Unlike back in the 1980's when there was Beta vs. VHS, the **** industry doesn't carry quite as much weight as it did then, thanks to the internet. So honestly, I disagree with the opinion that HD-DVD will win because of the **** industry putting itself behind that particular format. I also disagree with the (somewhat) stated opinion that Blu-Ray will win because of the fact that more people rent Blu-Ray from Blockbuster than people rent HD-DVD from there.
There isn't a clear winner right now, if only because of the simple fact that there are too many companies backing the two different methods. Unlike the Beta vs. VHS, it's not a question of real discernable quality (for VHS it was longer tape, but crappier quality, and for Beta it was shorter tape, but higher quality) unless you really are paying attention to that sort of thing. I myself can't tell the difference between the two on a HD TV most of the time.
Honestly, I think the winner will be whichever format is able to put out the cheapest player by this or the next holiday season for shoppers to pick up. The more households you can get your player into, the bigger marketshare your product will grab when it comes to new movie releases.
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