Demea wrote:
Also, to muck up the waters even more, which will be a bigger influence; the votes that they get just because they are black/female, or the votes that they don't get just because they are black/female?
I think that Obama might fare okay on the race issue because he's "Colin Powell" black rather than "Jessie Jackson" black. He's not out there discussing how the white man owes the people in the ghetto or saying that he's going to fight for his fourty acres & a mule. He doesn't look like Idi Amin or anything. He's articulate, well-educated, charismatic, decent looking and has a good "pulled up by his bootstraps" story. Issues, experience, etc aside, I think he has a good chance with those who aren't just 100% opposed to any blacks in the Whitehouse.
Hillary, I think, is the wrong barometer for women. Her politics are widely viewed as polarizing, she's been getting cast as a shrill harpy-woman since 1992 and, even among women, a lot of women felt "betrayed" by Hillary's decision to stay with Bill. I think a lot more blacks would vote for Obama based purely on race than women would vote for Hillary based on gender.