shadowrealm wrote:
for 6 years they did respect the border with Israel, but not because they chose to, but because at the time, Syeria was occupying Lebonon to end decades of constant civil war, and constant war with Israel.
You make it sound like Syria did Lebanon a favour by invading them to stop the bloodshed. They were protecting their own interests, and had been involved in LEbanon militarily since the mid-70s.
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when the U.S spearheaded the political pressure to condem Syeria for the occupation of Lebonon, in hopes of sponsering a U.S. friendly democratic government (sound familiar? iraq anyone?), and thus bufering Israel on two of its fronts with democracies friendly to the U.S., and thus Israel, Syeria caved in.
Syria had no business to be in Lebanon anymore. The Hariri murder was a good exemlpe of the way Syria dealt with political oppopnents. It was a convenient excuse for the US to put pressure on them to leave. But it can hardly be compared with the Iraq situation.
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when Syeria left, they effectivly unleashed the dogs of war in Lebonon. the people of Lebonon WANT war with Israel. the border was only respected because Syeria had a leash on their dogs.
That's completely untrue. The "people of Lebanon", that famously homogeonous group, do not want war with Israel. They have lived through 15 years of civil war, through the occupation from Syria, and have finally become free. The last thing they wanted was another war. I have friends in Beirut, and none of the reasonable-minded Lebanese people want war.
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here is some intellegance the whitehouse just cant seem to get a grip on. they HATE Israel, and they HATE us. give them freedom and they will try to KILL us and Israel to boot.
Who is "they"? It's not the people of Lebanon, who are mostly American-friendly, and war-weary. It might Hizbollah, but Hizbollah is NOT the Lebanese people.
Until the recent kidnapping, there was a big debate going on in Lebanon about the usefulness of Hizbollah now that Israel had withdrawn from its southern territory. Their support was diminishing, and there was growing pressure to incorporate them into the LEbanese army.
The fact they kidnapped those 2 soldiers, knowing that Israel's reaction would be huge, is a good pointer in understanding why they did it, and why now.
Neither the US nor Israel want a cease-fire. They both know a cease-fire will not achieve anything. Hizbollah will still be on Israel's doorstep, except they will have a much bigger public support than before. Nothing to stop them bombing and kidnapping again.
Israel ideally would want to re-occupy a buffer zone in Southern Lebanon, since it is painfully they obvious they cant militarily destroy Hizbollah. And the most likely way to achieve this will be through an international force. It didn't work in the 80s, but it might work today.
Syria might be laughing, but it's relief more than anything. Until now, they were under sever pressure from the international community and from its own population. These events are such a god-sent for them it is hard to believe they have nothing to do with it. The same goes for Iran. The biggest losers in this conflict are, as usual, the people of Lebanon.