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#27 May 15 2007 at 12:04 PM Rating: Good
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You know what the best part of Varus' posts is? I don't have to read them.

Sub-default FTW!
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#28REDACTED, Posted: May 15 2007 at 12:56 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Pauly,
#29 May 15 2007 at 1:09 PM Rating: Good
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Kakar wrote:
You know what the best part of Varus' posts is? I don't have to read them.

Sub-default FTW!


Yeah, except that some jackass periodically goes through and rates him above the filter.

I don't know why he's allowed to post. He's been banned before. Honestly, what's the point of banning someone and then allowing them to make a new account and continue posting.

#30REDACTED, Posted: May 15 2007 at 1:30 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Amby,
#31 May 15 2007 at 2:54 PM Rating: Good
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Ambrya wrote:
Kakar wrote:
You know what the best part of Varus' posts is? I don't have to read them.

Sub-default FTW!


Yeah, except that some jackass periodically goes through and rates him above the filter.

I don't know why he's allowed to post. He's been banned before. Honestly, what's the point of banning someone and then allowing them to make a new account and continue posting.



Meh, he's amusing. It's nice to know how crazy is doing. He doesn't spam or post nonsense (well in the sense that it's not random words in a row) he merely posts his own silly, obnoxious and often times racist opinions. If everyone thought the same way this forum would be as dull and lifeless as Totem's jokes.
#32 May 15 2007 at 6:07 PM Rating: Default
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bodhisattva wrote:
Quote:
You can't possibly know whether or not the government of Iraq would have worked or not. Your wonderous politicians never gave it a chance to work...


Is it fair to ask for the unending support of a situation that has in fact worsened as time has gone along?


False question Bodhi. There has to be something between "unending" and "today". Given that "today" occured a mere 2.5 years after we invaded (Mar 2003 to Nov 2005), I'm leaning towards "didn't support this long enough".

I'll also take exception with your assessment that it has "in fact worstened as time has gone along". The *only* measurement that matches that assessment is casualty rates. In every single other measurement things were getting better. We had rebuilt the infrastructure in Iraq to higher then pre-war levels. The Iraqi people had successively built and participated in increasing numbers of elections. They'd progressed from having an interim occupying force in control of their governing, to a self elected Iraqi constitutional council, to writing and ratifying their own constitution, to electing their own government leaders within that structure, all within that same 2.5 year time period.

You simply cannot measure the progress of a war simply by looking at the casualty rates. In most military conflicts the violence level escalates over time until a resolution is reached. By your measurement, we should have stoppped fighting WW2 by late 1943 because it had "in fact worstened as time has gone along". Had we done that we would have lost a war that was emminently winnable (and was won). Same deal here.

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2 years of transitional gov't before the elections. Coming up on two years since they elected their own govt and made their own constitution.


No. At the time in question (When Murtha publically began calling for withdrawal), it was a mere couple of weeks after the constitution was ratified. That's not long enough to even guess at what would happen as a result. But you certainly could guess what would happen as a result of Murtha's statements. And that's exactly what *did* happen. Increased violence. Factions within Iraq figuring that they'd need to position themselves militarily for when the US soldiers left. He could not have timed his calls for withdrawal at any point *worse* from the standpoint of damaging the chances for Iraq to be successful at building a stable nation.

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The Iraqi Diaspora has increased to 1.8 million displaced people.


Yup. How about you do a little research and see *when* those 1.8 million people (mostly the wealthy and influential ones whould could have made Iraq "work")? How much do you want to bet that you'll find that the bulk of them left *after* November of 2005?



The "disaster" in Iraq was created by the anti-war left. It was created deliberately because they'd rather the US fail in Iraq as long as they could use that failure to gain political power. It's not exactly hard to see this. Just open your eyes...
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#33 May 15 2007 at 6:36 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
There has to be something between "unending" and "today". Given that "today" occured a mere 2.5 years after we invaded (Mar 2003 to Nov 2005), I'm leaning towards "didn't support this long enough".
Ok, supposing (and this is my hypothetical) that the status quo today remains the status quo despite our best efforts; inept government, insurgent violence, impotent military, etc -- how long should we stay before we say "This ain't gonna happen"? Another year? Five years? Ten years? Should we say "We can't let this nation collapse ever" and stay indefinately?

Edited, May 15th 2007 9:37pm by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#34 May 16 2007 at 3:54 AM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
There has to be something between "unending" and "today". Given that "today" occured a mere 2.5 years after we invaded (Mar 2003 to Nov 2005), I'm leaning towards "didn't support this long enough".
Ok, supposing (and this is my hypothetical) that the status quo today remains the status quo despite our best efforts; inept government, insurgent violence, impotent military, etc -- how long should we stay before we say "This ain't gonna happen"? Another year? Five years? Ten years? Should we say "We can't let this nation collapse ever" and stay indefinately?



According to this guy 10 years was the average length of an insurgency in the last century.

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There is no way to predict the life expectancy of the Iraqi insurgency. There are simply too many variables that bear on the outcome of the fight. During the 20th century, the average duration of an insurgency -- and there have been over 50 of note -- has been about 10 years. Some insurgencies are striking in their brevity. The 1920 rebellion in Iraq was suppressed in less than a year. By contrast, the insurgency in Northern Ireland has been ongoing since 1968 -- that's 38 years. Colombia has been fighting the FARC rebels for over 40 years.

If the right steps are taken in Iraq, the current insurgency could be brought to heel and the levels of political violence contained in a few years. Some of the major steps must be: to create a functioning national government, which is not achieved just by holding elections; to revitalize the Iraqi economy, which goes beyond small-scale construction projects; and to constitute an effective police force and intelligence service. Along with these, the court system must assert itself to establish rule by law. This will collectively undermine the insurgents' influence in the population.


I would say if nothing else the court has asserted itself.

Edited, May 16th 2007 6:57am by Natdatilgnome
#35 May 16 2007 at 4:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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Yeah, I've heard the ten year thing before. But then I've also heard (and even the author admits) that it's a meaningless number for predicting how long Iraq "should" stay in its current state. You simply can't compare the IRA to the Shining Path to the ETA to the French Resistance to Chechnyan separatists to the Contra groups in any meaningful way except to say "they were (are) all insurgencies". It's like comparing how long gas station attendants stay at their job vs. how long tentured college professors stay at their job and using the numbers to predict how long a paralegal will last before moving on.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#36REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 5:08 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophed,
#37REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 5:18 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) gitsy,
#38 May 16 2007 at 6:11 AM Rating: Excellent
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achileez wrote:
Failure should never be an option. If it comes to the point where we have to pull a carthage so be it. We do have military capability to neutralize this threat no?
Being reduced to razing the nation (or simply Baghdad) would be a catastrophic failure of Bush's stated goal to build a stable and free democracy out of Iraq.
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H*ll we're still in Germany and Japan how many years after ww2?
Not for the purpose of maintaining peace and propping up the government.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#39REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 7:53 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophed,
#40 May 16 2007 at 8:12 AM Rating: Decent
We did prop up the German government Varus. There were militants in Germany in the immediate post war era, but you're comparing apples to oranges. You attempted to draw a comparison between our continued presence in Germany and Japan and our continued occupation of Iraq. They are not related.
#41 May 16 2007 at 8:12 AM Rating: Excellent
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achileez wrote:
Remind me again what form of government Japan had prior to, and throughout, ww2?
An dual-chambered parliament in conjunction with an Emperor (and his oligarchs). What's your point? Furthermore, our bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were to topple the existing government, not to quell a partisan insurgency.
Quote:
As for propping up govn's are you implying we didn't do that in either Germany or Japan?
Are you implying that's why we still maintain bases in Germany & Japan?

Edited, May 16th 2007 11:14am by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#42REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 8:45 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Jophed,
#43REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 8:49 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) natd,
#44 May 16 2007 at 9:08 AM Rating: Good
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Quote:
There has to be something between "unending" and "today".


Aye, however if the current plan at hand has failed in the past and has no reasonable expectation of success in the future, and if the president refuses any other course of action (such as involving Iran and Syria for example); does he not force a more immediate action on the opposing side?

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In every single other measurement things were getting better. We had rebuilt the infrastructure in Iraq to higher then pre-war levels.


However maintenance of that infrastructure has been non existant according to recent auditors (which I mentioned in passing and you can look up yourself if you care too), trained people have been killed or left, facilities have become dilapidated or looted for parts. The iraq gov't is incapable of repair and restaffing meaning all the work in that area has been for naught.

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No. At the time in question (When Murtha publically began calling for withdrawal),


However reactionary Murthas request for withdrawal, it has nothing to do with the current debate. I can see why you would want to muddy the argument though, since you don't really have a leg to stand on.

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The "disaster" in Iraq was created by the anti-war left.


Not by the dissolution of the republican guard, the failure to maintain public order in the fall of the baathist party, the failed communication of those on the ground and those stateside, rampant corruption in the transitional govt and general inability to contain the insurgency?

I think the argument you should be making is that democratic calls for withdrawal have only exacerbated the problem that Bush (and his administration) created through their many failures.



Edited, May 16th 2007 1:09pm by bodhisattva
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#45 May 16 2007 at 9:10 AM Rating: Decent
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achileez wrote:
natd,

Quote:
You attempted to draw a comparison between our continued presence in Germany and Japan and our continued occupation of Iraq. They are not related

I wouldn't say I attempted anything. Until we're willing to go the lengths we did during ww2 we're going to continue to see resistance.

I've got to say I do agree here. And it's what I've been saying all along. The only way to solve this situation is to eliminate every involved faction and despoil the very ground so that they can never come back to haunt us again. We should stop at nothing less than the murder of every Islam worshipper and encasing the entire Middle East in glass.
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#46 May 16 2007 at 9:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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achileez wrote:
Post ww2 there were also islamic uprisings in the pacific you would be well served to research how these radicals were dealt with.
Bored them to death with apocryphal stories about General Pershing?
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#47 May 16 2007 at 9:20 AM Rating: Decent
I agree Varus. We conduct minimalist wars in the modern age that don't allow for victory. I have been saying this since the war started. I would like to have seen us go balls to the wall in the first three years and come home. In fact, we could still go balls to the wall for the next year and be home in time for the 2008 election. Wouldn't that be grand? And Hillary, Obama and Edwards would have known all along that we could do it.
#48 May 16 2007 at 9:29 AM Rating: Excellent
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Natdatilgnome wrote:
In fact, we could still go balls to the wall for the next year and be home in time for the 2008 election.
Not without a draft and/or carpet bombing civilian centers in what is supposedly a sovereign and independent state.

So, do we wait for the Iraqi government to grant us permission to level cities or do we declare war on the new Iraqi government?
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#49 May 16 2007 at 9:35 AM Rating: Good
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Debalic wrote:
The only way to solve this situation is to eliminate every involved faction everywhere but the USA and despoil the very ground so that they can never come back to haunt us again. .
You make an interesting point.
#50REDACTED, Posted: May 16 2007 at 9:49 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) som,
#51 May 16 2007 at 10:10 AM Rating: Decent
Jophiel wrote:
Natdatilgnome wrote:
In fact, we could still go balls to the wall for the next year and be home in time for the 2008 election.
Not without a draft and/or carpet bombing civilian centers in what is supposedly a sovereign and independent state.

So, do we wait for the Iraqi government to grant us permission to level cities or do we declare war on the new Iraqi government?


Again with the political left proposing a draft. Smiley: lol

But all joking aside, we have about 1,040,000 between the U.S.M.C and U.S. Army active and reserve. Add to that anyone who has been discharged and is still within 8 years of their original entry into the military service (A group into which I fall until 9/10/07) and we have a fairly large force without a draft.

I don't like that we went there in the first place, but since we're there we might as well ensure that we don't leave it more fucked up than we found it.
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