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#1 Feb 13 2007 at 6:30 AM Rating: Excellent
Liberal Conspiracy
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Get your early bets in now -- will the deal prove fruitful?
The Tribune wrote:
North Korea agreed Tuesday after arduous talks to shut down its main nuclear reactor and eventually dismantle its atomic weapons program, just four months after the communist state shocked the world by testing a nuclear bomb.

The deal marks the first concrete plan for disarmament in more than three years of six-nation negotiations. The plan also could potentially herald a new era of cooperation in the region with the North's longtime foes -- the United States and Japan -- also agreeing to discuss normalizing relations.
[...]
Under the deal, the North would receive initial aid equal to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil for shutting down and sealing its main nuclear reactor and related facilities at Yongbyon, north of the capital, within 60 days, to be confirmed by international inspectors. For irreversibly disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs, the North will eventually receive another 950,000 tons in aid. The total is worth $250 million.
[...]
Under the agreement, North Korea and United States will embark on talks aimed at resolving disputes and restarting diplomatic relations, Wu said. The Korean peninsula has remained in a state of war for more than a half-century since the Korean War ended in a 1953 cease-fire.

The United States will also begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending U.S. trade sanctions, but no deadlines have been was set, according to the agreement.
[...]
Japan and North Korea also will seek to normalize relations, under the agreement.
I trimmed out everything but the deal itself. So how about it? Knowledge gained can't really be taken away again although we could try to prevent North Korea from gaining the nuclear materials in the first place. Will N. Korea comply? Will they expel inspectors in a year? Will we happily pay them without N. Korea upholding their end of the deal? Will we normalize trade relations and turn N. Korea into a capitalist wonderland of promise and joy?

This is your chance to say in two years "I told you this would happen!"
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#2 Feb 13 2007 at 6:34 AM Rating: Decent
In 2 years, N.K. and U.S. tensions will start WWIV.

You heard it here first.
#3 Feb 13 2007 at 6:36 AM Rating: Good
I think it will all depend on the outcome of the Iran vs. World conflict.
#4 Feb 13 2007 at 6:40 AM Rating: Good
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Quote:
Knowledge gained can't really be taken away again although we could try to prevent North Korea from gaining the nuclear materials in the first place. Will N. Korea comply?


If I was N. Korea I would comply. The deal offers them access to 250 million dollars worth of fuel.

I don't feel comfortable in making a guess about what will happen in 2 years because Kim Jong is a mad man.

#5 Feb 13 2007 at 6:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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That's chump change.

I think they'll comply, outWarddly, for now. It won't last. We've been here before.

Edit: I didn't say mOnk lOot, wtf.




Edited, Feb 13th 2007 9:46am by Samira
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#6 Feb 13 2007 at 6:56 AM Rating: Excellent
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you probably said out.wars
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Do what now?
#7 Feb 13 2007 at 7:04 AM Rating: Excellent
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OUtward, actually.

It's a different string, you know, with the "d" and all. Smiley: glare
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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

#8 Feb 13 2007 at 7:10 AM Rating: Excellent
Liberal Conspiracy
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Do people still do that stupid "game"?
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#9 Feb 13 2007 at 7:12 AM Rating: Default
Trade? Leftists denigrating their communist comrades? How un communistic. Err how un universal health care ish.

Quote:
Close-Out Sale: North Korea's Elite Shop While They Can; Loyalists of 'Dear Leader' Are Target of Sanctions; Luxury Goods From China
Gordon Fairclough. Wall Street Journal. (Eastern edition). New York, N.Y.: Dec 18, 2006. pg. A.1

DANDONG, China -- A North Korean businesswoman with heavy makeup and a bouffant hairdo studied herself in a mirror as she modeled fur-lined leather coats at a small store in this frigid northeast border city.

During a three-day excursion late last month, the woman also tried on shoes and looked at large-screen television sets before buying furniture and fresh fruit and heading home to Pyongyang, North Korea's capital city.

The United Nations has called for a crackdown on luxury-goods shipments to North Korea as a way of pressuring the country to drop its atomic-weapons programs, which came under new fire after an October nuclear test. But even as a new round of arms-control talks gets under way in Beijing today, some of the country's elite are heading to stores in China.

If anything, the uncertainty about the flow of fancy goods appears to have whetted the appetites of some privileged North Koreans -- whose impoverished country cultivates a Spartan socialist image.

In Dandong, North Koreans, many wearing lapel pins with a picture of North Korea's founding dictator, Kim Il Sung, stroll through hotels and department stores. Signs are often written in Korean, with storekeepers advertising computers, karaoke machines and the erectile- dysfunction drugs Viagra and Cialis.

A few North Koreans have bought new cars at a Toyota dealership near the Dandong customs checkpoint, according to a salesman. One man paid about $50,000 in cash for a luxury sedan.

Gold is also gaining a following. Wang Xiaoju, a saleswoman at the jewelry counter at Xin Yi Bai Department Store, says North Korean women come in nearly every day, mostly to buy gold chains and other gold jewelry.

Women from the North also are frequent visitors to a riverfront spa, favoring milk baths and massages, according to staff there. A saleswoman at the Xin Yi Bai L'Oreal counter says North Koreans are regular customers. Among the big sellers: body sculpting cream for women who want to look thinner.

In the first 10 months of this year, Chinese exports of fur coats and fake furs to North Korea soared more than sevenfold from the year- earlier period, according to Chinese Customs figures. Exports of televisions and other consumer electronics were up 77%, while perfumes and cosmetics were up 10%.

Some North Koreans are even buying real estate in Dandong. One high- rise building, where three bedroom apartments go for nearly $100,000 each, has sweeping views of a decrepit North Korean village with crumbling cinder-block houses across the border. A North Korean buyer recently purchased one of the units with cash, according to the building's sales agent.

"Life is quite comfortable" for senior party members, military officers and traders, who have prospered despite widespread shortages of food, fuel and medicine in North Korea, says Pak Yong Ho, a former high-ranking North Korean official who defected to South Korea two years ago.

North Korea's Communist Party has long had overseas agents in Macau, Switzerland and elsewhere dedicated to maintaining supplies of luxuries for top military and government personnel, according to former North Korean officials. Their jobs, in the wake of the U.N. sanctions, could get much harder.

The U.N. so far has let individual countries decide which high-end products to block. Washington has barred U.S. companies from selling everything from iPods to Harley-Davidson motorcycles. But that move was largely symbolic, as there is very little direct trade between the U.S. and North Korea.

Japan, which has for decades been a source of luxuries for the North Korean ruling class, has banned exports of 24 fancy products from caviar and gems to watches and art.

But the key to whether the sanctions will work is in the hands of China, North Korea's largest trading partner.

A steel-girder bridge here spans the Yalu River, connecting Dandong to the city of Sinuiju in North Korea. That has helped Dandong, whose name means "Red East," become a popular shopping destination for North Koreans with money. It is unclear how much that will change because of the sanctions.

So far, China hasn't disclosed what specific kinds of high-end exports -- TVs or luxury automobiles, for instance -- it will block. A Chinese foreign-ministry spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, has said the list "should not be allowed to impact normal trade transactions" between the socialist neighbors.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, whose own taste for expensive French cognac and other imported luxuries is well known, uses money and goods liberally in an effort to buy the loyalty of the elite, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. Some of these officials say that depriving the ruling class of its creature comforts could alienate them from Mr. Kim, long known as "Dear Leader."

But many North Korea watchers and North Korean defectors doubt that the elite would revolt against Mr. Kim's government, because their fates are so closely tied to his now. "Under this regime, the privileged have had a very good life," says Kim Dok Hong, the second- highest North Korean official to defect. "If the regime collapses, the people they've mistreated will be looking for revenge."

At the peak of the famine that killed more than a million North Koreans in the mid-1990s, Mr. Pak, the former government official, says his parents weren't short of food. Their home had three refrigerators regularly replenished with imported provisions by the Communist Party. Mr. Pak uses a pseudonym to protect family members still in the North from government retribution.

"The elites have had more freedom to do their own business" since economic overhauls in 2002, says Yang Chang Seok, a senior official at South Korea's Unification Ministry, which oversees relations with the North. "People have earned a lot of money from trading."

These days in Pyongyang, members of the ruling class are ferried around in imported cars and live in well-appointed -- and well-guarded -- apartment complexes. Their children race around city parks on in- line skates and play American computer games.

Says Mr. Pak: "If you can afford to pay, there's nothing you can't get."
#10 Feb 13 2007 at 7:31 AM Rating: Decent
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I suspect that in a few years the IAEA will go in to make sure that the nuclear plant actually was dismantled, they will be delayed and deceived, they won't actually find anything, Hans Blix gets eaten in a shark tank, and we finally decide to invade. When we do roll in we won't find anything at all, face little resistance, occupy Pyongyang and get sniped at by Chinese.
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#11 Feb 13 2007 at 7:34 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
I trimmed out everything but the deal itself. So how about it?
Yes, chump change from chumps. I feel like a chump.

Quote:
Knowledge gained can't really be taken away again although we could try to prevent North Korea from gaining the nuclear materials in the first place.
Yes, we're really good at that. Smiley: rolleyes
Quote:
Will N. Korea comply?
For now they will appear to.
Quote:
Will they expel inspectors in a year?
No they will assimilate them.
Quote:
Will we happily pay them without N. Korea upholding their end of the deal?
Maybe not happily, but we'll pay them.
Quote:
Will we normalize trade relations and turn N. Korea into a capitalist wonderland of promise and joy?
No. Maybe. No. I dunno. At the price of what? The promise and joy we've brought to Malaysia?

Can you imagine N.Korean GM's on the other end of your EQ petition??!!?

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#12 Feb 13 2007 at 7:55 AM Rating: Excellent
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From what I understand, the recent agreement to disarm and disable the nuclear plant are just enactments of an agreement reached in 2003. If it took them nearly four years to agree, I imagine it'll take even longer for them to comply.

I forsee more stalling of UN inspectors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another nuclear test in the not-so-immediate future.
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Jophiel wrote:
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#13 Feb 13 2007 at 8:21 AM Rating: Decent
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Monx...what the **** does health care have to do with Korea?





On topic: I don't think this will last, but I don't think it'll be war or anything. KJI is just a sword rattling wierdo, looking to be "me too" in a sea of dumbasses.
#14 Feb 14 2007 at 2:18 AM Rating: Decent
Ok, the first question we should ask ourselves is: What was the alternative? And the alternative was to continue ignoring them while they develop more and better nuclear bombs, and threaten their neighbours.

I think this deal is good. We are paying a very cheap price, and in return NK is back in the international community framework, with all that it entails. This is the only way we will have regime change in NK, by integrating them. The more we isolate those regime, the stronger they become at home, since they blame the West for all their ills.

I don't know how long NK will keep its side of the bargain. Probably not very long, but it's at least a step forward. The real key actor in all of this mess is China. They are the only ones to have any kind of diplomatic clout over NK. And since they are on board too in this deal, it's definately a good step forward. NK will think twice about ******** China over.

I saw John Bolton on TV last night whining about this deal, saying we were "rewarding" NK. What a load of crap. I can't belive this guy was the US envoy to the UN.

Now, if someone could please tell him that a Siamese cat died on his head, we would all be better off.
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#15 Feb 14 2007 at 2:38 AM Rating: Decent
"We will disarm."


God, haven't I heard this rhetoric elsewhere? Smiley: confused
#16 Feb 14 2007 at 2:43 AM Rating: Decent
King Rimesume wrote:
"We will disarm."
God, haven't I heard this rhetoric elsewhere? Smiley: confused



Yes, from the nuclear powers when we signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

That was funy. I stil can't belive all those third world countries belived us. Loooooosers!
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