Jophiel wrote:
gbaji wrote:
I was simply addressing the absolute silliness of insisting on bilateral talks to the exclusion of multilateral ones.
Except no one was arguing for that.
I suppose it's easier to make up a defense when you're also making up the attacks.
Um. I'm responding to calls that Bush should not involve the 6 parties, but should talk directly to NK
instead. I know that *you* are arguing that we could do both, but most Dems in Washington
aren't Quote:
A potential 2008 Democratic presidential contender, Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin issued a statement denouncing Bush for using the vehicle of six-nation talks involving China and Japan to try to persuade North Korea to forego its nuclear weapons ambitions.
Sunday’s nuclear test, Feingold said, showed “the weakness of the Six Party approach as well as the danger of this Administration's hands-off approach to North Korea.â€
That's hardly the only example. It's pretty ubiquitous. Democrats are not saying "Do what you're doing but *also* do some direct talking". The strategy seems to be to always say that what Bush is doing is wrong, and that includes condemning the 6 party talks. You can argue about what you think the position should be. I'm talking about what the actual politicians on each side of the aisle are saying and doing.
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How about we wait 12 years and see how the success is?
Because the results of the three years are already expelled inspectors, open refinement of nuclear material and the testing a nuclear weapon?
Um. But those things happened as a result of the 1994 agreement falling apart Joph. Not because of anything that Bush did. The only thing Bush had to do with any of that was that he happened to be president when we
discovered that NK had not been abiding by the terms of the agreement.
You seem to be taking the position that as long as we don't know the other guy is cheating us, everything is groovy, but that we should place the blame for being cheated on the administration who figures out that it's happening. Doesn't that place you in the position of arguing that we should not check up to make sure that people are actually abiding by the terms of agreements so that we can always pretend that they are and that they're successful?
Again. The only difference is that Bush actually realized that NK was lying to us and violating the agreement. Clinton apparently blissfully went along with it and called it a success. I guess I just can't ask this question enough: Is it success if you don't know you've failed? And failure when and only when you figure it out? Because that seems like a silly way of doing things.
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Not that I imagine they will, but if North Korea sets off a nuclear weapon in a year, do we still need to wait another eight years before saying Bush's plan didn't work?
Depends what the plan is. However, we can state *today* with absolute certainty that Clinton's plan to get NK to not develop nuclear weapons failed. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion, now would we? Or are you actually trying to argue that NK acquired all of the nuclear material, the facilities for enrichment, the materials for a bomb, and put it all together just since 2002? That's not even remotely possible. Anyone with an ounce of sense can see that they continued working on their bomb(s) during the entire time they pretended to go along with the 1994 agreement, only revealing that they'd violated the agreement once they were near enough to completion that nothing except a military invasion could have stopped them. Isn't that obvious? I think so...
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What was the goal? Was it to prevent N. Korea from expanding their nuclear weapons program? Because I think we can safely call that a failure.
But it was a failure of the 1994 agreement. Bush is confronted with a totally different problem today, largely *because* of that failure. By 2002, when Bush discovered the NK had been violating the agreement, they'd already enriched enough materials (by several intelligence estimates) to make several bombs. At that point, you can't pretend that this hasn't happened and just go back to debating over furture enrichment. You have to deal with the material that's already been developed. That requires getting more people involved.
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Even if they magically said "no more" today, they now have more material refined, more nuclear weapons built and a test completed that they didn't have three years ago.
But they'd have had that even if they'd said "no more" 3 years ago Joph. The only difference is that you could have kept your head in the sand and pretended that they didn't. Again. Not knowing doesn't change the reality of the situation. Bush acted based on what NK was actually doing, not what it said it was (or would). Clinton made the mistake of believing them 14 years ago. That's what lead us into this mess in the first place.
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Once again, you're pretending that there's some sort of cover charge for entering Club Bilateral. Once again, you're pretending that the two are mutually exclusive and that, if two guys enter a room, they have to come out with an agreement signed and sealed. There's absolutely no chance of anyone saying "We'll get back to you on that" and discussing the two-party terms multilaterally to get input.
But you gain nothing with bilateral talks if you can't come to an agreement. Any talks will require negotiations. Negotiations that we can't be sure will be upheld if there aren't more people involved. If we promise them something in a bilateral talk, and then try to go to the multilateral talks and it turns out that this is incompatible with what the other 4 nations want, then we're in quite a pickle, aren't we?
I agree that there's nothing wrong with someone from the Bush administration talking directly with someone from NK's government. However, I really don't think high level negotiations are going to be a good direction to go. Any agreement we make without including the other 4 cannot be assured of success, and is likely to actually make the multilateral talks less likely to succeed as well. It's really not about ego or being in a special club. It's about not making deals with NK that no one else in the region will honor.
We're supposed to learn from past mistakes. Not repeat them.