TheDraaken wrote:
Quote:
1. Ethanol takes more energy to produce than it actually produces.
True but because of advancing technology the price to produce ethanol would decreace over time. While the cost of gas is just going up over time.
The methods of ethanol conversion assumed for this forecast varied across technological scenarios and were chosen according to their potential for cost reduction. Cumulative cost savings as a result of process improvements were based on NREL projections for each technology,47 calculated from a base conversion cost of $0.91 per gallon. Currently, there are several projects underway to produce ethanol from cellulose using either concentrated or dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis technology. The low technology case assumed that the technology would continue to be used throughout the forecast period, and that process improvements would provide cost savings of 16 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. The countercurrent hydrolysis approach was chosen for the reference case technology. The countercurrent process improves on the dilute acid process, providing potential production cost savings of 30 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. The most advanced conversion process, with the greatest potential for cost reduction, is the enzymatic hydrolysis process. This process was assumed for the high technology case, with production cost savings of 60 cents per gallon of ethanol by 2015. Figure 8 compares ethanol price projections in the three technology cases with motor gasoline prices in the reference, low, and high world oil price cases.
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/fig_8.html
If it's comng from cellulose, it's really methanol, but who really cares if it bruns in the car, eh?
The major problem I see with ethanol is the production capacity. We'd have to grow a LOT of crops just for our fuel needs. A LOT. While that may appeal when gas hits $20/gal, the lure just isn't there right now.
Same thing with biodiesel. It's a great product, but it's not great enough for the average guy to drop his existing crops and start growing nothing but soybeans and peanuts. Let me tell you: about a quart of boiled peanuts is all a fella needs to lubricate the works for a while. After you get your quart in, you don't want much to do with the other 1000 acres or so out there.