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#1 Jul 25 2006 at 8:47 AM Rating: Decent
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Sectarian break-up of Iraq is now inevitable, admit officials

The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, meets Tony Blair in London today as violence in Iraq reaches a new crescendo and senior Iraqi officials say the break up of the country is inevitable.
...
"Iraq as a political project is finished," a senior government official was quoted as saying, adding: "The parties have moved to plan B." He said that the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties were now looking at ways to divide Iraq between them and to decide the future of Baghdad, where there is a mixed population. "There is serious talk of Baghdad being divided into [Shia] east and [Sunni] west," he said.
...
"The government is all in the Green Zone like the previous one and they have left the streets to the terrorists," said Mahmoud Othman, a veteran Iraqi politician. He said the situation would be made worse by the war in Lebanon because it would intensify the struggle between Iran and the US being staged in Iraq. The Iraqi crisis would now receive much reduced international attention.


First, please note that I have no idea how reputable the "Independant" is in England. I can barely distinguish between the Times and the Post these days, so keeping track of which limey papers are rags is a bit too much.


Now, who in their right mind would think that this plan of action would work? I guess since it worked so well for Germany, and is working great for Korea and was a full success in the formation of Isreal, that it would have the same great results in Iraq.


The article then goes on to talk about how since everyone is paying attention to the Lebanon situation, the American politicians will benefit. Since the publics attention is diverted to Lebanon, the powers that be will be able to clean their hands of whatever mess they have made and enact a quick fix, which is the equivalent of putting a band-aid over a severed limb.

/equip Tin foil hat

Could one reason Bush refuses to push for a cease-fire in Lebanon be that he wants that conflict to drag out in order to divert attention for Iraq and give his people enough time to clean up the mess?
#2 Jul 25 2006 at 8:57 AM Rating: Good
Psi wrote:
Now, who in their right mind would think that this plan of action would work? I guess since it worked so well for Germany, and is working great for Korea and was a full success in the formation of Isreal, that it would have the same great results in Iraq.


It's possible, I think it's a more realistic resolution as a whole.

Psi wrote:
Could one reason Bush refuses to push for a cease-fire in Lebanon be that he wants that conflict to drag out in order to divert attention for Iraq and give his people enough time to clean up the mess?


No other explaination! God, 2008 couldn't come fast enough...
#3 Jul 25 2006 at 9:22 AM Rating: Decent
I hate to burst the happy bubble but bush dosen't leave office till January 20th, 2009, trust me you and I are both counting the days, hours, mins and seconds...
#4 Jul 25 2006 at 9:45 AM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
Now, who in their right mind would think that this plan of action would work? I guess since it worked so well for Germany, and is working great for Korea and was a full success in the formation of Isreal, that it would have the same great results in Iraq.


Hey, it worked in the Balkans! Oh... wait.
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#5 Jul 25 2006 at 9:45 AM Rating: Decent
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KILL THEM ALL

and bring back the large tag

Problem solved.
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#6 Jul 25 2006 at 10:05 AM Rating: Decent
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Isn't it great that we got rid of such a nasty, volatile, destabilizing influence in that region?

#7 Jul 25 2006 at 10:10 AM Rating: Excellent
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PsiChi the Flatulent wrote:
Now, who in their right mind would think that this plan of action would work? I guess since it worked so well for Germany, and is working great for Korea and was a full success in the formation of Isreal, that it would have the same great results in Iraq.
I'm not sure those are great comparisons; Germany and Korea had partitioning thrust upon them rather than deciding on their own terms to separate. A closer example would the breakdown of the Balkan republics (namely Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia) once the Soviet Union fell and they no longer had outside powers forcing them to remain a nation despite internal ethnic differences. I'm hardly an expert on Middle Eastern history but weren't most of the modern borders created by British and French imperialism without regard for tribal affiliations?

Now, before you say it, I know the Balkans haven't been a great vacation destination for the past fifteen years or so (although it seems to have been quieter lately). But most of the conflict has been the result of ethnic groups agitating for independance. Likewise, I'm not implying that every national subgroup needs their own sovereign real estate. But, if the Iraqi factions want to arrive at a diplomatic decision to separate, then maybe it's not such a horrible thing for them.

For the US, of course, it'd be a disaster. And I'm talking in theory here since I've no clue how valid the article is.
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Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#8 Jul 25 2006 at 10:13 AM Rating: Decent
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I am not sure how accurate this Independent is. Check out this article on cnn.com that has the Iraqi PM meeting with Bush right now at the White House.

~Rock
#9 Jul 25 2006 at 10:13 AM Rating: Excellent
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Samira wrote:
Hey, it worked in the Balkans! Oh... wait.
Well, it worked for Czechoslovakia. No violent overthrow or bloody revolution -- just two nations diplomatically deciding "Hey, it's been nice, but..."
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#10 Jul 25 2006 at 10:38 AM Rating: Good
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Well, once you push a nation towards sovreignty, it kind of implies they get a say in how things will be done. Beneficial to the United States or no, this is what we wanted, pushed and fought for: a sovreign, democratic Iraq that makes its own decisions about what is best for it.
#11 Jul 25 2006 at 10:40 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
I'm not sure those are great comparisons; Germany and Korea had partitioning thrust upon them rather than deciding on their own terms to separate. A closer example would the breakdown of the Balkan republics (namely Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia) once the Soviet Union fell and they no longer had outside powers forcing them to remain a nation despite internal ethnic differences. I'm hardly an expert on Middle Eastern history but weren't most of the modern borders created by British and French imperialism without regard for tribal affiliations?


I agree that the examples I used were mainly for effect, but one could argue that the current PM of Iraq is just a figurehead that is controled by the USA, and that the current government was pretty much forced on the people, so the Korea and Germany examples would be apt.

But one could also point out that I am still wearing my tinfoil hat and have added a tinfoil codpiece to it to protect my junk from the radiation that the television puts out...



Rocksmith wrote:
I am not sure how accurate this Independent is. Check out this article on cnn.com that has the Iraqi PM meeting with Bush right now at the White House.

~Rock


Not saying that the independant is or isn't accuracte, but the article did mention the PM meeting with Blair and Bush. It also did make mention of the movement of troops.

#12 Jul 25 2006 at 10:42 AM Rating: Decent
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The Glorious Atomicflea wrote:
Well, once you push a nation towards sovreignty, it kind of implies they get a say in how things will be done. Beneficial to the United States or no, this is what we wanted, pushed and fought for: a sovreign, democratic Iraq that makes its own decisions about what is best for it.

You mean we're not all about sycophant puppet governments with strings leading all the way across the world to Washington?

So much for US imperialism. Smiley: glare
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#13 Jul 25 2006 at 10:48 AM Rating: Excellent
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Debalic wrote:
So much for US imperialism. Smiley: glare
Well, Bush is new at it.

I say we liberate Clipperton Island as practice.
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.
#14 Jul 25 2006 at 10:55 AM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Debalic wrote:
So much for US imperialism. Smiley: glare
Well, Bush is new at it.

I say we liberate Clipperton Island as practice.

Arrr! Thar be treasure to be found in that thar little land-doughnut!

Next up: Hans Island.
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publiusvarus wrote:
we all know liberals are well adjusted american citizens who only want what's best for society. While conservatives are evil money grubbing scum who only want to sh*t on the little man and rob the world of its resources.
#15 Jul 25 2006 at 4:26 PM Rating: Good
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Here's waht will happen with partition:

Sunnis in the Sunni partition will start a "group" to "defend" Sunnis in the other partitions
Shi'ites in the Shi'te partition will create a "group" to "defend" Shi'ites in the other partitions
Kurds... well.. Kurds will prolly get screwed either way....

You may think that there is fighting now, but give these people more borders and reasons to distrust each other and more opportunity to opress their rivals and you're looking at a civil bloodbath.

then again, maybe that's waht has to happen.....




i wonder waht happens to all that blood wehn it sinks into the sand.....
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#16 Jul 25 2006 at 4:59 PM Rating: Decent
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Kelvyquayo wrote:

You may think that there is fighting now, but give these people more borders and reasons to distrust each other and more opportunity to opress their rivals and you're looking at a civil bloodbath.

then again, maybe that's waht has to happen.....


Yeah, like is said before, it is just a temporary solution to a long term problem.

Dividing up the land may make the fighting stop for a little while but it is not something that is going to last. Eventually a huge civil war will break out and then either:
a) USA and the "axis of good" are brought right back into it to help which ever side suits our views.
b) We stay out of it and hope the "right" people win.
c) We stay out of it and that area goes back to how it was before we got involved.

Just seems to me like everyone is just going around their *** to get to their elbow.
#17 Jul 25 2006 at 5:02 PM Rating: Good
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It's like the scene from that movie where the two guys are beating the **** out of each other until they both collapase and start laughing at each other and become good friends.
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#18 Jul 25 2006 at 5:06 PM Rating: Decent
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Kelvyquayo wrote:
It's like the scene from that movie where the two guys are beating the **** out of each other until they both collapase and start laughing at each other and become good friends.


Bosom Buddies?
#19 Jul 25 2006 at 5:18 PM Rating: Good
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no, but it's funny; I was going to type "bosom buddies" instead of "good friends" but I didn't want to make it sound gay.
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#20 Jul 25 2006 at 5:47 PM Rating: Good
Question. Where is Gbaji with his Wall O' Text?
#21 Jul 25 2006 at 8:31 PM Rating: Decent
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Buffyisagoddess wrote:
Question. Where is Gbaji with his Wall O' Text?
\

Careful...asking that is rather like looking in the mirror and saying "Bloody Mary" five times.

#22 Jul 25 2006 at 8:36 PM Rating: Decent
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Ambrya wrote:
Buffyisagoddess wrote:
Question. Where is Gbaji with his Wall O' Text?
\

Careful...asking that is rather like looking in the mirror and saying "Bloody Mary" five times.


Bah! I believe both of them are just figments of your imagination.
#23 Jul 25 2006 at 8:54 PM Rating: Decent
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PsiChi the Flatulent wrote:
Ambrya wrote:
Buffyisagoddess wrote:
Question. Where is Gbaji with his Wall O' Text?
\

Careful...asking that is rather like looking in the mirror and saying "Bloody Mary" five times.


Bah! I believe both of them are just figments of your imagination.


Oh sure...it's fine to laugh until you end up with a meat-hook through your gullet. Or a migraine from squinting at the monitor too long.

#24 Jul 25 2006 at 8:55 PM Rating: Decent
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Oh, what the hell...

/pharm 900
#25 Jul 25 2006 at 9:15 PM Rating: Good
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Boo!!!


Hah. Got ya! ;)

The Independant is pretty much a rummor-rag. "A senior government official" could be anybody. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be that hard to find "one" person willing to make an outrageous prediction about Iraq off the record.

Hah. I particularly love how they quoted "A European Diplomat" when writing the whole "Bush is using this as a distraction" bit. Wow. With sources like that, how on earth can you think the article might be bogus?!
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#26 Jul 25 2006 at 10:29 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
The Independant is pretty much a rumour-rag.


Not sure that I agree with that. The Independant is generally considered a bit more serious than that. Patrick Cockburn is an experienced journalist with years of experience in Iraq and the wider ME. Prolly not as knowledgable as Gbaji. But then again who is??

From another rumour rag..

Quote:
Q Steve, with the number of attacks rising, and with the death toll rising, and in particular with the audacious nature of a lot of these attacks in Baghdad of groups of Sunnis pulling Shiites out, killing them in the street, and vice versa, there's a wide array of political leaders in Iraq that say a low-grade civil war, marked by ethnic cleansing in mixed neighborhoods, in particular, has already begun. The Prime Minister today, when he ended the press conference, said, with God's help there won't be a civil war, which was not a particularly inspiring statement when you listen to the words of it. Does the administration think a civil war has begun? If not, how much -- what else has to happen before you would look at it and say, there is a civil war now raging inside of Iraq?

MR. HADLEY: The President has been clear on that; we do not think a civil war has begun. But I think the point is, is there a problem? Yes. Is the problem involving sectarian violence? Yes. Does it need to have to be addressed if Iraq's democracy is going to flourish and the situation get stable? Absolutely. Is there a strategy to do that? Yes. Prime Minister Maliki has outlined that today. Are we supporting that strategy? Yes. That's where our focus is. We'll let others deal with the semantics (gbaji, your on!). Clearly, there's a problem; clearly, it needs to be solved; and clearly, there's a strategy to do that.


Whitehouse Press Conference yesterday.

I hope the strategy for dealing with this 'problem' is a little more succesful than all the other strategies that have led to so many 'turned corners' in Iraq.
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