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#27 Apr 30 2006 at 2:44 PM Rating: Good
TheDraaken wrote:
Quote:
1. Ethanol takes more energy to produce than it actually produces.


True but because of advancing technology the price to produce ethanol would decreace over time. While the cost of gas is just going up over time.

The methods of ethanol conversion assumed for this forecast varied across technological scenarios and were chosen according to their potential for cost reduction. Cumulative cost savings as a result of process improvements were based on NREL projections for each technology,47 calculated from a base conversion cost of $0.91 per gallon. Currently, there are several projects underway to produce ethanol from cellulose using either concentrated or dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis technology. The low technology case assumed that the technology would continue to be used throughout the forecast period, and that process improvements would provide cost savings of 16 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. The countercurrent hydrolysis approach was chosen for the reference case technology. The countercurrent process improves on the dilute acid process, providing potential production cost savings of 30 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. The most advanced conversion process, with the greatest potential for cost reduction, is the enzymatic hydrolysis process. This process was assumed for the high technology case, with production cost savings of 60 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. Figure 8 compares ethanol price projections in the three technology cases with motor gasoline prices in the reference, low, and high world oil price cases.

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html




http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/fig_8.html



If it's comng from cellulose, it's really methanol, but who really cares if it bruns in the car, eh?

The major problem I see with ethanol is the production capacity. We'd have to grow a LOT of crops just for our fuel needs. A LOT. While that may appeal when gas hits $20/gal, the lure just isn't there right now.

Same thing with biodiesel. It's a great product, but it's not great enough for the average guy to drop his existing crops and start growing nothing but soybeans and peanuts. Let me tell you: about a quart of boiled peanuts is all a fella needs to lubricate the works for a while. After you get your quart in, you don't want much to do with the other 1000 acres or so out there.
#28 Apr 30 2006 at 2:53 PM Rating: Excellent
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Regarding biodiesel, my little research so far has turned up discussion of using algae to produce the product at a tremendous rate compared to other plant sources (approx. 10k gal/acre or more) and can be farmed in shallow vats on land. The best part of the deal is that, for quickest growth, you need a lot of sun energy and so the best places to farm the algae is in the desert where it wouldn't compete with traditional farming. I've even read ideas of using captured CO2 from coal/gas energy production to help boost the growth rate of the algae.

Of course, this is all still at the theoretical level but it would be a great thing is it proved feasible. At its base, it sounds about the same as how we produce "sewage"-based fertilizers now.
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#29 Apr 30 2006 at 3:35 PM Rating: Good
Jophiel wrote:
Regarding biodiesel, my little research so far has turned up discussion of using algae to produce the product at a tremendous rate compared to other plant sources (approx. 10k gal/acre or more) and can be farmed in shallow vats on land. The best part of the deal is that, for quickest growth, you need a lot of sun energy and so the best places to farm the algae is in the desert where it wouldn't compete with traditional farming. I've even read ideas of using captured CO2 from coal/gas energy production to help boost the growth rate of the algae.

Of course, this is all still at the theoretical level but it would be a great thing is it proved feasible. At its base, it sounds about the same as how we produce "sewage"-based fertilizers now.


I can see where that idea has some merit, but desert farming probably isn't all it's cracked up to be. Temperature swings and all that. The best place to farm algae has been lost to man. It was the wading pool I had as a kid. I swear, 2 days after being scrubbed, bleached and refilled it was already turning green.
#30 Apr 30 2006 at 5:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm not about to debate the viability of desert farming too much because, quite honestly, 85% of it would be me making sh[Aqua][/Aqua]it up and the other 15% would be me Googling. But my guess is that you could retain much of the heat with proper insulation and some form of solar cover. No matter what, you'll need a cover over the 'pools' anyway because a shallow basin of water won't last long in the desert otherwise.
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#31 Apr 30 2006 at 5:43 PM Rating: Decent
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Well, we could always build giant wading-pool greenhouses over the Dakotas; they're not being used for much else.
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#32 May 01 2006 at 8:22 AM Rating: Default
you guys are on the wrong track. we need to get away from BURNING to produce energy all together.

BURNING is the problem, weather it is oil, alcohol, methane, or soy oil / desiel combo. 1. they are all mixed with OIL, a finite product that will only increase in price no matter what it is mixed with, and 2 burning ANYTHING releases toxins into the air we breathe.

the future is electric, and a change of attitude towards driving and cars. hydrogen too, but using it for anything other than increasing the charge of a battery means storing it, which means bombs on wheels. unless thay can find a safe way to store it under pressure, or a practicle way to not create it untill right before it is injected into a combustion chamber, it is a bad idea.

japan is using a hydrogen / electric combonation and leasing it to the public. right now.

even now, the best we can do is play catch up to the rest of the world. our energy policy working...HARD....for you.
#33 May 01 2006 at 8:57 AM Rating: Excellent
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shadowrelm wrote:
you guys are on the wrong track. we need to get away from BURNING to produce energy all together.[...]the future is electric
The point was that the bulk of our electricity production comes from burning. 'Green' sources such as solar or hydropower aren't able to meet the national demand and nuclear has its own host of problems. Japan largely uses nuclear if I'm remembering correctly but that's driven largely by Japan's lack of fossil resources of any type.
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#34 May 01 2006 at 9:02 AM Rating: Good
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Jophiel wrote:
Japan largely uses nuclear if I'm remembering correctly but that's driven largely by Japan's lack of fossil resources of any type.

Same with France, although the problem with this is that no one knows how to properly dispose of waste that won't quit being highly radioactive for thousands of years.
#35 May 01 2006 at 5:07 PM Rating: Good
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Hah. I love how Shadow starts out by arguing against the idea that unless you generate electric power via nuclear, hydro, geo, or solar power plants, that you're just consuming fossil fuels in a different location. But then he later counters more arguments by saying "Yeah. But where I live, we have nuclear power, so that's not a problem...". Um...


Hybrid technology is a good idea since it reduces our total oil usage (or will if/when implemented fully). But it's expensive. And don't think that the batteries used in those systems are "clean and natural" either. It's worthwhile technology to pursue but to argue that it's an ideal alternative "today" would be stretching the truth quite a bit.

Ethanol is also a viable direction to go. But it's *also* expensive. In California, we're replacing the current chemical additive (which turned out to be worse for the environment then the air pollution it was designed to reduce) with an ethanol replacement. The problem is that the ethonol costs 4 times as much as what it's replacing. BTW, this is one of the main reasons why California has the highest gas prices in the country. It's not *all* about rising crude prices.

Going all electric isn't quite the savings it could be. As mentioned earlier, you still have to generate the electricity you put in the vehicles, and if you burn fossil fuels to do that, you aren't really gaining a whole lot. While Joph is correct that this will "reduce our reliance on foreign oil", I'm still not convinced how big a deal that is. Ultimately, cost is cost. And increased coal mining and use (the most likely source to generate the extra power needed for electric vehicles) is probably not the "ideal solution" most environmentalists have in mind. Buying oil from a foreign nation may not seem like the wisest geo-political choice, but it does put the wells in other countries (arguably a more contentious environmental issue then the use of gas to fuel cars in the first place). Clearly, the rejection of drilling in Alaska, new drilling in the continental US, and bans on drilling offshore are pretty good indicators that preventing drilling in the US is more important to the environmentalists then whether we end up reliant on foreign oil as a result. I'm just not sure how many would rather we reduce that reliance on foreign oil if it meant increased coal mining and burning domestically...


Which is why any mass movement to electric powered vehicles really does need to come with a push to build more power stations and (preferably) ones that don't burn fossil fuels to get their power. It's a lot more complex then just saying "Build alternative fueled vehicles...".
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#36 May 01 2006 at 5:47 PM Rating: Excellent
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bodhisattva wrote:
1. Ethanol takes more energy to produce than it actually produces.
Toodling around on teh intrawebz today, I came across this quote:

"The Institute for Local Self Reliance estimates that corn to ethanol production today creates 38 percent more energy than it uses."

That was off the website for some fuel distributor I was looking up. I've no idea what the energy output is for petroleum into gasoline or diesel and if it's greater or less, but ethanol does seem to be a positive gain.
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Belkira wrote:
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#37 May 01 2006 at 5:50 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Ethanol is also a viable direction to go. But it's *also* expensive. In California, we're replacing the current chemical additive (which turned out to be worse for the environment then the air pollution it was designed to reduce) with an ethanol replacement. The problem is that the ethonol costs 4 times as much as what it's replacing. BTW, this is one of the main reasons why California has the highest gas prices in the country. It's not *all* about rising crude prices.


Four times the current price of the replacement? I'm curious to know just what additive is being replaced. Could it be you're being charged more for the equipment/service changes than the actual price of the ethanol blend?

It's still strange to think that parts of the country haven't ever had ethanol blended gasoline. It's been in my region for over ten years now. Our gas stations have also just started adding E-85 pumps for flex-fuel cars. The standard ethanol blend runs about 6 cents cheaper than non-blended gas while E-85 is about 30 cents cheaper.
#38 May 01 2006 at 5:58 PM Rating: Excellent
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Illinois has had a mandated 10% ethanol blend in most of its gasoline for years and years. 95% of the gasoline sold in the Chicago area is a 10% blend. (Cite!)

I don't think the problem is, in of itself, that ethanol is so expensive. It's just that California did a big switch-over and depleted the ethanol supplies, thus driving up the prices since the refineries had to use it. Given time for production to catch it, you'd think it'd stabilize.
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#39 May 01 2006 at 6:00 PM Rating: Good
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I firmly believe in large gas-guzzling SUVs. Just keep pumping those oil prices higher you american ********

hurray for alberta!
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#40 May 01 2006 at 6:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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niobia the retarded uber-lawyer wrote:

The burden of evidence is on the accused to prove that they didn't violate the law


Still makes me laugh like a happy baby.
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#41 May 01 2006 at 6:40 PM Rating: Good
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HerrisaWHM wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Ethanol is also a viable direction to go. But it's *also* expensive. In California, we're replacing the current chemical additive (which turned out to be worse for the environment then the air pollution it was designed to reduce) with an ethanol replacement. The problem is that the ethonol costs 4 times as much as what it's replacing. BTW, this is one of the main reasons why California has the highest gas prices in the country. It's not *all* about rising crude prices.


Four times the current price of the replacement? I'm curious to know just what additive is being replaced. Could it be you're being charged more for the equipment/service changes than the actual price of the ethanol blend?


That would be MTBE

It was originally chosen back in the 70s as an additive because it was cheaper then ethanol and met clean air requirements of the day. It's a great example of how "one sided requlation" (that made to strictly set a goal, but without carefully considering the alternatives available to meet that goal) can result in causing more problems then they solve. You'd think we'd learn from this kind of mistake...
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#42 May 01 2006 at 7:51 PM Rating: Decent
Quote:
BURNING is the problem, weather it is oil, alcohol, methane, or soy oil / desiel combo. 1. they are all mixed with OIL, a finite product that will only increase in price no matter what it is mixed with, and 2 burning ANYTHING releases toxins into the air we breathe.

the future is electric,


The desiel engine was originally designed to burn vegetable oil. "Bio desiel" engines don't mix fossil oil into the fuel (though I am not sure if fossil oil is still used for lubrication).

I was listening to NPR a couple weeks ago and there is a push now to move towards bio desiel as a means of reducing our dependence on foriegn oil. A company in New York already has two plants to genterate fuel from vegetable oil. They had the great idea of picking up the cooking oil used by restaurants for conversion into bio desiel fuel. Restaurants are lining up to give them the vegetable oil, because up til now they have had to pay a company to dispose of it.

The problem with the electric vehicles is 1) as mentioned the electricity to charge it is still for the most part coming from fossil fuel plants and 2) the batteries present a problem when they have to be replaced after a few years.

There was even a portion of the program talking about the nuclear plants. Appearantly the spent fuel rods still have about 85% of their potential energy when they have to be changed and they store them for 30+ years before they can be reused. New technologies are reducing the length of time needed between use of the "spent" rods, but current regulations still require the nuclear industry to wait 30+ years.
#43 May 02 2006 at 7:25 AM Rating: Decent
Quote:
the mini cooper? ROFL, in europe, it is a tiny little 3 cylinder tinker toy that gets about 60 mpg and might hold 2 skinny americans or one average american. the over powered little race car they sell here is NOTHING like the origonal. it is an americanized status symbol.


Cooper Spec in the UK (suburb of Europe).

www.mini.co.uk


Quote:
it is our attitudes toward transportation. as americans, we dont look at it from a practle since. IE, how do i spent the least amount of my resources to get to my job so i can maximize my personel income. transportation is an expence in europe, not a fassion statement like it is here. they consider cars like we consider paper towels, which one is the cheapest to buy that will do the job?.


Sorry I know it is slightly off topic, but WTF? What do you mean we think of our cars like paper towels. What about Porsche, Jaguar, Lotus, Mercedes, Lamburghini, Ferrari, BMW, Alpha Romeo, Bentley, Rolls Royce, Daimler? Thats right mate we don't use them for status symols round these parts. We all drive Jaguars!

The difference of course is in the fact that fuel is so expensive over here. We do tend to make every day cars more fuel efficiant because only the people that can afford to buy high status cars can afford to run them at our fuel prices.

Even having said that the emphasis in design is on efficiancy over engine size. Focus is more likely to be on improving aerodynamics and weight savings in order to keep the engine size to a minimum.

Just for perspective it is (approx) £0.91 (GBP) per litre of Unleaded petrol at my local station. That is about $6.31 per US gallon. I hope my conversions aren't shoddy there. Granted the fuel costs in the UK are a bit higher than those in the rest of Europe because of a stupid amount of tax, but you get the general point.
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