With the 36-week mark just a couple hours away, might as well get this post made.
It's that time again! Time to play "Guess the Birth Date/Time!" for fun and absolutely no prizes!
So here's the pertinent (and possibly confounding) info:
Estimated Due Date: 5/31/07
Due date is based on date of ovulation + 38 weeks, rather than on LMP + 40 weeks, as LMP would have had me due a week earlier (I ovulated on day 20 of the cycle and LMP-based estimates assume ovulation on day 14.) First trimester ultrasound confirmed the ovulation-based gestational age within 1 day.
This is a first baby, and statistically, first babies arrive, on the average, 7-10 days after their due dates.
The baby is measuring large. Last week, when he should have been pushing 6 lbs, an ultrasound estimated him to be about 7lbs 5oz. However, third trimester ultrasound estimates of fetal weight can be off by as much as 20%.
The reason the baby's size is relevent is because large babies sometimes come early.
However, the size/due date situation is complicated a bit more by a slight touch of gestational diabetes (it's under control and being managed with diet and blood sugar monitoring.) While the ultrasound last week had his long bones and head measuring around 36 weeks, his belly circumference was measuring at around 39-1/2 weeks. This is because he was getting a bit too much glucose and therefore putting on excess belly fat.
The reason THIS is relevent to the due date is because in situations of gestational diabetes, the baby's lungs are sometimes slower to mature. Babies don't generally produce the hormone that triggers labor in the mother until their lungs are mature. (Yes, it's actually the baby that initiates labor!) This could mean he needs to bake a while longer and therefore the "large babies sometimes come early" idea might not apply.
So far, there have been no signs indicating labor on the horizon, such as prodromal contractions, loss of mucus plug, bloody show, baby becoming less active, etc.
Sooo...it's anyone's guess as to when Ambrya 2.0 will arrive on the scene. Have at it!
ETA: one more variable that might have an impact. Full moon is on June 1st. Birthing centers and maternity wards have long-since noted a tendency to get a lot busier around the full moon. My midwife says most of her births in a month happen the week after the full moon.
Edited, May 3rd 2007 7:28am by Ambrya