimwits like Bush and Co, using their lies and half-truths, to whip up a frenzy of distrust, ignorance and hatred, using phrases such as 'WWIII', and 'mushroom cloud over NY', when it is patently a load of bollox.

We're Americans. If we didn't choke the ignorant with fear of death we'd lose to Democrats who choke them with fear of losing their jobs to people willing to work for $0.15 a week. Its not like the rest of the world where its ok to let the ignorant masses believe what they want to believe because the government has no real impact on the world stage. The last time we let the public choose a Democrat he decided to let Osama go free a couple of times so he could plan to drop 2 jets in the middle of Manhattan Island.
Quote:
The crazy thing is, the last time most of us in the 'west' met a muslim, was when he was fixing your broken arm, or removing your appendix in your local hospital. Yet so many people are willing to believe that every last one of them should be incinerated on an industrial scale using the very WMD's that we are supposed to be 'saving' us from, for looking different than 'us'.

And most muzzies are peaceful. Find me a better way of rooting out the ones that like to blow sh;t up and I'll advocate it. In the meantime, I'm all for turning the entire middle east in to a glass skatepark.
#6 Dec 04 2007 at 10:43 PM Rating: Good
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MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
In the meantime, I'm all for turning the entire middle east in to a glass skatepark.
Why do you hate Israel? Smiley: frown
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#7 Dec 05 2007 at 3:06 AM Rating: Excellent
Holy fUcking mother of Christ?!?!

Since when are you a sage?!
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#8 Dec 05 2007 at 3:24 AM Rating: Excellent
MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
Anyone from a part of the world that matters care to chime in?


Since I don't think anyone from China or India is gonna chime in, Old Europe is gonna have to do.

The problem is with the system we have in place:

The methods and mechanisms attached to the NPT to monitor weapon development and prevent the spread of nuclear technology, is totally indequate. The hypocrisy of having certain countries as "unofficial uclear countries". The lack of nuclear ******* reduction by Western countries. And, obviously, the spread of nuclear material from Russia and ex-soviet republics, as seen recently with this story.

The framework we have in place is totally inadequate. The logic behind it is 60 years old, and does not even remotely reflect the political landscape today. It's a a sham.

In many ways, Iran doesn't matter at this point. They are just the symptom of our broken NPT system. If it wasn't Iran, and it would be Lybia, Yemen, Syria, Myanmar... Not only that, but everyone knows that, in all likelihood, the next nuke won't be sent by a country, but by a terrorist group.

Which brings us back to the *system*. Attacking Iran is like saying the red is evil because fire burns. It's missing the point entirely. We have no idea how to deal with nuclear material and nuclear proliferation in such an open and fluid world. Not only that, but we refuse to even admit there is a fundemantal problem, and choose instead to fall back on those comforting notions of "good and evil".

It's stupid, weak, counter-productive. Like spitting into the wind. And that's before you take into account Russia's transformation, Pakistan instability, and the constant danger of Western-backed dictators (Mubarrak, the Sauds, Bouteflika, etc..) being overthrown.

You'd think, for once, on such an important topic, we wouldn't wait until the bombs goes off before we address the fundemantals of the problem. But we will. We'll stand there with our diCk in our hand trying to pretend its just a problem of "rogue states", and that we can bully countries into submission.

Iran is just a symptom. We need a completely new framework, new safeguards, new incentives, new commitments. A real renewed effort to put the most dangerous weapons on the planet under control, whilst allowing countries to enjoy the benefits of peaceful nuclear power.

And it would be awesome if we didn't have to wait for 2 million people to burn in agony before doing so.

But I'm not holding my breath
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#9 Dec 05 2007 at 3:35 AM Rating: Good
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Quote:
Holy ******* mother of Christ?!?!

Since when are you a sage?!


It happened just after I finished all my traits in LoTRo and the clocks went forward. Not sure if those events were connected tho....

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#10 Dec 05 2007 at 6:04 AM Rating: Good
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MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
We're Americans. If we didn't choke the ignorant with fear of death we'd lose to Democrats who choke them with fear of losing their jobs to people willing to work for $0.15 a week. Its not like the rest of the world where its ok to let the ignorant masses believe what they want to believe because the government has no real impact on the world stage. The last time we let the public choose a Democrat he decided to let Osama go free a couple of times so he could plan to drop 2 jets in the middle of Manhattan Island.
I love when Moe gets to be the US spokesperson.




Edited, Dec 5th 2007 3:04pm by Elinda
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#11 Dec 05 2007 at 7:41 AM Rating: Excellent
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Elinda, Star Breaker wrote:
MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
We're Americans. If we didn't choke the ignorant with fear of death we'd lose to Democrats who choke them with fear of losing their jobs to people willing to work for $0.15 a week. Its not like the rest of the world where its ok to let the ignorant masses believe what they want to believe because the government has no real impact on the world stage. The last time we let the public choose a Democrat he decided to let Osama go free a couple of times so he could plan to drop 2 jets in the middle of Manhattan Island.
I love when Moe gets to be the US spokesperson.


And I'm not sure how he got voted in, since he sucked in the swimsuit competition.
#12 Dec 05 2007 at 9:27 AM Rating: Decent
Redphoenixxx wrote:
words

Too much to read, European Gbaji. Bullet points, 3 of them (no more, no less), and some suggestions that don't require world consensus. Until then We'll keep our guns, thank you very much.
Quote:
I love when Moe gets to be the US spokesperson.

Better me than Shadowrealm.
Quote:
And I'm not sure how he got voted in, since he sucked in the swimsuit competition.

It was rigged. There's no way I am shaving my *** just for a thong.
#13 Dec 05 2007 at 9:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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Ruin a wet dream, why don'tcha.
#14 Dec 05 2007 at 9:33 AM Rating: Good
I said I wasn't shaving it for a thong. If its because you don't like hair in your nose, I'll wax that sucker silly.
#15 Dec 05 2007 at 9:43 AM Rating: Good
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Smiley: inlove
#16 Dec 05 2007 at 10:36 AM Rating: Good
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MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
Better me than Shadowrealm.
Damned with faint praise.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#17 Dec 05 2007 at 10:57 AM Rating: Decent
someday you will finally understand this whole mess in the middle east isnt about nukes, or even 9-11.

its about oil. controlling it, and guarenteeing a steady supply. nukes and 9-11 are just the door we used to pry our way in. if it wasnt those, it WOULD have been something else soon or later. more sooner than later in light of the last estimate for the worlds supply of oil was 100 years, and that was over 10 years ago and before china and other thiord world countries started their industrial revolution exponentially increasing demand on a fixed supply.

setting up a capitolist democracy guarentees those with the most cash will have the oil.

same stratagy we used to end the cold war. out spending russia. they couldnt afford to keep up with us, so alliing themselves with us was the only door left open to them. not gona work with china. especially in light of they are already taking our manufacturing industry away from us one company at a time. but china can be controlled if we controll their......energy......their oil.

out spend them in the middle east and china will fall too. but first the energy needs to be controlled by capitolists, not religious fanatics.

bottom line, Bush is right. this changed NOTHING about the way this addministraition plans on dealing with the rest of the hostile oil producing countries in the middle east. all it changes is the publics perception of WHY we are doing what we are doing. and since they really dont understand the WHY to begine with, thats not really an issue either. spit out some PR spinn and let the left and right bicker about it untill brittny spears runs her car into something else and they forget what they were fighting about.

welcome to politics in america. as long as they dont take our guns and pick up trucks away from us, its all good.
#18 Dec 05 2007 at 11:43 AM Rating: Good
I feel bad for anyone who thought that after the release of this new intelligence, Bush wouldn't stay the course.

If you are one of those people, My Name is Dr. Clement Okon from Nigeria, & I've got a business transaction I need your help with. Give me your bank account # and I'll give you 2 million USD...
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#19 Dec 05 2007 at 2:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Maybe it's an obvious question, but exactly how does one do diplomacy regarding the development of nuclear weapons *without* including some "scary rhetoric"?


The parts that seem to be left out when many people talk about this NIE is that it states that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 because of foreign pressures (ie: "scary rhetoric"). It's also important to note that "halting" a nuclear weapons program is not the same as "abandoning" one.

See. Because during the time that their program has been halted, they've continued to develop and build centrifuges for nuclear enrichment and to obtain nuclear materials that could be enriched and used in nuclear weapons.

So "halted", is a matter of perspective. I suppose in this context, it really means "not actively working to build bombs, but still developing the exact technology they'd need to build bombs if they decide to build them sometime later". It's a pretty esoteric distinction really.


It's really important to read *all* the findings in an NIE, not just pick and choose a handful of statements that appear to support a given position. As I've commented on many times before, NIEs are constructed in a "factual conclusion" format. They list various assessments in order of probability. For example, while this NIE states a high confidence that Iran halted it's nuclear weapons program in 2003, it places at only "moderate to high confidence" that Iran doesn't currently have a nuclear weapon (so they're less sure of that then the first fact). It also places at only a "moderate confidence" whether Iran has resumed its nuclear weapons program (ie: they're very sure they halted it in 2003, but aren't very sure that its still halted).


Don't just take one or two assessments out of an NIE. You'll miss the entire point if you do.
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#20 Dec 05 2007 at 2:07 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
exactly how does one do diplomacy regarding the development of nuclear weapons *without* including some "scary rhetoric"?
Hmm. Tricky one.

Long shot, but when your intelligence services confirm that a state does not have an active "Nucular" Armament programme, you acknowledge it. Smiley: rolleyes

That said, it's far easier to make statements about what 'might be'.

"I can confirm that there is no evidence that the USA currently plans to anally rape all left-handed people and boil every 1st-born child in chilli-oil, but of course, I cannot rule out that they may do so in the future."

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#21 Dec 05 2007 at 2:21 PM Rating: Default
Nobby wrote:
words

At least you didn't pretend to have an opinion that matters like you're from an important country or something.
#22 Dec 05 2007 at 2:22 PM Rating: Excellent
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I see Moe has found a new debating technique. All it requires is a couple fingers for your ears and the ability to chant "LALALALALA" really loud.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#23 Dec 05 2007 at 2:28 PM Rating: Good
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MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
Nobby wrote:
words

At least you didn't pretend to have an opinion that matters like you're from an important country or something.
Every parent gets a frisson of pride when their toddler learns to wipe its own *** and claims to have invented the concept, and believes itself to automatically qualify as the world's expert.

That's how we Brits feel about our colonies when they make ham-fisted attempts to act on the world stage using muscle instead of intellect. Feels like letting go of the back of the saddle as you weave erratically round the park claiming to be the new Lance Armstrong.

It's actually quite endearing, in a "we're all going to die through your stupidity" kind of way.
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#24 Dec 05 2007 at 2:29 PM Rating: Decent
I don't debate. I can engage in rational discussions when they arise, but they are few and far between here. For the purposes of this particular thread, the position I have taken is pretty appropriate.
#25 Dec 05 2007 at 2:31 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
That's how we Brits feel about our colonies when they make ham-fisted attempts to act on the world stage using muscle instead of intellect.

You mean in an imitation is the sincerest for of flattery sort of way?
#26 Dec 05 2007 at 2:42 PM Rating: Good
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MoebiusLord the Irrelevant wrote:
Quote:
That's how we Brits feel about our colonies when they make ham-fisted attempts to act on the world stage using muscle instead of intellect.

You mean in an imitation is the sincerest for of flattery sort of way?
That sort of thing, yep.

But imitation ain't the real thing. When we could afford to buy the bits of the planet we wanted, we walked in and took them.

This namby-pamby "Let's say bad things about brown people's countries" is not so much the ****-of-the-yard; more like the school bully stealing candy from the spotty fat kids.
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